I don't think you'll ever be able to determine a correlation in the factors behind oil that will allow you to accurately determine its price. I don't particularly follow oil, but the fact it can go from ~$130 to $40 and the whole system doesn't break down says a lot about how convoluted the price is.
Buffett bought a ton of PSX ~$70, there's a lead.
Frankly the stock market as it is now is terribly maligned thanks to the free-money mantra taken on by central banks. I'd stick to more trustworthy, hard assets rather than try to chase profits off a cliff.