Far-right Front National making big gains in French regional elections

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File: 1449618959720.jpg (577.94 KB, 800x770, 80:77, Marion_Maréchal-Le_Pen_-_2….jpg)

Far-right Front National making big gains in French regional elections Anonymous 12/08/15 (Tue) 23:55:59 No.279

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2015

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/regionales-2015/

The centre-left Union of the Left "list coalition" headed by the "Socialist" Party got hit hard by the polls while the far-right Front National more than doubled their votes in the regional elections. The centre-right Union of the Right list headed by the Republican Party saw very modest gains.

It looks like both the centre-left and the centre-right are paying the price for blatantly ignoring the wishes of the French people. It's worth noting that the majority of registered French voters abstained from voting. Which suggests that the French people feel very alienated by the "choices" that their democracy has on offer. Or worse, they just don't fucking care about French regional politics. The voter turnout was just under 50% and that figure drops down to just under 48% if you count valid votes only. 1.2% of the electorate left their ballot blank (probably a protest vote) and another 0.79% cast an invalid/spoiled ballot (some of these could be protest votes). That's fucking embarrassing.

They just completed the first round of voting Dec 6th. The second round of voting will be on the 13th in regions where no single party won a majority vote. In each region, 75% of the seats are distributed via proportional representation with a 5% minimum vote threshold for each party or list coalition. That means that in order to be represented in regional council, your party/list coalition must have had at least 5% of the vote in the first round.

The remaining 25% of seats in regional council are distributed to the party/list coalition that wins a plurality (first-past-the-post) in that region in the second round. If any one party/list coalition won a majority vote in the first round, they win the remaining 25% of seats and then there is no second round.

In the second round, parties who finished with less than 5% of the vote are completely eliminated. And if you finish between 5-10% in the first round you have to join a list coalition in order to be eligible to compete in the second round. If you have 10%+ of the vote in the first round you are allowed to advance to the second round automatically.

I'm going to do an in-depth break down of the second round for the French regional elections region-by-region in the next post. Since they don't break it down for you on Wikipedia or on the elections website.

I posted an image of Front National leader Marine Le Pen's niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen for uh "fanservice". Since she is quite the hottie. She is an elected MP in the National Assembly of France.

Anonymous 12/10/15 (Thu) 07:33:00 No.288

File: 1449732781436.png (42.08 KB, 860x280, 43:14, 2015FrenchRegionalElection….png)

Here is a simplistic visual breakdown of the first round of the French regional elections in the 12 mainland French regions.

In terms of the centre-left vs centre-right vs far-right war

- The centre-left has an opportunity to win a majority in 8 regions and an opportunity to win a minority plurality in 2 other regions (they'd have to rely on the centre-right for support to pass laws).

- The centre-right has an opportunity to win a majority in 4 regions and an opportunity to win a minority plurality in 8 regions (they'd have to rely on the centre-left for support to pass laws.)

- The far-right Front National has an opportunity to win a majority in 6 regions. They would be able to win a minority plurality in an additional 4 regions but they can't get the support they need from the other parties in council to form government (the centre-left and the centre-right have vowed not to support the far-right).

Another way of looking at the breakdown

- There are 2 regions where the winner determines whether the far-right obtains a majority or whether the centre-right governs with the support of the centre-left (central block rule).

-There is 1 region that is an effective three-way dance but only the far-right would be able to obtain a majority. If the centre-left wins, they'd have to rely on support from the centre-right. If the centre-right wins, they'd have to rely on support from the centre-left. Central Block Rule.

- There is 1 region that is a three-way dance in which both the far-right and the centre-right have a chance to win a majority. But the centre-left would have to rely on the centre-right for support if they win (central block).

- There are 2 regions where both the far-right and the centre-left have an opportunity to win majorities. But the centre-right would have to rely on the centre-left for support if they win (central block).

- There are 3 regions where the centre-left have an opportunity to win a majority but the centre-right would have to rely on the centre-left for support if they won (central block). If the far-right actually won the second-round in any of these regions, the centre-left would govern but would have to rely on the centre-right for support (central block).

- There are 3 regions where both the centre-left and centre-right have opportunities to win majorities. If the far-right somehow won the second-round in these regions, the centre-left would govern but with the support of the centre-right (central block coalition).

Conclusion: In the 4 strongest regions for the far-right Front National, the Union of the Left is getting absolutely slaughtered. But considering that there are only 4 regions in which the centre-right can win a majority, the rise of the far-right seems to be hurting them more than the leftists. Despite all the talk in the media about the Socialist Party being deflated, they are able to get the support they need from greens and other leftist groups. Overall both the centre-left and the centre-right are paying the price for sleeping on the Muslim immigration issue. And my guess is the centre-right is feeling the brunt of the damage because the French are sick and tired of Nicolas Sarkozy and the other centre-right hacks sacrificing French people to the altar of neo-liberalism. And like the centre-left, the centre-right is pro-immigration. Because the centre-right is aligned closely with the interests of the business community. And the business community likes the steady supply of cheap foreign labour (whether that labour is actually employed or kept in reserve. Since we know that the unemployment rate among Muslims in France is actually quite high compared to the general population). Cheap foreign labour keeps wages low. And having a large reserve labour force has a depressive effect on wages as well.

Both the centre-left and the centre-right need to reduce Muslim immigration and stop being so politically correct in order to win over the mass of working-class French citizens who voted for the far-right.

Anonymous 12/10/15 (Thu) 07:46:19 No.289

It's also worth noting that before 2004, France's regional council seats were distributed entirely via Proportional Representation (PR). But since 2004 both the Union of the Left and Union of the Right conspired to change the law to make it so that only 75% of the regional council seats would be distributed via PR. The remaining 25% would be distributed in a winner-take-all second-round run-off vote. Both the centre-left and the centre-right conspired to do this because they were tired of the far-right Front National holding the balance of power in a PR system. This would result in a situation in which the centre-left and the centre-right would often have to work together, forming a central block government, in order to pass legislation. Much to the irritation of all of France. Because let's face it, when you just have one big central block government, nothing really changes. Everything just remains status quo and remains the same pretty much when the top two rival parties go into bed with one another.

But you see, instead of actually reducing Muslim immigration and getting rid of the social justice warrior crap in order to compete with the far-right Front National on a democratic stage, instead the big 2 just decided to change the electoral system to make it less democratic. We can't have the far-right holding the balance of power you see. Because they are a bunch of racist fascists. So we're going to be a bunch of social justice warrior fascists instead and undermine your democracy by reducing Proportional Representation down to only 75% instead of 100% proportionality.