First-round re-cap
-Far-right Front National was leading in 6 of the 12 mainland regions in France.
-The centre-right coalition Union of the Right was leading in 4 of 12 mainland regions in France.
-The centre-left coalition Union of the Left was leading in 2 of 12 mainland regions in France.
Second-round highlights
Centre-right coalition (Union of the Right)
- WON in 7 of the 12 mainland regions in France.
- GAIN of 3 regions from far-right Front National
- HOLD of 4 regions from the first-round
Centre-left Coalition (Union of the Left)
- WON in 5 of the 12 mainland regions in France.
- GAIN of 3 regions from Far-Right Front National
- HOLD of 2 regions from first-round
- The Far-Right Front National wasn't able to maintain a lead in any of the 6 mainland Regions they led in in the first-round.
Analyzing the Defeat of the Far-Right
- In the 2 regions where the Far-Right was the strongest (Nord-Pas-de-Calais - Picardie, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur), the third-placed Union of the Left decided to bow out for the second-round and backed the Union of the Right to defeat the Far-Right. Which they successfully did. The Front National increased their overall share of the vote in the second-round. But the Union of the Right was able to beat them in the head-to-head second-round run-off.
- In Alsace - Champagne-Ardenne - Lorraine, the Union of the Right was beating the third-placed Union of the Left by a 1.6:1 margin in the first-round. But in the second-round, voters for the parties that were eliminated in the first-round decided to back the Union of the Right instead of the Union of the Left because they thought they had a better chance to beat the Far-Right. So the Union of the Right's margin over the Union of the Left increased to 3.1:1 in the second-round! The Union of the Left remained in Third. Front National slipped down to second. The Union of the Right moved up to victory.
- In Languedoc-Roussillon - Midi-Pyrénées, the Union of the Left was beating the third-place Union of the Right by a 1.3:1 margin in the first-round. But in the second-round, their margin increased to 2.1:1 due to voters of the eliminated parties backing the Union of the Left. Front National slipped to second in the second-round and Union of the Right remained in third and Union of the Left claimed first.
- In Bourgogne - Franche-Comté, the Union of the Right was beating the Union of the Left by a slim 1.04:1 margin in the first-round. Both the Union of the Left and Union of the Right decided to risk splitting the vote against the Far-Right and stayed in the second-round. The Union of the Left ended up beating out the Union of the Right by a 1.05:1 margin in the second-round despite placing third in the first-round. The voters of the eliminated parties were split but ultimately rallied a bit more behind the Union of the Left. Front National slipped to third this time in the second-round but the first-place Union of the Left had only a
1.07:1 margin over the third-placed Front National. Very tight, risky race.
- In Centre-Val de Loire, the Union of the Right had only a 1.08:1 margin lead over the third-place Union of the Left in the first-round. But ultimately the Union of the Left beat them by an anemic 1.02:1 margin in the second-round. The voters of the eliminated parties were very split, ultimately leaning ever so slightly with the Union of the Left. Front National dropped to third in the second-round. The first-place Union of the Left had a 1.18:1 margin lead over the third-place Front National in the second-round. Another close three-way race.
Conclusions
- The Union of the Left cares more about their identity politics special interest groups (Muslims, racial minorities, feminism, LGBT issues) a lot more than fiscal issues so it doesn't surprise me that they would sacrifice themselves in the second-round in the far-right's two strongest regions to make sure the socially conservative, anti-Muslim immigration Front National didn't win. Modern social democrats adopt third-way neo-liberal ideology and are traitors to the working-class. The Front National these days is more socially democratic on fiscal issues than the social democrats in France.
- The Union of the Left however didn't want to sacrifice themselves in the other three regions where they were third and Front National was first. Because they either thought they had a good chance of winning those regions for themselves (they did go on to win 2 of those regions). Or because they thought the far-right wouldn't win (Alsace - Champagne-Ardenne - Lorraine had 36.07% voting for Front National in the first-round. But the Union of the Right was beating the Union of the Left by a 1.6:1 margin. So they figured voters would vote strategically for the Union of the Right anyway to beat the far-right. And the Union of the Left figured they might as well stay in the race so that they'd get some seats.
- In those regions where the far-right had 40+% of the vote in the first-round, the Union of the Left figured the risk was too great of a far-right victory. So they bowed out of the second-round to give the second-place centre-right a better chance of dispatching the far-right.
- The Union of the Right on the other hand had no interest in sacrificing themselves in any of the regions to make sure the far-right didn't win. BASED Sarkozy. Social democrat Hollande on the other hand is a cuck.
- Ultimately it's just too difficult for the far-right to win head-to-head run-offs. They just don't have enough mainstream appeal. And in three-way dance run-offs, it still remains a challenge for them to win. They only had more than one-third of the vote in the first-round in three regions. And with the left and right conspiring to screw over the far-right, it's hard for the far-right to win a three-way run-off if they can't get one-third in the first round. Only their #3 region (Alsace - Champagne-Ardenne - Lorraine) had a three-way dance among FN's top 3 regions. And they lost there because there wasn't much voting splitting between the centre-left and centre-right (the centre-left is significantly weaker than the centre-right in that region). The far-right might have been able to win a three-way run-off in their top 2 regions. But the Union of the Left sacrificed themselves to force the far-right into a head-to-head run-off with the more mainstream centre-right.
- That all said, it's very important that the centre-left and centre-right adopt a more sane policy with regards to Muslim immigration, Islam and integration of Muslim 1st and 2nd generation migrants into their country. Their suicidal politically correct stance regarding Islam is fueling the far-right's fire. Don't be surprised if the far-right catches the centre-left and centre-right napping next time and makes them pay at the polls with some victories. I love me some beurette (North African) qts but let's think rationally about how fucking insane it is to import a whole bunch of people with values that are incompatible with western liberal democracy. With people who believe that wives should be submissive to their husband, that women should be forced to cover up and dress modestly because they think a woman is a slut who is asking for it if she doesn't, an ideology that preaches Sharia Law which includes honor killings for adultery and for abandoning Islam. Just because you are Muslim yourself and you don't believe in these things, doesn't mean that there aren't a significant number of Muslims who do. The majority of French people, Americans and Canadians rejected the current politically correct status quo stance on Muslim immigration in national polls. Yet centre-left and centre-right politicians refuse to care about what the people want.
- We need more common sense Syrian refugee and overall Muslim immigration policy. Lower numbers, tighter background checks.
And yes I think we should give priority to secular/nominal Muslims (this includes Kurds), Christian Arabs, women, children and old men and less priority to military-age men. I would prefer to import Muslim women who do not even wear a hijab. And would prefer Muslim women who wear a hijab to those who wear the niqab/burqa. I don't think women who wear a niqab/burqa should be allowed here. They have very socially conservative views. Which they will pass on to their sons and daughters. Who may one day join ISIS and wage Jihad against us.
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