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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

A collective of people engaged in pretty much what the name suggests
Winner of the 75nd Attention-Hungry Games
/caco/ - Azarath Metrion Zinthos

March 2019 - 8chan Transparency Report
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Tags: leftism (CLICK HERE FOR MORE LEFTIST 8CHAN BOARDS), politics, activism, news

File: a46710a2ed37ffd⋯.jpg (62.28 KB, 775x514, 775:514, IMG_20180205_092109.jpg)

 No.2380778

monitoring the market, trends, fluctuations

original post:

How can a lefty exploit this to their advantage? Is it too soon to try? DOW down about 1000 points since Thursday.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/05/dow-falls-300-points-open-extending-declines-last-week/306400002/

Post last edited at

 No.2829915

>>2829516

>>2829298

They finna radically unionize though.

>>2829327

>thinking Dems won't nominate like it's 2016


 No.2829940

If the market crashes in the next few months or so, what effect do you think it will have on the 2020 election?


 No.2829949

File: cf8003622ab962a⋯.jpg (299.44 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190304-125104….jpg)

File: 1623b9f7c99b4df⋯.jpg (18.27 KB, 388x443, 388:443, 923a743063c4b990c169df2b1a….jpg)

Yes YES YEEEESSSSSS


 No.2829955

File: e3d50f8d0b3e1fb⋯.jpg (300.14 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190304-125844….jpg)

-400 OR BUST


 No.2829957

File: 47e588375eb2ee4⋯.jpg (7.25 KB, 240x240, 1:1, YqzS9U2U_400x400.jpg)

>>2829949

Wait, this can actually be the one plunge that breaks the economy


 No.2829963

File: 42e4b057e9c95b0⋯.jpg (298.31 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190304-130345….jpg)

-1.5%


 No.2829964

>>2829957

Yes

Tbh Possibly but i wouldnt bet on it


 No.2829967

File: 9f85d565a70a417⋯.jpg (289.52 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190304-130620….jpg)

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400


 No.2829974

>>2829940

depends how it's spun

but logic would dictate it would hurt incumbent party


 No.2829975

>>2829516

>after

there already is a permanent underclass here

the time to invest in dollar stores was like 9 years ago, they've been doing amazing since the recession


 No.2829976

File: d814f6efa971450⋯.png (512.17 KB, 838x689, 838:689, wUOTuTw.png)

>>2829967

This market is schizophrenic


 No.2829982

File: 7a885c414d7a41b⋯.png (50.13 KB, 955x339, 955:339, screenshot-www.marketwatch….png)

File: 77919fa9d4a2d73⋯.png (589 B, 26x23, 26:23, screenshot-www.marketwatch….png)

File: 1ebe374983e2a77⋯.jpg (30.17 KB, 600x600, 1:1, 64198749.jpg)


 No.2829984

File: 45e35f584d4c32d⋯.jpg (8.04 KB, 273x185, 273:185, download.jpg)

>2829982

You DO understand that this isn't the end of history and that the market will crash in fire eventually?


 No.2829988

>>2829982

Imagine desperately getting an erection and dick stroking over a tiny ass recovery


 No.2829993

>>2829984

>>2829988

One year and a month has passed since the "happening".

And nothing has "happened".

The markets are stronger than ever, see how up and green it is, even bigger than before the supposed "happening".

Markets go up and down, and after going down, now it goes up, sorry for hurting your feelings, but feelings don't care about facts and the free market.

I'm sorry for you, but you should grow up, pal.


 No.2829996

>>2829993

>but feelings don't care about facts and the free market.

Sorry, I wanted to say: but facts and the free market don't care about your feelings.


 No.2829997

>>2829993

>>2829996

the free market doesn't exist


 No.2830001

File: ab9c93dc1735222⋯.jpg (86.91 KB, 1058x1059, 1058:1059, mcMkXCs.jpg)

>>2829993

>Ignoring the point that the markets will crash eventually + facts don't care about feelings

<This one will go far


 No.2830005

File: 0029b1243d2403d⋯.jpeg (2.28 MB, 3008x2000, 188:125, comeatme.jpeg)

3 PM gang don't fail us now


 No.2830006

>>2830001

why is his face so small?


 No.2830009

>>2830005

you mean a gang of three prime ministers or a gang that appear at 3 pm


 No.2830014

File: fbf0b57e0c09d2d⋯.png (438.1 KB, 1083x554, 1083:554, 282468.png)

>>2829993

Gryn bi fluf fluf


 No.2830015

File: b950850947ff983⋯.gif (1.76 MB, 500x500, 1:1, godyes.gif)

>>2830009

I have no idea who the 3PM gang is, they use to protect the fall of the dow a few months ago with the Christmas crash, but they stopped posting and now 3PM always goes back up. I can only up that these memetic offerings will bring back the 3PM gang, and we will be blessed with a harvest of red once again.


 No.2830016

>>2829984

It's PPG dude. For them, it IS the end of history, because when the market crashes they'll kill themselves so they never have to face the world post-crash. And as far as they're concerned, history ends when they OD on coke and nothing that happens after that really matters.


 No.2830018

>>2830015

oh, you are the esoteric nigga


 No.2830035

>>2830015

We may need some more sacrifices in order to bring back 3pm gang anon

great blot when


 No.2830037

File: e84efbdbbbe0851⋯.png (1.49 MB, 1200x675, 16:9, jKrt5Tp.png)

im starting to love mondays


 No.2830041

>>2829993

>One year and a month has passed since the "happening".

what are you even talking about?


 No.2830045

>>2830041

The day this thread started the dow crashed by more than 1100 points which people pointed to as a sign of immenint collapse


 No.2830051

>>2830037

Black mondays are best Mondays


 No.2830054

File: bb82eafc1d695f7⋯.png (1.08 MB, 1080x1288, 135:161, tiresom.png)

>>2830041

I think what PPG is trying to say is that you're wrong because there was another anon once that was wrong so fuck you anon, stop being such a pleb.


 No.2830059

File: eed1dae0844ace6⋯.png (170.54 KB, 1920x1080, 16:9, ClipboardImage.png)

File: fc57bdf2e2acbbe⋯.png (172.26 KB, 1920x1080, 16:9, ClipboardImage.png)

File: e6c80589c55b7fa⋯.png (159.47 KB, 1920x1080, 16:9, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2830045

I see

I didn't get it cause there was a recovery and the top was only 6 months ago and we broke the uptrend from 2008 only 4 months ago


 No.2830098

File: 3ae947942f62f22⋯.png (33.65 KB, 611x475, 611:475, 0057609768535872436060651.png)

Going down again


 No.2830101

>>2830098

when the fuck is it gonna crash


 No.2830102

File: 64641db7916dc32⋯.jpg (130.44 KB, 1280x720, 16:9, mpv-shot0001.jpg)

>>2829957

ONE PLUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNGEEEEEEE


 No.2830106

New Michael Roberts

Macro modelling MMT

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2019/03/03/macro-modelling-mmt/

Holy fuck, will MMT ever recover?


 No.2830110

File: 3a7d3a78943467e⋯.jpg (15.16 KB, 302x167, 302:167, 561361364262.jpg)

>>2830101

I spoke with the Supreme being, he personally says that it will crash on 17th of Frimaire


 No.2830118

File: f88ddf6d5a2c681⋯.jpg (54.37 KB, 573x921, 191:307, mutualismcatgirl.jpg)

3 PM Gang has blessed us on this day


 No.2830195

File: 4224aed488def64⋯.png (46.63 KB, 986x535, 986:535, PMI.PNG)

February PMI at 54.2, in case anyone missed it. https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1

Exports continue to expand, at slightly stronger rates compared to January. The manufacturing sector continues to expand, but inputs and prices indicate easing of supply chain constraints.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 reported growth in February, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The only industry reporting contraction in February is Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

“Strong domestics market. Slow export markets.” (Paper Products)

“Demand remains healthy at the beginning of 2019. However, growing concerns for what could be another round of tariffs in March are further escalating price increases of already constrained electronic components. Expect to see increased lead times and prices throughout Q1 and Q2.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

“Strong start to the year, though weather has been a challenge.” (Chemical Products)

“Still fairly steady with production and services.” (Transportation Equipment)

“Economy showing general strength, especially in manufacturing. Cost pressures and tariff challenges persist but are manageable. General outlook is for stability and potential improvement in the second half of 2019.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

“Orders remain strong. Supplier delivery continues to be challenged on some commodities.” (Machinery)

“Aerospace engine-related business continues to be strong. Energy and general industry-related business is flat to down.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

“Business so far this year is meeting, but not exceeding, our forecast. We are concerned about indicators showing a slight recession for the second half of the calendar year.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

"Uncertainty of steel prices due to Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and lack of resolution of the anti-dumping trade cases.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

“General business conditions started to slow at the end of January, continuing through February.” (Plastics and Rubber Products)


 No.2830199

>>2830106

my reply on there:

Thank you for this series of posts on MMT, I really had no clue about the ideology before reading them, and now I know to look out for it!

However, leaving aside the MMTer’s denial that their policy would cause inflation (IE, assuming it does cause inflation), I think their policy really could be beneficial to the bourgeoisie. Say we have a toy economy whose productive sector outputs $100 of goods. If the government prints an additional $20 which they subsequently spend on stuff, and their political role as money printers isn’t challenged, they have effectively done a 16% flat tax across the whole economy. A flat tax, as opposed to a progressive tax, has traditionally been championed by certain schools of libertarians/free marketers. From a Marxist point of view, the question is whether this “flat tax” simply propagates via cost of labor into reduced profits (meaning we don’t care), or whether it actively lowers the worker’s standard of living (seems pretty likely, meaning we are against it).

There’s an added dimension to it in the age of imperialism. The USA is able to force other countries to hold US$ and trade using them due to its dominant position. There’s a similar situation with some other currencies. If the USA prints a bunch of extra dollars but only injects them into the US economy, they are taxing all of the holders of US$ equally, but only spending the revenue on the US economy. This mechanism is why MMTers say they don’t have to fear inflation so much. Due to power politics, the USA could probably enact this policy to a moderate extent without collapsing their currency and chasing everyone away from the dollar and towards, EG, the RMB.

So with that in mind, and correct me if I’m wrong on any of this, it would seem that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s MMT GND financing scheme is actually an imperialist tax, which is very alarming! It would also be very consistent with the history of Western social democrats, like Attlee for instance.


 No.2830219

>>2830199

I've temporarily deactivated my Facebook account because I'm sick of getting kicked from Marxist groups for arguing with Dengists/transphobes and arguing with "democratic socialists" over their shitty economics, specifically MMT. Solid post


 No.2830817

File: 38625c7c6337b73⋯.jpg (509.16 KB, 2480x3508, 620:877, mommy.jpg)

the grace of 3PM gang is with us this morning


 No.2830831

File: 22c57d45570ce91⋯.png (56.68 KB, 964x337, 964:337, screenshot-www.marketwatch….png)

>>2830817

It's in the green tho.


 No.2830833

File: 009dfc0840c018a⋯.jpg (218.89 KB, 640x640, 1:1, me__irl.jpg)

>>2830831

the sun rose high in the sky and the shadow of the 3PM gang shrunk, but fret not! for there will be another sunset again children


 No.2830852

>>2830831

All I've got to say to you is >>2830014


 No.2831064

File: 8a93566fbaac28e⋯.png (198.68 KB, 600x335, 120:67, su.png)

the 3PM gang saved us at the last minute


 No.2831204

China Faces Economic Slowdown

>Chinese premier Li Keqiang says the country is facing a "tough struggle"

https://open.live.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/6/redir/version/2.0/mediaset/audio-nondrm-download-low/proto/https/vpid/p072pfwq.mp3


 No.2831270

BTC dumping.


 No.2831280

File: cbeadc0e593a6d3⋯.jpeg (32.36 KB, 300x168, 25:14, prague shall be eliminate….jpeg)

>>2831204

>Chinese economic stagnation

yes please holy fuck


 No.2831326

>>2831280

>Dengist-Brezhnevism

This isn’t what the left is suppose to be.


 No.2831337

>>2831270

it's already back


 No.2831602

File: db61fcec64a3f9e⋯.png (38.43 KB, 433x531, 433:531, wtf.png)

>>2831337

It was actually a glitch on coinmarketcap itself, they removed and added back an exchange.

Now this, though..


 No.2831603

File: 425d14e7efaa58a⋯.jpg (99.46 KB, 1080x1275, 72:85, adulthilda.jpg)

The morning breaks on a red dawn thanks to the 3PM gang


 No.2831618

File: 69167815079ee80⋯.jpg (291.87 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190306-111453….jpg)

Poosh eet sideways


 No.2831621

File: d264b70e7cdb65f⋯.jpg (176.02 KB, 1079x607, 1079:607, Crash gang.jpg)

>>2831603

Crashing this market with no survivors anon

comfy af image anon


 No.2831626

File: da8b5f7bba05fe2⋯.jpg (3.38 KB, 211x208, 211:208, Screenshot_20190306-112251….jpg)

File: 9bd6907eeda94b5⋯.jpg (288.94 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190306-112246….jpg)

*slide whistle sound effect*


 No.2831641

File: cca413346373112⋯.jpg (314.66 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190306-114316….jpg)

-100


 No.2831646

File: 0b63dec7ad74c9a⋯.png (26.18 KB, 730x365, 2:1, FTSE 100.png)

File: b74da7271872982⋯.png (20.97 KB, 728x369, 728:369, FTSE 250.png)

File: 4bdf09fb2d6b35e⋯.png (25.41 KB, 726x375, 242:125, FTSE 350.png)

File: d645141107c0657⋯.png (21.14 KB, 718x367, 718:367, FTSE AIM 100.png)

File: 39ac8ec47c32c01⋯.png (25.17 KB, 719x375, 719:375, FTSE AS.png)

10 year analysis of the FTSE markets showing an overall upward trend. not what i was expecting.


 No.2831664

>wages are still growing

>Fed can't raise interest rates because it would crash the US economy

How long can this keep going? It's like a fucking zombie.


 No.2831669

>>2831664

The inflation is gonna be pretty dank.


 No.2831677

>>2831669

>Dank

Dollars

Are

Now

Kindling


 No.2831685


 No.2831741

File: 54ad504ce9f7eda⋯.jpg (439.02 KB, 1437x808, 1437:808, musk.jpg)

What is /leftypol/s opinion on billionares like Elon Musk?


 No.2831742


 No.2831752

>>2831741

>What is /leftypol/s opinion on billionares

Are you retarded? Why would you even ask?


 No.2831788

>>2831741

musk is the de facto example of a rich lunatic. launched a car into orbit, funds all kinds of flashy but dead end projects, and has a fanclub for some reason


 No.2831790

File: beea67ea32f0427⋯.png (210.43 KB, 871x900, 871:900, christchan.png)

protect us in this hour of need 3PM gang, smite the DOW


 No.2831792

File: db7a5cee2b3adfe⋯.png (19.05 KB, 725x399, 725:399, Dow Jones.png)

>>2831790

lol no


 No.2831795

>>2831790

Their new strategy is to start a red scare to keep wages low while also keeping IR down to so that America's cancerous bourg can still get free money for their shitty start ups and other unprofitable companies. When it collapses they will probably blame the left for it.


 No.2831862

>>2831795

I don't know if that can actually really work that well though. The bourgeoisie is cunning, but not really geniuses.


 No.2831931

>>2831862

It'll work if they can keep the economy limping along until a succdem replaces Trump. Then they can let the bubble pop under the new president and blame socialism for destroying the economy.


 No.2832465

File: 9e32c7ea1ac6472⋯.png (118.74 KB, 1916x566, 958:283, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

GOOD MORNING LEFTYPOL


 No.2832466

File: d3bd337b74ecb4f⋯.png (120.2 KB, 1934x566, 967:283, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

>>2832465

YEEEEEEEEEEHHHAAAAWWWWWWWWW


 No.2832470

File: a118984ffd2e3d4⋯.png (493 B, 17x36, 17:36, Screenshot_2019-03-07 Dow ….png)

Lmao, already recovering


 No.2832474

File: 241377997fec20f⋯.png (122.6 KB, 1948x558, 974:279, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

File: 011e6a78af0acbf⋯.png (7.58 KB, 108x134, 54:67, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

>>2832470

nice cherry pic lmao


 No.2832475

File: 3223e5e27a8e526⋯.png (124.11 KB, 1944x578, 972:289, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

1%


 No.2832478

File: 7f4face77bec667⋯.png (123.84 KB, 1924x576, 481:144, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

Even more red


 No.2832479

File: 1d128b534e29ece⋯.png (123.09 KB, 1966x560, 983:280, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

-300


 No.2832480

File: aa2b21b7a49581a⋯.png (209.59 KB, 545x578, 545:578, isitporn.png)

the light of the 3PM gang shines on us


 No.2832483

File: f20c861fc505b19⋯.gif (644.74 KB, 495x378, 55:42, a23ab7f65113ed2c3824147308….gif)


 No.2832485

File: 4fd2315db89d87c⋯.jpg (195.25 KB, 1300x1031, 1300:1031, 13653616546343.jpg)

But it wuz gryn


 No.2832488


 No.2832507

File: f8402f34c3bc042⋯.png (163.35 KB, 1680x1050, 8:5, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2832470

>recovering


 No.2832509

DAE remember trump saying the economy is very good very strong the best during december/january stock buybacks?

did these fuckers unironically release recovery news just to pump and dump on retail investors?


 No.2832511

>>2832509

Trump is a senile old man. "the economy is very good" when you look at january "growth" which barely makes up for the december dip that ate through a year and more of growth.

We're headed for a market crash, it's just a timing game now.


 No.2832516

>>2832511

Trump is basically the perfect analogy for the economy. A rotting mess that will get an aneurism any second


 No.2832567

File: 7f66db158c0fbd5⋯.png (136.86 KB, 1888x550, 944:275, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

dow is back on track after the "Recovery"


 No.2832573

File: 2716d83b1df6557⋯.png (138.99 KB, 1912x552, 239:69, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

back to 1%

3pm gang bless us now


 No.2832582

>>2832573

>>2832567

Didn't some anon say it was going to go back up, then plunge even worse in March?


 No.2832587

>>2832582

yeah i think it was that one biz screencap of that guy who claimed he knew friends in the us government


 No.2832588

>>2832582

LMAO, that anon sure sounds like a stupid leftard idiot nigger gaylord.

amirite guys?

>>2832587

>My father works at nintendo.


 No.2832590

>>2832588

curb thyne edge


 No.2832591

>>2832587

also i think he said something on the lines of greater inflation in march not a market crash but eh close enough


 No.2832602

File: 0b80a09d274f39c⋯.png (143.81 KB, 1960x554, 980:277, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

ding ding ding dow down 200 points today making a 4 day losing streak


 No.2832775

File: 052f45b953a81a6⋯.png (119.26 KB, 1916x554, 958:277, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

OOOOOOFFF


 No.2832776

File: c83353f867f6c59⋯.png (128.08 KB, 1990x602, 995:301, Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at ….png)

china btfo


 No.2832834

File: 15807ce590d86e9⋯.png (22.44 KB, 877x249, 877:249, Capture.PNG)

holy fuck


 No.2832856

>>2832775

>>2832776

>>2832834

What are the futures looking like?


 No.2833010


 No.2833037

File: dc4d70823ea5b21⋯.png (26.87 KB, 489x183, 163:61, 1.png)


 No.2833043

File: b4651c7c6abca30⋯.png (30.84 KB, 549x191, 549:191, 1.png)

File: 9edbce31c004181⋯.png (33.06 KB, 546x202, 273:101, 2.png)

>>2833037

EU, Asia doing a poopoo


 No.2833048

File: 14b16d15a6d3e77⋯.png (120.27 KB, 1147x410, 1147:410, 1.png)

File: 1dd19e6d620bded⋯.jpg (11.83 KB, 240x160, 3:2, older-man-yells-phone-ange….jpg)

>>2815680

36.75 billion buyback coming thru!


 No.2833059

dow already at -171


 No.2833066

Big question, what is the left going to do when the market crashes. It would definitely be an opportune moment for agitation, but are there any solid plans for action?


 No.2833077

>>2833048

What is the incentive for companies to make buy backs? Especially in this turbulent market?

Is there a chart somewhere that shows buybacks in the last years?

>>2833066

this is an international chinese cartoons discussion club, ask your local union.


 No.2833086

File: e2ca3f0145e27aa⋯.png (130.99 KB, 1946x580, 973:290, Screen Shot 2019-03-08 at ….png)

STAY DOWN


 No.2833091

File: 3bb50591066cc97⋯.png (253.66 KB, 628x546, 314:273, 1.png)


 No.2833093

>>2833091

Nah, it is the last verse of Pete Seeger's "Garbage" >>2829543


 No.2833152

>>2833077

>What is the incentive for companies to make buy backs? Especially in this turbulent market?

It seems to me that they squeeze profits and funnel them to the CEO which fucks up production and they under-perform so the stock price starts to fall and then they put up half their profits(billions of dollars) at a "major support"

eg: the dow tops at 26000 and starts to fall towards 20000(the 2017 average) so the buybackers start buying at 210000 and retail starts to think its not falling so it swings back up towards 250000 and they just dump all over retail for a quick 3% gain on a billion dollars.

eg: tesla falls to $200, elon puts 5 billion of his own money in over a 6 month period to hide it among other orders and not make a scene. He moves the price +200 and the price naturally moves +200 so 6 months later its at $600 he dumps his load making 66% and everyone who didn't know loses ~33% on average. This is legal and not considered manipulation.

It honestly looks like wash trading im not sure how its legal. It literally functions as a pump and dump. At the same I'm always amazed that there's all these regulations on what is clearly a fucking ponzi. Its laughable that they think making rules that are impossible to enforce makes it legitimate. Wash trading and pumping is literally a min/max game strategy that is super incentivised by the market.

When I scalp bitcoin you can literally watch the bots place fake orders and pump up the price just to fill there shorts 1% above market rate. This is happening on every asset on every time scale all day long.

im getting annoyed trying to find sources for my claims

google has no results for "what is the difference between a stock buyback and a pump and dump". free markets are a mind numbing joke

fucking ideology


 No.2833156

>>2833152

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insider-stock-sales-by-company-executives-soar-to-a-record-pace/

>"Insiders have been committing lots of money for stock buybacks, and they're not doing buybacks because they think stocks are cheap. They're doing to it to pump up the stock so they can sell it," said David Santschi, director of liquidity research at TrimTabs.

>Some investors like buybacks because they boost the value of the rest of the company's stock. They also bolster top executives' pay, much of which comes in the form of shares. But they're a purely financial play that don't improve a company's position in the long term, the way investing in equipment or in hiring might.

>Buybacks have come under scrutiny of late, with Securities and Exchange Commissioner Robert Jackson calling them out in a recent speech. "We give stock to corporate managers to convince them to create the kind of long-term value that benefits American companies and the workers and communities they serve," he said. "Instead, what we are seeing is that executives are using buybacks as a chance to cash out their compensation at investor expense." In June, a group of senators asked the SEC to review its buyback rules.

>Said Santschi: "Insiders are doing one thing with their own money, and another thing with shareholders' money."


 No.2833159

File: 8619a8172ac1ad4⋯.mp4 (8.56 MB, 640x360, 16:9, wolffbuybacks.mp4)

File: b13f28fbd574ae7⋯.mp4 (3.68 MB, 1280x720, 16:9, didwerecoverfrom2007.mp4)


 No.2833161

>>2833156

https://prospect.org/article/time-to-ban-stock-buybacks

> Corporate executives are highly incentivized to use profits (or even take on debt) to do buybacks, since it both appeases aggressive activist investors and balloons their own stock-option-based compensation.

>All in all, corporate America has pledged 30 times more to buying back its own shares than to investing in its workforces.

>44 companies on the S&P 500 have promised more money to workers through either bonuses or wage increases as a consequence of the new tax law, which comes to $5.2 billion—$3.7 billion in one-time bonuses and $1.5 billion in wage bumps.

>34 companies on the S&P 500 have announced $157.6 billion in stock buybacks since December, the analysis found.

>The issue is what are they not doing when they do stock buybacks,” Lazonick tells The American Prospect. “What they’re not doing is keeping people employed longer, paying them more, and giving them more benefits. There’s a direct connection between the decline of those norms and the rise of buybacks and the legitimized ideology of ‘Shareholder First.’”

>The buybacks, Lazonick says, make clear that corporations have become tools for value extraction rather than value creation.

>In 1982, Securities and Exchange Commission chief John Shad, the first Wall Street executive to take up the post, and his fellow Reagan appointees to the SEC instituted a rule, formally known as 10b-18, that allows corporate executives to buy back shares and grants them immunity from stock-price manipulation regulations so long as they follow certain restraints. In 2015, 77 percent of compensation for S&P 500 CEOs came from stock-based options and bonuses.

>Also known as the “safe harbor” rule, 10b-18 technically says that companies must follow daily limits on much stock they can buy back. But the SEC does not even have the authority to collect the data necessary to police buybacks. “That means firms are protected from any liability that the SEC could bring for manipulative practices,” Lenore Palladino, senior economist and policy counsel at the Roosevelt Institute, tells the Prospect.

>Companies are acting more and more like banks—holding assets and earning interest—and less like businesses that make money through the sale of goods and services or invest their profits in their workforce and other productive ventures. As she notes, the amount of financial holdings held by companies in the “non-financial corporate sector” (i.e., not banks) topped $2 trillion in 2015. Just 30 companies hold financial portfolios worth more than $1.2 trillion.


 No.2833168

File: 40be788f8a57568⋯.jpg (7.34 KB, 225x225, 1:1, 62536546.jpg)

>>2833159

>Economy literally is an ouroboros

Now that's based!


 No.2833234

File: d36e9e2fc6efe76⋯.png (157.12 KB, 1948x576, 487:144, Screen Shot 2019-03-08 at ….png)

PPG got cucked. The dow still in the red marking off a 5 day week long losing streak. Press d to dab on ppg

D


 No.2833475

File: dcbe9f006c1f18f⋯.mp4 (6.37 MB, 450x360, 5:4, CORN.mp4)

slow and steady wins the race, the 3PM gang's power isn't one of instant gratification


 No.2833818

so is that it? companies create a final rally by buying back stocks so hedge funds can get a good short entry for the next recession?


 No.2833829

>>2833818

they already did that they're just double dipping


 No.2833848

>>2833234

fuck off bears, interest rate cut soon


 No.2833942

>>2833829

This. They are already doing that. It's going to crumble hilariously.


 No.2833954

>>2833077

>What is the incentive for companies to make buy backs?

It's the quickest way to distribute profits from a company to the eternal porky. Especially when there is no point reinvesting it because of trpf, and proles not being able to afford to buy more goods and services and so on and so on

>Is there a chart somewhere that shows buybacks in the last years?

Yes, I posted it already >>2829232


 No.2834250


 No.2834505

god damn boomers and their fucking weekend 9-5 markets are so boring

short dow on saturdays when


 No.2835376

File: 81e8f999fcfbb61⋯.jpg (282.4 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190311-095417….jpg)

stay down goddamnit


 No.2835521

>two massive economic plunges within the same year

>over a year of stagnant economic growth driven mostly by tax cuts and buy backs

>no one has any idea how to get the economy going again

>multiple currency failures such as those in Argentina and Turkey

>another year of record breaking strike actions around the globe

>resurgence of socialism

<hurr durr nuvin habden dumm ghomies


 No.2835543

>>2835521

Yep. Whatever growth Wall St. has been celebrating was already absorbed by the two dips. This is worse than stagnating and when it will be widely noticed, there will be nowhere to run to.


 No.2835623

Is there a way I can make money off of the next economic collapse? That'd be pretty cool.


 No.2835659

>>2835623

short the SPY


 No.2835660

>>2835623

Physical gold is the way to go.


 No.2835818

>>2833152

>google has no results for "what is the difference between a stock buyback and a pump and dump". free markets are a mind numbing joke

You commies just cant handle all these freedoms.


 No.2835860

File: ae19c61027ae591⋯.gif (632.52 KB, 1500x994, 750:497, understanding-hedge-funds.gif)


 No.2835882

>>2835860

Unironically though. If we're looking at a monetary crisis, precious metals esp. gold will go through the roof.


 No.2835896

>>2835882

if we're looking at a real crisis though, regular rocks are about as effective at bashing skulls etc.


 No.2836049

>>2835882

didn't mean to be smug or anything, you just reminded me of that ebin pic :D


 No.2836231


 No.2836287

>>2835896

What if there was an intermediary between "capitalism has no contradictions" and "civilization is going to collapse back to the stone age any moment now"


 No.2836308

>>2836231

>i don't like the word neoliberalism

Getting tired of this meme. Even the introductory paragraphs are wrong. Neoliberalism means something, it's the historical form capitalism has undertaken since the 1970s.


 No.2836313

>>2836308

They don't like the label "neoliberalism" because they want to go back to the time when neoliberalism was SO dominant that you didn't even need to label it, because there wasn't anything else to contrast it with. As part of the hegemon no one needed to call themselves neoliberal or advocate for neoliberalism, because that's all there was.


 No.2836319

>>2836231

excellent article

>>2836308

>>2836313

He's right in that it is or is becoming a mystifying euphemism for capitalism or 'bad capitalism' as opposed to social democracy or 'good capitalism.' You're right that neoliberal has a specific meaning, but it's not like regular people know that.


 No.2836323

>>2836319

The text really says nothing about a naive understanding of neoliberalism, it directly attacks the label, at least that's what I got from the introduction that really made me frown enough to feel like reading something else.


 No.2836406

>>2836323

you are an illiterate brainlet.


 No.2836412

File: 0d8feb004504a45⋯.png (506.9 KB, 500x420, 25:21, kuvira.png)

may the 3PM gang bring us to red prosperity on this day


 No.2836423

more countries are banning the 737, Boeing is gonna get hammered by 3pm gang


 No.2836424

File: fa5986da0a27409⋯.png (24.51 KB, 882x254, 441:127, boeing ate shit.PNG)

>>2836423

holy fuck plunge gang destroying boeing


 No.2836425

File: 8ea357b83b5b5dd⋯.jpg (20.2 KB, 400x300, 4:3, bob.jpg)

>>2836424

>FAA going full Baghdad bob


 No.2836429

>>2836424

>>2836424

Thats what you get when you planes fall apart in the air.


 No.2836431

File: 56a00a8f4f1cd94⋯.png (85.2 KB, 370x323, 370:323, 1534285021404.png)

>>2836424

Holy fuck


 No.2836435

File: 37bc0cc679fbd8e⋯.png (16.8 KB, 804x145, 804:145, wew.PNG)


 No.2836437

>>2836424

>it's a literal plunge


 No.2836640

>>2834250

not really. access to financial instruments are heavily regulated so you cant really short. i guess you could figure out options but you wont really get meaningful leverage. if you don't have a lot of money you can only get 50-80 percent return maximum.

if you have a lot of money you could get accredited and short $X00K and hedge or get real leverage.

i wonder if theres like an unregulated exchange that operates outside US that you could use. you'd be at huge risk for your money strait up disappearing but as long as 'everyones doing it' you could get in and out. afiak its only illegal to offer the service, not to use it. I wanted to short tesla when musk was making an asshole of himself but robinhood etc only let you buy not short and accredited exchanges want a $10,000 deposit and a passport or you to be a regulated day trader which have to have a balance of $250,000 and register w IRS

The most risk averse thing to do is try to work through the crash and buy capital when things are -50% to -80% discounted.

>>2835818

>freedoms

idk if your just false flagging but learning trading really highlights how much of a joke the "free market" is, as shown above. it is immediately obvious that everything that actually generates profit is illegal for the individual and is constantly being performed by large corporations with impunity. capitalism always drives accumulation and then those that accumulate write the rules for the next iteration of the cycle. capitalism == corporatism


 No.2836661

File: 46b9712be8e622d⋯.jpg (66.9 KB, 500x500, 1:1, 1378820440141.jpg)

>>2836424

Plane companies are the absolute example of too big to fail and why monopolies (or minimal competition) are inevitable under capitalism.

the engenieering and safety standards are so complex and expensive it's impossible to compete. All the while the industry is crucial for modern society so govs can't afford to let them crash if they perform poorly.


 No.2836749

>>2836661

That why in USSR, directors of industrial enterprises were accountable for their shitty decision before the society and can be thrown into gulag if the mistake was intentional. No need for free competition or voting by your money bullshit, just throw the bastards into prison. Why there is no capitalists and managers who caused the 2008 crash in the prison?


 No.2836791

>>2836424

What's really stupid about the Dow is that it's price weighted. So Boeing has a stupidly large weight in the Dow. When Boeing moves, the rest of the market moves. This is a really informative video on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLt37SxNPt8


 No.2836801

>>2836749

>Why there is no capitalists and managers who caused the 2008 crash in the prison?

Gee I wonder.


 No.2836962

>>2836791

If the Dow is that easy to manipulate, then it's obvious why Trump cares so much about it.

Government gives defense contracts to Boeing -> Boeing share price increases -> Dow disproportionately increases -> economy looks good


 No.2837385

US just grounded the 737's

rip Boeing stock


 No.2837390

>>2837385

So did Canada, and they're evidently the only country besides the US that flies them.

Boeing is fucked.


 No.2837419

>>2837385

I'm wating for planes to be run by walled garden systems that nobody has any overrides to and the pilots have to call customer support to eventually get a manager that could remote into the system and use an override to have the plane not crash.


 No.2837435

File: 79f6abd8e0fbc60⋯.jpg (149.59 KB, 1280x1126, 640:563, Batman_The_Dark_Knight_Ris….jpg)

>crashing the entire Boeing fleet with no survivors


 No.2837446

>>2836962

The us military gets so much money in part because it's basically a stealth jobs program/wealth redistribution/market inflator. If you snapped your fingers and the usm was to suddenly disappear, the US would collapse almost immediately.


 No.2837709

>>2837446

the old "military Keynesianism"


 No.2837819

>>2837709

Worked fine for Hitler.


 No.2837821

>>2837819

Until it didn't.


 No.2837826


 No.2837841

>>2837446

Oh man could you imagine if someone who ran an anti-military platform elected into the oval office? It would literally end like the Patrice Lumumba administration


 No.2837883

File: 6084d5b872a2bd6⋯.png (48.41 KB, 624x512, 39:32, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2837385

lol the market is still up faggots


 No.2837885


 No.2837890

File: 1bd5d86f90430b2⋯.png (413.36 KB, 948x1731, 316:577, 001.png)

File: 479622536a98641⋯.png (186.43 KB, 945x1761, 315:587, 002.png)

File: 32246b8c7e75812⋯.jpg (103.84 KB, 640x487, 640:487, 1484695570391.jpg)

File: 481341b25c16524⋯.png (76.46 KB, 740x581, 740:581, 1529118143638.png)

File: c0de4393f356c0b⋯.png (236.49 KB, 1279x1615, 1279:1615, naziconomics.png)


 No.2838041

>>2837890

So much for Not Socialist, lower the wage of worker after taking power. What is the name of this book?


 No.2838043

File: 52c6ee642271283⋯.pdf (7.68 MB, [Adam_Tooze,_J._Adam_Tooze….pdf)


 No.2838263

>>2837841

Yeah, it would most likely end with three shots to the back of the head in an apparent suicide.

>>2837709

Yeah, essentially. Military bases act as economic tent poles. They're basically miniature cities where the wages tend higher than the regional average and for various reasons the population has more disposable income than the native economy. They're huge economic systems in themselves that support local parasite economies.

Military industrial work tends to pay much better than local jobs as well, like $30 an hour to sew parachutes or assemble helmets or whatever. Naturally these high wages make them desirable and encourage loyalty to the military/government.

One of the reasons legislators are so keen on winning military allocations to their state is because it's one of the few "direct" ways for them to inject capital into their economies. People were trying to give Sanders shit because he got some F16s based in Vermont (or something like that) when it's objectively one of the most beneficial things he could do for his state (within the context of American politics/economics etc).


 No.2843335

File: d2b3770a2be7bc0⋯.jpeg (66.34 KB, 659x543, 659:543, nikkei.jpeg)

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.62% at 21,584.50

You know what they say…as goes the Nikkei, so goes the Nation (the nation being DJIA).

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/nikkei-225-closes-higher-by-at-20190318


 No.2843340

File: 284f0b7c762ba42⋯.jpg (39.84 KB, 675x1200, 9:16, DYs2rhQX0AAhWS8.jpg)

>>2843335

>Chip-related stocks were the ones leading the charge for the Nikkei, fueled by gains seen in Wall Street last Friday. However, the slightly weaker Japanese trade balance report earlier is helping to temper gains seen on the day.

The S&P500 is coming up above the reaching the November highs, just 110 basis points to go to reach a new all-time high.

>That said, risk sentiment remains positive as we're seeing Chinese stocks post solid gains as well. The Shanghai Composite is up by 1.6% on the day currently. It'll be a big week for equities which will be dominated by central bank proceedings with the Fed set to meet on Wednesday.

The Fed will hold rates and China-US trade talks continuing to improve should drive the market up.

>The FOMC meeting will be a key focus for equities/risk in the coming sessions so just be wary of that. In the mean time, the more optimistic tones to start the week is still helping the aussie and kiwi keep up with gains as we gear towards European trading.

Looking at maybe the last week of big gains before March 28th which could already be priced in.


 No.2843341

>>2836424

prepare for buyback


 No.2843425


 No.2845678

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/20/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged.html

Rip, they aren't changing rates for the rest of the year :(

Is this it ? Collapse averted?


 No.2845683

File: 49075404473707f⋯.gif (3.45 MB, 720x440, 18:11, 490.gif)


 No.2845688

File: 8f91a8d2082d627⋯.png (79.57 KB, 657x705, 219:235, yield_curve.png)

>>2845683

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/fed-holds-rates-steady-eyes-end-to-balance-sheet-unwind-in-september-1813333

>The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said it would stop its balance-sheet reduction program in September amid concerns over slowing growth both domestically and abroad.

Yield curve BTFO!


 No.2845690

>>2845678

Fed keeps the rates low/lower them : speculative bubbles inflate faster because there's no growth

Feds raise the rates : bubbles pop the second they do that, triggering an apocalyptic meltdown

They can't win. Keeping the rates low is just buying more time but it's gonna pop no matter what.


 No.2845692

File: ff771651de127d8⋯.jpg (31.06 KB, 350x263, 350:263, cyberchase.jpg)

3PM gang saved us today lads


 No.2845695

>>2845678

see

>>2845688

yield curve inverting (i.e. short term interest rates > long term) means 99% chance of a global economic crisis in the next 18 months.

The yield curve is nearly at the point of reversing just after the fed announcement.

Take that as you will.


 No.2845888

>>2845683

>>2845678

>>2845688

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/19/what-fedex-just-said-about-europe-and-china/

>When FedEx, a corporate barometer for the global goods-based economy, reported earnings this evening, it missed lowered earnings and revenue expectations, and it cut its guidance for the rest of the year, below already lowered expectations, and its shares tanked 5.7% in afterhours trading.

>International export, package: -3.4% ($2.54 billion)

>International domestic (intra-country) package: -5.4% ($1.08 billion)

>International priority freight: -10.3% ($477 million)

>International economy freight: +0.6% (495 million)

>International airfreight: -18.3% ($76 million)


 No.2845902

File: 8bb367b38a90c16⋯.webm (1.83 MB, 400x224, 25:14, 1548814905731.webm)


 No.2845990

>>2845695

https://ycharts.com/indicators/210_year_treasury_yield_spread

It's only at .14% for the 2-10 year one though (which is supposedly the one that matters). Things looked better in December, when we're are at .11%. Well have to see how it goes in the next 2 days.


 No.2846757

>>2845990

A 6 months/10 years inversion is as bad as a 2y/10y and it's currently at .5 (lowest gap intraday is .2).

It's just that the 2y/10y is the threshold where an inversion begins to be reliably indicative of a coming recession (in the next 18 months), any interest rate of a shorter term inverting with the 10y is significant too. However nobody cares about a 7y/10y inversion.


 No.2846797

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/opinion/wall-street-risk-debt.html

Interesting Op-ed. It mainly talks about CLOs.


 No.2847180

File: 8d883117498b3bc⋯.png (80.2 KB, 654x704, 327:352, Screenshot_20190322_125558.png)

The yield curve is officially inversed, the 6 months/10 years inverted just now.

THIS IS NOT A DRILL, A GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS IS DUE IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS AT MOST!


 No.2847182

>>2847180

Didn't this happen already?


 No.2847184

>>2847182

Not with the 10 years which is the significant one in regards to predicting a world wide recession.


 No.2847187

>>2847180

has this ever happened without an economic crisis in the next 18 months?


 No.2847192

>>2847180

The yield curve has been buttfucked in the middle range for over three months now. People are focusing for some reason only on the 10 year yields/the entire curve overall, but the middle range inversions are just as good a predictor.


 No.2847193

File: 7643c82df2d1c88⋯.jpg (126.18 KB, 593x399, 593:399, ES1830Fig_20181128091228.jpg)

>>2847187

In the history, I think it only happened once without a recession, in the sixties I believe.

In recent history an inverted yield curve means systematically a recession.


 No.2847195

>>2847187

>>2847193

Oh, one last thing, It's really an inversion of the curve that matters and is predictive of a recession, which is what we are seeing now.

However the yield curve can flatten without anything happening, we have seen that several times in history.


 No.2847206

>>2847180

Wow, the yield curve is getting blown the fuck out live, it's like watching an ISIS video.

https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds?maturity_from=40&maturity_to=290


 No.2847218

>>2847180

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-wont-kill-the-economic-expansion-top-forecaster-says-2019-03-21?mod=mw_latestnews

>Ignore the yield curve because the economy’s fundamentals are fine, top forecaster says

Kek, porkies are already in full damage control mode.


 No.2847228

>>2847180

September 2020, probably. Just in time for the US election.

Too bad. I was hoping it would crash September 2019 and ensure Sanders would get the nomination and Trump would get impeached, but looks like we're just going to have president Joe Biden presiding over the next recession. Awesome.


 No.2847230

>>2847228

No, I'm betting Q1 2020, when most companies will run out of buybacks fuel and the markets worldwide will then crash.


 No.2847231

>>2847180

>>2847228

>>2847230

I made a poll :

https://www.strawpoll.me/17657059

When will the big one come, comrades?


 No.2847233

File: 03cef06661b7c09⋯.jpg (87.29 KB, 633x356, 633:356, pewds.jpg)

File: a612fc17b6f1040⋯.png (170.64 KB, 1865x939, 1865:939, 4chanbiz.png)

COLLAPSE WILL COME SOONER THAN YOU THINK JUST LIKE IN MUH VIDYA GAEMS

RED ALERT

SUBSCRIBE TO PEWDIEPIE

RED ALERT

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RED ALERT

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RED ALERT

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RED ALERT

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RED ALERT

SUBSCRIBE TO PEWDIEPIE

SELL MEMECOINS, PULL MONEY OUT OF THE BANK, BUY BEANS AND RICE, BUT BOTTLED WATER, BUY SILVER

DO NOT HODL

BUY A LOCKBOX FOR YOUR SILVER

BANK RUN IN FRANCE SOON

RECESSION BY END OF YEAR

DO NOT WAIT

ACCELERATIONISM WON

SUBSCRIBE TO PEWDIEPIE


 No.2847237

File: fabf64851e7a609⋯.webm (14.65 MB, 512x288, 16:9, fabf64851e7a609c2df7c5d4d….webm)


 No.2847242

>>2847218

>i didnt fuck my cat. i didnt cum on my cat. i didnt put my dick anywhere near my cat. Ive never done anything weird with my cats. I promised myself i wasnt going to make apology videos after last years thing so im just trying to be as short and honest with this as possible.


 No.2847243

File: 1f5846e1f19ca12⋯.png (165.91 KB, 1029x464, 1029:464, Screenshot_20190322_155823.png)

What did the global equity market mean by this?


 No.2847245

>>2847237

>someone posts the webm you made

bueno.jpg


 No.2847246

File: b2c8cc4ddb67afe⋯.webm (12.13 MB, 640x480, 4:3, Phanatic - Master Mind.webm)

>>2847237

ACCELERATIONIST'S THEME RIGHT NOW


 No.2847248

inb4 that anon was right, and Dow Jones dipping below December levels by the end of March


 No.2847249

>>2847248

Which anon? Do you have the screencap?


 No.2847250

>>2847249

I don't save screencaps from LARPers claiming their dad works at Nintendo.


 No.2847251

>>2847228

If the economy collapses before the election, one of two things will happen: Backstabbin' Bernie will either be carried physically into the Whitehouse by the people, or you're going to see police repression on a scale never before seen in the United States or the world as the oligarchy dispenses with democratic pretences and simply installs their man.


 No.2847269

File: eed07f6071971ac⋯.png (211.13 KB, 940x641, 940:641, alarmist.png)

Kek who's spreading alarmism on /b/?

>>>/b/8750903


 No.2847270

File: ddbb60354f14901⋯.png (72.54 KB, 642x792, 107:132, Screenshot_20190322_164219.png)

I've got flashbacks from last Christmas.

Those were fun times in the stock markets.

>>2847269

Nice, someone is using my screenshots.


 No.2847272

>>2847269

Please whoever is doing that, don't copy paste mindlessly my shitty English mistakes.

"the yield curve is inversed" should be "The yield curve HAS inverTed" I made that mistake because I'm French and in french we say "la courbe des taux est inversée".

But if you're French too I'll say, Bon boulot camarade.


 No.2847293

File: 9597e492c6c4b3c⋯.jpg (36.95 KB, 540x518, 270:259, tothemoon.jpg)

File: 53b036873186054⋯.jpg (319.71 KB, 1008x1132, 252:283, pinkwojakbleach.jpg)

>>2847269

>Accelerationists are shaking confidence in USA stocks and meming bank runs

Is this praxis?


 No.2847298

File: 4a60b832e509fb7⋯.png (131.15 KB, 1948x574, 974:287, Screen Shot 2019-03-22 at ….png)

WE BURNING MOTHERFUCKERS


 No.2847301

File: 2a48707ffb2d385⋯.jpg (19.79 KB, 342x342, 1:1, Trumponomics: Inside the A….jpg)

Trump is really a gift that keeps on giving:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-hell-announce-moores-nomination-for-feds-board-2019-03-22

>President Donald Trump said Friday he'll announce Stephen Moore's nomination to the Federal Reserve's board of governors.

For your information, Mr. Moore is the author of this book.


 No.2847304

>>2847301

Half the reason /pol/ tardz make pro Trump YouTube videos for him is they think he'll ride into their town shirtless on horseback and thank them with money, recognition and a position in the administration. I don't know where they get that idea when Trump appoints shit tier ass kissers to run the fed, and bureaucracies.


 No.2847353

Nothing to see here, proles. The yield curve inverting does not necessarily mean a recession is coming, and even if one is, we have plenty of time before it comes. Remember to buy the dip!


 No.2847354

WHEN IS IT FUCKING COMING I THOUGHT MARXIST METHODOLOGY PREDICTED COLLAPSES IN CAPITALISM WELL FUCKERS WHERE'S THE FUCKING COLLAPSE


 No.2847356

>>2847354

It's coming anywhere between 2-9 months from now.


 No.2847359

File: f6ce9898a5fa670⋯.jpg (310.09 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190322-154926….jpg)

THANK YOU BASED 3PM GANG


 No.2847360

>>2847359

SO THIS IS THE POWER OF POWER HOUR..


 No.2847371

File: 3dd2de3735234d8⋯.png (38.71 KB, 600x428, 150:107, BROKE RESISTANCE AT CLOSE.png)

WE FUCKING BROKE RESISTANCE AND CLOSED AT LOW


 No.2847424

>>2847371

wat does that mean?


 No.2847431

>>2847424

That's S&P500


 No.2847434

File: 025d0daa78eef3b⋯.jpg (334.23 KB, 1078x1824, 539:912, Screenshot_20190322-144323….jpg)

hnnnnngggg


 No.2847438

>>2847231

Don't forget to vote for this poll!

We'll see if /leftypol/ can predict a recession.


 No.2847442

>>2847438

Q4 at the LATEST.


 No.2847459

File: 11d5a33bf8d6c9a⋯.png (22.41 KB, 438x221, 438:221, fan-5.png)

New Micheal Roberts :

>The Long Depression has become a fantasy world of rising financial asset prices, low investment and productivity growth, where nearly everybody can get a job (working part-time, temporary or self-employed), but not a living.


 No.2847460


 No.2847465

>>2847354

We are in it you tool


 No.2847466

>>2847459

beat me to it


 No.2847487

File: 5e89fcd101eb692⋯.png (96.09 KB, 1164x435, 388:145, Screenshot_20190323_001252.png)

Here's a graph from the FED that shows the strong correlation between an inversion of the yield curve (which happened today) and a recession.


 No.2847490

File: a1bb1654ad14b2f⋯.png (81.92 KB, 1162x432, 581:216, Screenshot_20190323_001252.png)


 No.2847514

File: d555ad6ba88e9bf⋯.png (31 KB, 501x491, 501:491, US-wholesale-inventory-sal….png)

Another indicator flashing red :

>The goods-based segment of the economy is heading for rough waters, and it is further diverging from the path of the services-based segment of the economy that is still growing at a solid rate: that’s what the current inventory pileup tells us.

>When inventories pile up, sales by those companies that supply that inventory do well. But companies that sit on that inventory and have trouble selling it will at some point cut their orders to reduce their inventories. When this happens, sales drop all the way up the supply chain.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/22/worsening-inventory-pileup-rattles-goods-based-economy/


 No.2847534

File: c49951055e95d22⋯.mp4 (1.66 MB, 640x360, 16:9, tick-tock.mp4)

Tick-tock, tick-tock, Porky is afraid of the clock.


 No.2847558

Actually I think it's coming way sooner than we expect. Probably within 4 months.


 No.2847561

>>2847371

>>2847298

>>2847269

>>2847246

>>2847233

>>2847193

>>2847180

>>2813496

>Satanon memed the collapse of the USA stock market through a blood sacrifice while he was obviously in a bad mental state

Comrade Schizophrenia defeated US debt imperialism. It's similar to how Comrade brain cancer defeated US imperialist Mccain about half a year ago.


 No.2847571

>>2847561

>Deterministic social structures lead us to inevitable collapse of capitalism under its own internal contradictions

>based satanist anon fucks up his ritual and it still worked

wow really impressive


 No.2847573

File: c94655485e3a340⋯.jpg (9.3 KB, 222x227, 222:227, feelsgoodman.jpg)

>Economic collapse soon

>Won't have to commit suicide, will die in the resulting SHTF scenario instead

>Will get to die when you're still young and go to Heaven

>The suffering is almost over


 No.2847586

File: 8dbecfe55dd5d73⋯.png (440.48 KB, 320x528, 20:33, little girl fucking dies.png)

>not voting for Trump so he's in power during the recession

haahahahahahahha u niggas rnt really this undialectical rU?


 No.2847588

>>2847586

>not voting in sanders so we can have a bolivarian revolution when he uses the crisis to nationalize major industries

if you aren't radicalizing bernouts into colectivos you don't really want socialism, you just want to larp


 No.2847593


 No.2847595

>mfw no deal Brexit is basically locked in

>incoming economic collapse of UK spreads contagion world wide


 No.2847596

>>2847593

Shit hits the fan


 No.2847699

>>2847586

>tfw Macron is going to have to deal with this shit while there are the gilets jaunes protesting

Peak dialectics


 No.2847845

>Muelller report comes out

>Inverted yield curves

> Fed bullied to turn income into gelatine

< -460

> this thread is silent.

WHY

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-could-fall-40-as-yield-curve-inverts-says-analyst-of-one-of-2018s-best-hedge-fund-returns-2019-03-22?mod=mw_theo_homepage&mod=mw_theo_homepage


 No.2847850

File: 85c7730c93b030d⋯.png (79.86 KB, 780x358, 390:179, bubble.png)

>>2847845

Because we already knew it's been happening.


 No.2847870

File: d72f633ae6ff48d⋯.jpeg (7.66 KB, 216x233, 216:233, v good.jpeg)

very good


 No.2848002

https://jackrasmus.com/2019/03/22/the-capitulation-of-jerome-powell-the-feds-now-empty-gun/

>The current peaking of the Fed’s rate at 2.375% compares to a Fed peak interest rate of 5.25% in 2007 just before the onset of the last recession; a 6.5% peak on the eve of the preceding recession in 2000; and the 8% peak rate just before the 1991 recession. In other words, Fed rate policy effectiveness has been deteriorating over the longer run for some time, and not just recently.


 No.2848014

>>2848002

As this article points out, The FED doesn't have any bullets in its gun, they'll have to follow the example of the Bank of Japan and lower the interest rates into negative territory and begin to buy directly stocks (those things of course don't work at all). The US government will have to bail out banks and "too big to fail" companies left and right and then cut (as in destroy) social and public services on an unprecedented scale to compensate to exponential growth of its debt. Fun times ahead.

Moreover, seeing the battery of news article saying this yield curve inversion is not a big deal because the US economy is strong (whatever that means), Porky must be shitting his pants.

All is pointing toward the next one being the Big One and at this point only WWIII and good old capital (and incidentally human) destruction on a industrial scale could "prevent" it.


 No.2848026

>>2847573

I'm not suicidal, but tbh the post-nuke war world sounds so miserable that when the nukes start flying, I'd probably go drive and stand under a probable blast radius. A quick and exotic death.


 No.2848027

>>2847845

>>Inverted yield curves

we've been calling this for months now.


 No.2848059

>>2848026

You should have some 12-gauge shells or at least some hollow-point 9mm prepared beforehand. Dying from radiation sickness is a real bitch, not a good way to go out.


 No.2848060

>>2848014

That's exactly why we need Bernie. We all know 2020/21 there's going to be a financial crash, but hopefully with Bernie there will be systemic change when that happens.


 No.2848067

File: 921fd4a56d6e543⋯.png (71.85 KB, 728x367, 728:367, N53iW1xg.png)

You guys should watch the year over year change in the chemical activity barometer, because chemical activity is one of the first things to decrease in the real economy preceding a downturn. And it's in a nosedive (pic).

current data: https://www.americanchemistry.com/Jobs/CAB/

YoY change in household wealth is also a good indicator: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=4F3T.


 No.2848077

File: 1516f6b853ea77f⋯.png (322.85 KB, 1920x1200, 8:5, 10Y_yield_curve_1999-2019.png)

German 10-year gone negative


 No.2848078

>>2848059

You get vaporized if you're close enough.


 No.2848090

>>2847588

Honestly Sanders might push for something like this, especially if there's grassroots support for it.


 No.2848634

What are your predictions for next week


 No.2848639

Down down baby down down. Just gotta stock up on some shooting weapons here in yuropoor so that public tribunals will be able to swiftly punish porky


 No.2848640

https://youtu.be/6Stu7h7Qup8

THE GLASS GANG HAS ARRIVED


 No.2848642


 No.2848649

File: 18a03ef9a00383b⋯.jpg (32.06 KB, 600x695, 120:139, Fidel_Castro.jpg)

>>2847699

If this shit is really coming, it better come soon.

>Macron fighting the GJ while the system he's a mercenary for goes bust

>Trump in the white house just before the election as Bernie is gaining ground

It will be glorious. You burgerfucks better be radicalizing Democrat Cops of America members and Bernie supporters. Frog anons are doing their part.


 No.2848650

>>2847356

Not that I know any better but what do you base this on?


 No.2848672

File: b02901514d2178a⋯.png (58.58 KB, 1170x438, 195:73, Screenshot_20190323_135841.png)

>>2848650

The inversion of the US yield curve, when it inverts a global economic crisis follows historically (see the graph) between 7-18 months after it.

It inverted last Friday.


 No.2848675

>>2848672

Ok, but 7-18 months is a bit different than 2-9 months. The speed was what I was wondering about.


 No.2848712

>>2848672

>It inverted last Friday.

Significant parts of it have been inverted for over three months, so you can actually shorten the prediction a bit.


 No.2849104

Guys I think it's happening for real


 No.2849129

File: 515272ed28e2717⋯.png (58.62 KB, 655x620, 131:124, Screenshot_20190325_013135.png)

>>2849104

This is another Hiroshima!


 No.2849130

guys this time it is for real i swear no joke


 No.2849136

File: 068cc7f3b280f0a⋯.jpg (1.72 MB, 1449x1925, 207:275, b1wk_small.jpg)

>>2848640

Still here. A year later our prelude seems to be coming to a close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWB4O0XdJxQ

>The sun of him who knew thee not

>Has set, O Lenin.

>But, as for him who knows thee,

>He shines.

>The temple of him who assailed

>Thee is in darkness,

>While the whole earth is in

>Sunlight.

>Who so puts thee in his heart,

>O Kropotkin,

>Lo, his sun hath risen.


 No.2849138

>>2849130

Since 2012 I have been reading on the inevitable collapse of the world economy and the everything bubble. I have read countless articles, skimmed through truckloads of economic data.

But, in all actuality, I don't think I'm ready for this and the impact it'll have on my life. I was barely 18 when the last economic crash happened…


 No.2849140

What should a humble burger do to prepare for recession? I've got 6k in the bank, should I just sit on it for survival?


 No.2849141

>>2849140

try and withdraw it when everyone else does and pour your fuel on the glorious flames


 No.2849143

File: b92fec0cc04f16e⋯.jpg (1.65 MB, 4160x3120, 4:3, IMG_20190316_122246.jpg)

>>2849140

When shit hits the fan, go on the streets and destroy civilization.


 No.2849147

>>2849140

Get it out of the bank ASAP.


 No.2849151

>>2849140

Buy a gun, and learn how to shoot.


 No.2849162

>>2849140

Do you even know your neighbor's names? Cuz who do you think you're going to need to ask for help when your heat breaks next winter and you can't afford to fix it?


 No.2849229

File: d9d9258b2bcfac2⋯.jpg (301.11 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190325-004016….jpg)

-700


 No.2849247

>>2849229

hh… holy fuck


 No.2849250

well i guess this is gonna be an all nighter


 No.2849281

File: e28a52f60d08263⋯.png (494.91 KB, 750x563, 750:563, 1550788223803.png)

so these huge drops in price, actual crash or not. How much are they comprised of 'ordinary middle class' investors, or are these basically all the investment funds selling now to buy back in lower, while ordinary investors just suck up the losses?

Or maybe, how much of the stock market do ordinary middle class investors, in their pensions etc, even have?


 No.2849282

File: 53d6f338ba87bca⋯.jpg (72.6 KB, 640x473, 640:473, 1552709818313.jpg)

>>2849281

Also, 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧The Guardian🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧 economic update for today:

Anxiety over the health of the global economy is gripping markets today, sending shares sliding in Asia.

Fears of a global recession are building after a flurry of weak economic data in recent weeks. With the eurozone economy stumbling, growth slowing in the US and China feeling the impact of the trade war, investors are become more worried about prospects for 2019 and beyond.

Japan’s Nikkei has plunged by 3% as a wave of selling pushed it down 650 points to 20,977.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has lost 2.1% in late trading and China’s CSI 300 has shed 2.3%.

This follows a sharp sell-off on Friday in Europe and Asia, which wiped 2% off Britain’s FTSE 100 and 1.7% off the Dow Jones industrial average.

That was triggered by the biggest fall in eurozone factory output since the euro debt crisis was raging, with Germany suffering a particularly sharp decline.

Traders are looking nervously at the bond market, where the US yield curve has just inverted. That’s because three-month US government bonds are now changing hands at the same yield, or interest rate, as 10-year debt.

That suggests investors are worried about US economic prospects – especially as an inverted yield curve often (but not always) heralds a recession.

European stock markets are expected to fall further today. A new survey of German business confidence, due at 9am GMT, may give investors more to worry about.

Brexit anxiety will also weigh on the City today as the prime minister Theresa May’s future looks more perilous after a crisis meeting with senior party figures yesterday.


 No.2849283

File: d0e269a303ad99e⋯.jpg (53.93 KB, 793x786, 793:786, 1517888991581.jpg)

>>2849281

i sold off my stocks and put it all in bonds like a year ago when shit was fluctuating and it looks like im holding the bag now


 No.2849296

>>2849247

>hh… holy fuck

>not: HORY SHET


 No.2849349

File: d987c1f2645637c⋯.png (58.12 KB, 696x276, 58:23, 1.png)

File: 8a5330ad45501bc⋯.png (53.77 KB, 706x288, 353:144, 2.png)

File: 2173eb43a59626f⋯.png (56.93 KB, 692x291, 692:291, 3.png)

Asia, Eu, Futures.


 No.2849350

get ready boys its almost time to watch the fireworks


 No.2849351

>>2849350

2 minutes before NYSE opens


 No.2849353

>>2849351

Dow is barely hovering in the positive right now


 No.2849354

File: b17bc53e9f7efc5⋯.jpg (50.07 KB, 646x535, 646:535, huehue.jpg)

huehue


 No.2849356

Can anyone give me the run down of what all this recent volatility is from?


 No.2849359

File: ffd3967a163db15⋯.jpg (54.66 KB, 644x531, 644:531, dow.jpg)

File: ff497d314c34229⋯.jpg (923.53 KB, 540x720, 3:4, JazzGoes.jpg)


 No.2849366

File: ec16bfc26924dbc⋯.jpg (290.55 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190325-102018….jpg)

File: 91701847e46beaa⋯.jpg (35.3 KB, 429x571, 429:571, Jazz music starts.jpg)

Nice


 No.2849368

File: a905e0cb2439bcb⋯.png (87.72 KB, 500x303, 500:303, hudson-were-on-an-express-….png)

>>2849356

Yield curve inverted along with all time high economic uncertainty prep your body kiddo we're on a train ride to hell and the breaks fell off a long time ago


 No.2849379

>>2849162

LOL just buy a shit-ton of blankets from wal-mart for cheap and ghetto-insulate your room with them


 No.2849386

File: 1d4e958d1f6c841⋯.jpg (84.81 KB, 480x270, 16:9, Fi-M-Top10-Comedy-Films-of….jpg)

Turns out putting all my chips on the art and entertainment business wasn't such an irresponsible gamble after all. My line of work boomed during the great depression. Obviously this'll be worse but fucking hell, I can't wait to see all the lawyers and salesmen who sneared at me struggle to keep the lights on like I did, and know that what ever prospects are left to strive for, mine are better than theirs.


 No.2849533

>>2849386

I'm not sure if people will have the money to go to the movies and the theater during a recession, anon.


 No.2849585

File: 1e9ab994eb97f6e⋯.jpg (78.98 KB, 687x1024, 687:1024, You May Be The Next.jpg)

>>2849386

You should have put your money in mortuary/funeral services. There's going to be a ton of death soon, you'd make a killing.


 No.2849598

>>2849386

What’s your job / field?


 No.2849600

>>2848649

>>Trump in the white house just before the election as Bernie is gaining ground

i think the US boojie fucks will work their magic so the crash happens exactly after the democratic primaries have ended so summer 2020


 No.2849606

honest question i have like 23k euro, 10k which are in some safe somewhere and 13k which are in a bank account. what the hell do i do? i'm a student living with his parents so i have basically no expenses. i was figuring to save for a one-year master degree abroad or something like that. i live in europe.


 No.2849650

File: 01797861d5c218d⋯.png (50.43 KB, 658x552, 329:276, ClipboardImage.png)

PPT WINS AGAIN


 No.2849653

>>2849606

Withdraw from the bank. They won't let you take everything in one withdrawal without a special permission so either get a fake price estimate for a construction job, say you wanna buy a car or something.


 No.2849842

>>2849533

They usually do. Strung up people crave escapism. Though this is assuming we're still close to the Great Depression tier happenings.


 No.2849852

Regarding bank bailouts, financial crisis and systemic risk : https://youtu.be/l3K33cFTc5U?t=272


 No.2849866

Things all economists, including lefties, agree on:

*The government can borrow money at a cheaper interest rate than anyone else

*Over the long run, equity investments return more than interest

So why doesn't the government just give itself a margin loan and invest in the stock market? With that income, the government could reduce taxes. This is more a question to social democrats and right-leaning economists.

The fact that the government does not do this is a political act in itself, in support of capitalism.


 No.2849931

>>2849866

government isn't supposed to own stocks


 No.2849950

>>2849931

That's an ideological statement. Fact is, there's no reason the government CANT own stocks. It's just "not supposed to" because it's against some made up rules needed to support capitalism.


 No.2849976

>>2849866

But corporate taxes give the government a fixed % return of corporate profit, before any dividends are paid out to shareholders anyway, and dividends have to be allocated by directors out of available profits, and they don't have to distribute all profits at once each quarter etc. Taxes are far better than shares for revenue. might as well just raise tax rates if they were going to do that.

What I guess they could do maybe is act as liquidity-providing market-makers for hedge funds to borrow assets from in order to enter their leveraged positions. At present I think the stock exchanges do this themselves and charge fees. If the government had control of the stock exchange infrastructure it could collect 'speculation rent', as it were, from these investment firms.


 No.2849984

File: 3ecce6577d7b27a⋯.png (336 KB, 478x654, 239:327, ClipboardImage.png)

GUYS FUCKING CHILL!!

Goldman Sachs said it's going to be alright.


 No.2850047


 No.2850261

>>2849950

Imagine Trump buying stock in his own company.

That's the problem, either the government has to own the entire company, or it has to own none.

Or it requires a portion of every new stock issue by a private company to go to the government to avoid conflict of interest.


 No.2850313

>>2849976

Corporate taxes don't grow in proportion to capitalist accumulation. With stocks, you have dividends which are taxed, but also capital gains which are not taxed. Over the long run, porky's share of the economy grows more than the government's.

If the government borrows to invest in the stock market, it doesn't cost anyone anything. Interest can be paid down with dividends and capital gain. It's well established that this exceeds interest in the long run. Whereas raising taxes makes porky pay more and porky will squeal.

>>2850261

>That's the problem, either the government has to own the entire company, or it has to own none.

It depends on the company. If Trump got the government to buy his stock, it may be that his company is shit and he wants to government to prop up prices. However, if we consider companies that own key infrastructure, a stock purchase by the government is buying a valuable asset. There's no reason for the government can't have a partial ownership (although socialists will want full ownership.)


 No.2850321

>>2850313

>>2850313

>also capital gains which are not taxed.

I meant not taxed immediately, so not in proportion to growth.


 No.2851317

Do you guys have any good books, websites or videos that explain the basics of these concepts, so an idiot like me can follow along and witness how capitalism obliterates itself alive.


 No.2851326

>>2851317

You can read the Marxian economist Micheal Roberts books and his blog :

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/


 No.2851405

>>2851326

Thanks comrade!


 No.2851686

File: 68fd22eed9552a6⋯.png (63.88 KB, 1149x227, 1149:227, 1.png)

>>2833048

750 mil buyback comin thru.


 No.2851688

>>2851686

Oh boy


 No.2851756

File: e1965e293eae0e2⋯.jpg (1.27 MB, 1205x1800, 241:360, e19.jpg)

Mounting warnings of a global recession

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/03/29/econ-m29.html


 No.2852027

Ok comrades most of us are gonna get fucked pretty hard by this shit and I don't know how the fuck can we prepare for it

What the hell do we do; should we stock up on food or other shit?

I'm in a pretty delicate financial situation; my family is too, but in an other country(mostly grandpas and so on my parents are in the same country as me)

I mean I hope it doesn't hit as hard as most articles put it(worse than the great depression) but in any case it's gonna mess with us pretty hard

What are some tips for poor people on how to make it through this


 No.2852237

>>2852027

Stock up on

Rice

Beans

Blankets

Pillows

Clothes

Hygine products

Portable chargers for electronics if you can manage that

Get a good bag to carry shit in

Knife to protect your shit (if someone theatens you just take it out you most likely wont end up using it)

Make sure you have a way to cook your food

Prolly a bunch of other stuff but this should keep you alive at least


 No.2852346

>>2850313

>There's no reason for the government can't have a partial ownership (although socialists will want full ownership.)

Unless the government has full ownership liberals going to complain until the end of time about favouritism.


 No.2852350

>>2852237

>>2852027

Withdraw whatever you have from the bank right now. Also, why don't we try to do something like >>2844119 ?


 No.2852431


 No.2852620

File: 2e48be61262cb94⋯.png (428.79 KB, 640x580, 32:29, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2852350

because this is how the banking system works


 No.2852624

>>2852620

imagine not knowing the difference between a bank and a central bank


 No.2852627

>>2852624

the central bank gives loans to banks to keep them operating


 No.2852651

>>2852620

Read about fractional reserve banking you pleb


 No.2852667

>>2852027

O R G A N I Z E


 No.2852696

>>2852651

Where does the fraction come from? That's right, the central bank!


 No.2852705

File: 4c52da852b599bc⋯.jpg (37.01 KB, 690x505, 138:101, stupid commies.jpg)


 No.2852861

File: 519f7584688894e⋯.png (40.21 KB, 397x539, 397:539, ClipboardImage.png)


 No.2852879

>>2852651

>>2852696

>>2852861

Fractional reserve banking is a myth. The fact of the matter is that banks lend money when there is demand for it. Many countries don't have reserve requirements (eg. Australia) and so there can't be a multiplier.

http://econintersect.com/pages/opinion/opinion.php?post=201901200002

http://heteconomist.com/banks-are-capital-constrained-not-reserve-constrained/


 No.2852942

>>2852879

>bank runs & systemic risk dont real in spite of empirical evidence they actually do


 No.2852969

>>2852942

The bank branch will just say they are out of paper cash money and tell you to go somewhere else.


 No.2852997

>>2852969

https://youtu.be/BpaqC6hKsQo?t=270

Watch this, you don't know what systemic risk is


 No.2852998

>>2852969

This is like saying "if it rains and the tree you found shelter under is wet, just find another tree dude"


 No.2853568

>>2850313

Well how about, then, rather than the government borrowing money, requiring companies to pay their tax in shares up until the government has whatever threshold % ownership it determines, then switching back to taxing profits.

You could even make it palatable by saying: if you pay tax in stock this year, you pay 50% what you owe (and continue this scheme until the gov hits e.g. 15% total ownership), and whatever tax you would pay in subsequent years you get a % discount based on how many shares the gov owns, or on how much the company distributed in dividends in the quarter before taxes are due, something like that.


 No.2853673

>>2853568

This is actually a rather good idea, something we could get SucDems on board with too.


 No.2853964

File: 4eb43486bba189b⋯.jpg (38.13 KB, 595x335, 119:67, d07c7aa41d51867c604eb89532….jpg)

>>2853673

UK Labour had a watered down version of it in their 2017 manifesto iirc. Their version was something like:

companies have 5 years to allocate 10% total shares to the whole class of employees, in a special company administered vehicle. employees receive up to £500 in dividends per year from the shares, if there are any surplus dividends the workers are entitled to, that surplus goes to the state.

the arbitrary limit of £500 made no sense to me what with the fact that companies could have such different number of employees and so on, but the idea in general was a good start. Also it runs aground of the fact that it widens the gap between employees, workers, and independent contractors, but it seemed a good start. And hard for opponents to get rid of later on.


 No.2854455

File: 6eb8d6c1fb5fc4d⋯.jpg (29.45 KB, 400x388, 100:97, sad.jpg)

So does the inverted yield curve actually guarantee a collapse within 18 months? I'm so tired of life, I just want it all to be over.


 No.2854557

File: eb5b00ac8dc7a4b⋯.png (43.66 KB, 654x554, 327:277, ClipboardImage.png)

JUST FUCK MY CRASH UP


 No.2854579

>>2854557

Do you know the stock market typically never does as good as it does right before a market crash? Everyone knows it's incredibly overvalued.


 No.2854584

>>2854455

Maybe sooner if we get Corbyn as a PM. Same with the chances of Bernie getting elected. Markets would freak the fuck out with either of them. :)


 No.2854760

>>2854455

What are you doing to sabotage currently existing society


 No.2854933

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/aug/29/coding-algorithms-frankenalgos-program-danger

A year old article, but has relevant and interesting information, like that hft is being used to rob workers.

>Where once there had been a physical trading floor, all action had devolved to a central server, in which nimble, predatory algorithms fed off lumbering institutional ones, tempting them to sell lower and buy higher by fooling them as to the state of the market. Human HFT traders (although no human actively traded any more) called these large, slow participants “whales”, and they mostly belonged to mutual and pension funds – ie the public. For most HFT shops, whales were now the main profit source.

Or even better, these masters of the universe are letting these machines run unsupervised and develop their own trading rules

>The scenario was complicated, according to the science historian George Dyson, by the fact that some HFT firms were allowing the algos to learn – “just letting the black box try different things, with small amounts of money, and if it works, reinforce those rules. We know that’s been done. Then you actually have rules where nobody knows what the rules are: the algorithms create their own rules – you let them evolve the same way nature evolves organisms.”


 No.2855076

>>2854933

wow, that is fucking terrible.


 No.2855077


 No.2855087

>>2854933

I prefer Skynet launching nukes.


 No.2855112

>>2854933

It's going to rule so hard when the algos flip their shit in the next recession and zero-out the entire stock market.


 No.2855179

>>2854584

People thought markets would freak out if Trump got elected but Porky benefited from his policies. If it turns out that the Consumer benefits from Bernie's policies that benefits Porky and the discretionary goods purveyors.


 No.2855226

>>2855179

>People thought markets would freak out if Trump got elected

Trump is the least subtle enabler of finance there is.


 No.2855402

File: 31207cf8029e23e⋯.jpg (14.08 KB, 256x255, 256:255, Carmageddon_box.jpg)

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/02/q1-carmageddon-for-gm-fiat-chrysler-toyota-nissan-mercedes-mazda/

>Ford wisely kept its mouth shut. The problem with Mercedes and BMW is that they don’t yet sell luxury pickups, though they’re finally figuring it out.

>The first quarter was not pretty for new-vehicle sales in the US. Deliveries fell 3.2% from Q1 last year, to 3.99 million vehicles. Unless a miracle happens – and miracles are rare in the auto industry – 2019 is going to be the third down-year in a row for the industry, and the fourth down year for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, and some others, whose peak sales volume occurred in 2015.


 No.2855447

File: e28a52f60d08263⋯.png (494.91 KB, 750x563, 750:563, 1550788223803.png)

>>2855402

conversely doesn't this also mean a reduction in new cars purchased on credit agreements.


 No.2855469

>>2855447

I'm actually wondering why this is. My first guess is around how pickups (particularly the Hilux in my coutnry) are not only tax credited as business expenses, but also financed to a commercial entity, not a 'private individual'. If we were to imagine the processes of proletarianisation, centralisation of capital etc. that were accelerated after we dropped keynesianism and supply side economics, would we see the purchase of vehicles facilitated more through capital entities as opposed to individual consumers?

sorry for the word salad, I've been awake a long ass time.


 No.2855627


 No.2855733

>>2854455

For Marxist economist Micheal Roberts a recession is imminent

>We are due for another recession now – I expected it much earlier even as early as 2016 and certainly by now. This recovery period since 2009 is the longest in the post-war period although during the late 19th century depression there were similar periods – 1875-83; 1886-97 etc. The current recovery has been lengthened by a huge injection of fictitious capital and continued growth in China/India. But these factors have waned and profitability has not recovered much. So is the recession imminent or shall I and others be proved wrong and capitalism will stagger with low growth for the foreseeable future? hmm.

See his comment on this blog post : https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2019/04/01/getting-longer-but-lower/#comments


 No.2855735

>>2855402

nobody's buying cars because Uber and Lyft exist.


 No.2855739

File: f108d1eab10aa3d⋯.png (515.03 KB, 1263x990, 421:330, question lucoa fish.png)

>>2855735

Ride sharing costs more than a car payment on a monthly basis though.


 No.2855804

File: a3f19dac1513ecb⋯.png (19.27 KB, 495x462, 15:14, US-class-8-truck-orders-yo….png)

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/03/next-phase-in-trucking-cycle-has-started/

>From “capacity panic” to “overcapacity” in less than a year?

>This is one of the most cyclical industries, with legendary boom-and-bust cycles: Orders for Class-8 trucks plunged 67% in March compared to March last year, to 15,200 orders, the lowest March for orders since 2010, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. These are the heavy trucks that haul consumer goods, equipment, commodities, and supplies across the US. This plunge comes after orders had already plunged 58% year-over-year in February and January and 43% in December.


 No.2855806

Shamelessly plugging this interview of the french heterodox marxist economist Frederic Lordon on globalisation, finance and neoliberalism : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CUC1wIcmfY

https://youtu.be/BpaqC6hKsQo?t=266

This one regarding bank bailouts & systemic risk (timestamped)


 No.2855809

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/04/mega-banks-tell-sec-derivatives-could-blow-up-wall-street-again/

>According to JPMorgan’s 10K, it has sold credit derivative protection on $177 billion of “subinvestment grade” i.e., junk credits. When you sell credit protection, you are on the hook to pay the buyer if that entity goes belly up. When you are selling credit protection on subinvestment grade entities, it is far more likely that they could go belly up. JPMorgan Chase will likely argue that they have also purchased boatloads of credit derivatives, which might be on the same entities, but there is no way for anyone to accurately predict if this mega bank has aligned these risks correctly. Even the bank admits that, writing in its 10K the following:

>“JPMorgan Chase could incur significant losses arising from concentrations of credit and market risk. JPMorgan Chase is exposed to greater credit and market risk to the extent that groupings of its clients or counterparties:

>“Engage in similar or related business, or in businesses in related industries;

>“do business in the same geographic region, or;

>“have business profiles, models or strategies that could cause their ability to meet their obligations to be similarly affected by changes in economic conditions.

>“For example, a significant deterioration in the credit quality of one of JPMorgan Chase’s borrowers or counterparties could lead to concerns about the creditworthiness of other borrowers or counterparties in similar, related or dependent industries. This type of interrelationship could exacerbate JPMorgan Chase’s credit, liquidity and market risk exposure and potentially cause it to incur losses, including fair value losses in its market-making businesses…

>“JPMorgan Chase regularly monitors various segments of its credit and market risk exposures to assess the potential risks of concentration or contagion, but its efforts to diversify or hedge its exposures against those risks may not be successful.”


 No.2855922

>>2855739

It's a near thing once you factor in fuel costs and parking.


 No.2855936

>>2855739

>>2855922

Not just fuel and parking, but also owning a car requires owning insurance, paying taxes, and either doing maintenance yourself or paying extra for someone else to do it. Cars are expensive as fuck when you do all the math.


 No.2855959

>>2855922

Does it though? Your average amerifat has 32 mile commute (16 miles each way) every work day. That's around $30 total 5 days a week under Uber's pricing model, at least according to the information I could find.


 No.2855960

File: 1501a2983ba4567⋯.gif (1.4 MB, 300x224, 75:56, 1554218243989.gif)

>>2855809

>JPMorgan Chase is exposed to greater credit and market risk to the extent that groupings of its clients or counterparties:

>“Engage in similar or related business, or in businesses in related industries;

>“do business in the same geographic region, or;

>“have business profiles, models or strategies that could cause their ability to meet their obligations to be similarly affected by changes in economic conditions.

so basically they've moved on from too big to fail to now we are so big we probably will fail?


 No.2855978

No recession for 2019 confirmed. Summer of profits confirmed.

>The Nasdaq Composite's COMP, -0.33% chart flashed a "golden cross" pattern on Wednesday, to join the other major market indexes in producing the bullish trend pattern. A golden cross appears when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, a technical event that many chart watchers believe marks the spot at shorter-term rally transitions to a longer-term uptrend. The Nasdaq's 50-DMA rose to 7,496.004 from 7,478.580 on Wednesday, while the 200-DMA edged up to 7,491.966 from 7,491.240. The last golden cross appeared on May 19, 2016, and the Nasdaq rose 50% until the opposite bearish "death cross" appeared on Nov. 27, 2018. The Nasdaq's cross comes two-days after the S&P 500 SPX, -0.01% produced its golden cross and two weeks after the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.41% produced its bullish cross. The NYSE Composite NYA, +0.09% and Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index DWCF, -0.06% have produced golden crosses this week, while the Russell 2000 RUT, +0.12% and the Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT, +0.29% are still weeks away.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaqs-golden-cross-joins-dow-sp-500-2019-04-03


 No.2855995

File: 675ed66f502fda3⋯.png (231.93 KB, 720x813, 240:271, 20190404_142625.png)

>President Trump is expected to name former GOP presidential candidate and pizza chain CEO Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board.

Trump is the gift that keeps on giving.


 No.2856000

>>2855735

new cars have also become ludicrously expensive as well


 No.2856010

>>2855995

Isn't that the guy that used the song from the second Pokemon movie in his stump speeches?


 No.2856012

>>2855995

lol isn't that guy literally a numerologist?

can't wait for the central bank to make their inflation targets based on the number of letters in various bible verses


 No.2856171

>>2856012

>>2856010

IDK about those, but he did develop his signature tax plan from the videogame simcity.


 No.2856204

>>2856171

Trump isn't just trying to crash the economy in New York City

And Trump isn't just trying to crash the economy in New York State

And Trump isn't just trying to crash the economy in the United States of America

But he's trying to crash the economy of the whole world

with no survivors


 No.2856273

>>2856171

>he did develop his signature tax plan from the videogame simcity.

finally, a gamer like me. gamers rise up!


 No.2856309

>>2855959

I can't speak for americans, but as an australian I would easily pay that much in fuel + plus additional costs.


 No.2856365

File: c24166eabac8d07⋯.gif (3.9 MB, 400x348, 100:87, 1546537854175.gif)


 No.2856374

>>2856012

>can't wait for the central bank to make their inflation targets based on the number of letters in various bible verses

Can't wait for the policy to make literally no difference and BTFO the economists as bourgeois economy is voodoo anyway.


 No.2856399

>>2855809

the economy is garbage and the only solution from Trump will be to print money to bail it out

>>2856010

yes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o95KxKKrgkQ


 No.2856401

are credit unions safe relative to banks?


 No.2856536

File: 6df7183fcfcf3de⋯.png (77.54 KB, 1029x452, 1029:452, graphe_Allemagne.png)

R.I.P. in pieces, German industrial sector, you'll be missed.

This was the most important decrease in industrial orders for the German economy since 2009.

Shit might get really real from now on.


 No.2856587

>>2856536

Is that showing comparison to the year before?

does it show lack of growth after that 17/18 boom, or straight decrease?


 No.2856588

>>2856536

Friendly reminder german retired pensions are involved in the market. In case of a market crash, that money is gone.


 No.2856605

>>2856399

What happens if banks fail again like in 2008 and the U.S. tries another bailout? Can it even be done again?


 No.2856610

File: 169de7577b20d7e⋯.png (68.3 KB, 640x373, 640:373, U-rate2018.png)

I did a quick skim of this thread and noticed no one is talking about unemployment rates, which I feel is much more telling of future recession.

>in my econ class we were talking about the U-rate (unemployment rate)

>Prof pointed out how when unemployment is the lowest this means businesses are growing too fast for them to handle

>this leads into a recession

>lowest its been for 18 years

>18 years ago when u-rate was its lowest there was quickly the 01 recession

>9 years ago it was getting close to the u-rate now, we all know what happened in 09

So at any moment now there is going to be another recession, soon.

Do you guys think this is going to happen before the election, or is it going to be the same shit last time where the bubble pops on a new President.

I really hope this shit pops on Trump, just to trigger the right. But I'm afraid the rich are gonna pull something on us and hold shit together as much as they can to foil the next Democratic leader.

I recommend everyone to prepare for when shit to goes down, both monetary and meme wise, could be a good time to attract those who get impacted the most into the left.


 No.2856611

File: 419b59dda83714c⋯.gif (90.9 KB, 299x225, 299:225, swe.gif)


 No.2856612

File: d70cb93434d7932⋯.png (40.6 KB, 649x560, 649:560, German_PMI.png)

>>2856587

It's a year to year comparison (that's what Y/Y% means), e.g. the results from 02/2019 were compared to 02/2018.

In absolute number it's a 1,4% decrease, but it's significant because coupled with the last German Industrial PMI* of 44.1 (was expected at 44.7) show that the German Industrial sector is tanking at a rate not seen since 2009.

>*The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.


 No.2856618

File: bb87557833a290d⋯.gif (1.95 MB, 244x194, 122:97, 1546156775406.gif)

>>2856610

>when unemployment is the lowest this means businesses are growing too fast for them to handle

>this leads into a recession


 No.2856649

>>2856611

>>2856618

>>2856610

Don't worry guys, it's a slowdown not a recession and actually that's a good thing FOR EVERYONE:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-jobs-report-nails-it-its-a-slowdown-not-a-recession-2019-04-05?mod=mw_theo_homepage

>This is the sweet part of the cycle and that’s good for everyone.

Propaganda like this makes me really think Porky is panicked and we are heading toward a catastrophic recession.


 No.2856652

>>2856610

>pointed out how when unemployment is the lowest this means businesses are growing too fast for them to handle

Why? And how does this lead to a recession


 No.2856654

Just what my Prof said, not that important I think and I could be remembering wrong


 No.2856656

>>2856649

>slowdown

>not a recession

The fact they think there's a difference between the two is proof enough that something is coming.


 No.2856658

>>2856652

There has to be a dormant labor supply in order to supplement labor to new industries, if there isn't then the economy will stagnate due to no new businesses taking off.


 No.2856659

>>2856649

>a good thing

I don't know its never been this low without shit hitting the fan.

>>2856652

>>2856618

Wait, I remember her saying that companies grow and since they can't find new employees they begin outsourcing or something. I don't know man it is econ 101, she was probably just simplifying a complicated issue. But my main point is that I think by going by our U-rate and looking at past shit we can see something is about to happen.


 No.2856662

>>2856610

>>2856611

>>2856618

>>2856649

>>2856652

Oh yeah, all grey lines are recessions. forgot to say that.


 No.2856667

>>2856659

It's probably because of bullshit like NAIRU, and booj deliberately trying to keep people unemployed, lest they get too much bargaining power and then inflation or some shit.


 No.2856675

>>2856652

Basically:

>High unemployment means high reserve army of labor putting pressure on wages, increasing profits

>Low unemployment means less competition among workers, meaning higher wages and lower profits. Causing a profit crisis.

However, it should be noted that the current employment cycle doesn't follow the typical patterns (the data is off). There was an explosion of lower-wage and part-time jobs that count you as "employed." Even so, the chart anon posted clearly shows that in terms of actual time, we should be towards the peak of employment/bottom of unemployment.


 No.2856689

>>2856675

>There was an explosion of lower-wage and part-time jobs that count you as "employed."

Indeed, as Micheal Roberts puts it:

>The Long Depression has become a fantasy world of rising financial asset prices, low investment and productivity growth, where nearly everybody can get a job (working part-time, temporary or self-employed), but not a living.

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2019/03/22/the-fantasy-world-of-the-long-depression/


 No.2856713

Trump is installing idiots on the fed to force them into cutting rates and quantative easing.

I think the idea is to inject the economy with enough meth to keep it high until November 2020. Then deal with any issues that may create after the election. Either blame his predecessor or the "radical leftists" in the House if he wins for a crash. As relatavistic reactionaries do.


 No.2857387

>>2856605

>Can it even be done again?

no they don't have any assets to sell to the government besides shitty corporate debt. in 2008 they had some disputed mortgages.


 No.2857392

>>2856675

implying the united states actually has enough people employed and doesn't have a reserve army of labour, and it isn't just porky shilling to keep his wage costs low.


 No.2857397

>>2856713

Yeah. Get guns because he's gonna point the finger on you guys.


 No.2857415

This thread is basically leftist ZeroHedge.


 No.2857416

>>2856689

Ha! That's an excellent article. So we are all turning Japanese! We have a stagnant zombie-economy and Trump's mistake was thinking that he could fire it up simply by throwing a shit-ton of incentives under the nose of big auto companies. Sorry kids, it's not the 50s anymore/stop fucking feeding the megacorps and expecting them to deliver an American renaissance like they have failed to do every year for the past 60.

Sounds like we're still in slow-death mode. Although this also explains some other externalities. For instance, low imports. Yeah that's one way to accelerate the Mexican border issue; just fire half of South America, and surprise, surprise, there's a huge dependent population on the southern border demanding welfare. I know the stat was for capital goods, but it's not like the average family can afford as many exotic fruits and cocaine as it did formerly.


 No.2857418

>>2857415

And what do you have against ZeroHedge? This is better than the bitcoin freaks who inhabit Cuckchan's /biz/.


 No.2857435

>>2857415

Thanks.


 No.2857655

>>2855936

Burger here. I drive almost exactly that distance to work, and fuel costs alone for me are about $40 a week. $30 isn't too bad all things considered.


 No.2857698

>>2856610

Part of the reason unemployment doesn't get brought up much I think is because very few lay-people can actually tell what it means, especially if they're going from what they glean from porkaganda. You have "unemployment" and then you have unemployment, what that means, who counts as unemployed, and explanations for all these various bits of minutia, make it difficult to really get a firm grasp of what unemployment as a statistic is actually conveying.


 No.2857702

>>2857416

>Trump's mistake was thinking that he could fire it up simply by throwing a shit-ton of incentives under the nose of big auto companies

Personally I don't think he really had any intention of "firing up" anything. Dollars Labor vouchers to donuts commiecakes his only intention in becoming president is looting everything lootable and leveraging his position to trade favors with other rich schmucks. Everyone that has an iota of understanding about economics knows that a recession (at the very least) is on the way, and if there's another catastrophic failure like in 07 the president is going to be the prime mover and shaker in deciding who gets bailed out and who gets blamed—ironically enough another legacy of Obama who had his cabinet hand picked by Citigroup and then gave them hundreds of millions of dollars for their trouble.


 No.2857704

>>2856610

>>2856610

>>2856610

>>2856610

was arguing with boomers online that low unemployment is a telltale sign of recession, they said i hated trump


 No.2857706

I'm legitimately proud of the popular education spontaneous process going on in this thread.


 No.2857727

>>2857706

"popular education spontaneous process?"


 No.2857733

>>2857706

Me too I actually learned shit from this thread thanks comrades


 No.2857745

>>2857727

Nobody gave a course about anything but we started to learn a lot about finance, even if it was confused at times. I've learnt stuff like fed reserve interest rates' impact on the economy and explained much about bank bailouts.


 No.2857765

>>2857706

Also me, shilling my vid among others :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CUC1wIcmfY

>Neoliberalism, globalisation, finance & industry - Frederic Lordon (English CC)


 No.2857937


 No.2858142

File: 7a5077f31bd0869⋯.png (60.45 KB, 792x529, 792:529, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2857704

the unemployment rate is a shitty stat because it stops counting you when you give up looking for work, check labor force participation rate instead

37% of americans capable of working are still not working. we're still far behind the 2008 employment levels.


 No.2858162

>>2858142

>because it stops counting you when you give up looking for work

Wouldn't this actually mean you are not in the reserve army of labor any more? Actually, people dropping out in this manner may even raise wages because it increases the number of dependents on those who still work.


 No.2858429

>>2858162

Recently the "discouraged" workers that aren't counted in the unemployment rate and that mainstream economists assumed would never be able to work anymore because they weren't able to find jobs after the recession (and suffer from underemployment) have begun working again due to demand, so porky has started tapping the NEET market instead of raising wages.


 No.2858520

>>2858429

Like Micheal Roberts shows here >>2856689

There is a "japanification" of first world economies, that is, from now on, the only prospects for a big part of the youth is either to work shitty part-time precarious jobs like the baito (バイト) (which is a word that comes from the German arbeit and means exactly shitty precarious part-time job) you can find in Japan or becoming NEETs.


 No.2858533

File: 2d92193643811f8⋯.jpg (75.48 KB, 618x741, 206:247, 1540530446046.jpg)

Dear Lord:

Please let this evil, sinful practice of capitalism, in all its greed, collapse to the ground. Let the current way of things pass away, so we may finally exit this suffering world and know Your eternal grace in Your Heavenly Kingdom, forever and ever.

I pray all of this in Your name, Jesus Christ. So let it be. Amen.

-Your friend, anon.


 No.2858575

>>2858520

>the only prospects for a big part of the youth is either to work shitty part-time precarious jobs like the baito (バイト) (which is a word that comes from the German arbeit and means exactly shitty precarious part-time job

keep in mind Japan is so cucked that the "part time" work is 8 hours a day


 No.2858610

>>2858520

yang gang when?


 No.2858613

>>2858533

If god was real capitalism wouldn't exist.


 No.2858616

>>2858613

u must go back to reddit.com/r/atheism


 No.2858779

>>2858520

>>2858575

don't forget those jobs are going to be automated out of existence. can't beat a worker who's pay rate is electrons.


 No.2858783

File: 29e43feda0295ba⋯.png (372.56 KB, 601x515, 601:515, 5b97296d79a05311a4c7471492….png)

>>2858613

>the demiurge would never create a system that enslaves people and forces them into a dichotomy to serve the interests of either materialistic capitalism or non-materialistic abrahamism which would empower him either way


 No.2858839

>>2858779

No, there's always comparative advantage.

Unfortunately that means you may have to work for less than $2/day to compete with robots, but hey, at least you'll have a job!


 No.2858845

File: 65c199f5aa330c3⋯.jpg (141.08 KB, 952x712, 119:89, D3kUAG4UYAAvkZx.jpg:large.jpg)

File: a5e00c960323238⋯.jpg (56.93 KB, 1264x758, 632:379, D3kWQ82XsAE2Ii8.jpg:large.jpg)

File: 9c497568eee3be8⋯.jpg (107.93 KB, 719x1775, 719:1775, D3lT6PNWAAAu5ZR.jpg:large.jpg)

OH NO NO NO


 No.2858849

File: 9597e492c6c4b3c⋯.jpg (36.95 KB, 540x518, 270:259, tothemoon.jpg)


 No.2858857


 No.2858859

The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

The U.S. saw its highest level of layoffs in a first quarter since 2009, data from staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Thursday showed.

By the numbers: Employers cut 190,410 jobs in the first 3 months of the year — 10.3% higher than the number of layoffs announced in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 35.6% higher than job cuts announced in the same quarter of 2018.

The impact: It's the highest number of job cuts in a quarter since 2015.

Details: The financial industry saw the third highest number of layoffs and the year-to-date total was 239% higher than it was in 2018.

Retailers continue to lead all sectors in job cuts this year with 46,061 in Q1. However, that number is 18.5% lower than retail cuts announced in Q1 2018.

Retailers have announced plans to close 4,048 stores so far this year.

The bottom line: The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of companies' layoff intentions.

https://www.axios.com/us-q1-layoffs-in-a-decade-6309b133-5212-4204-976b-347de6f4ad41.html


 No.2858862

File: a82040847fab5ff⋯.jpg (69.68 KB, 1024x511, 1024:511, D3lHYTBXoAAMK5L.jpg:large.jpg)


 No.2858868

>>2858862

I remember watching the 2008 recession live on Dow Jones with daily 400 point losses. When can I do that again? This month or the next?


 No.2858877

>>2858868

Everything seems to indicate that the real panic will start in some months. Maybe six to ten months I'd say.


 No.2858937

>>2858862

just a correction


 No.2858940

>>2858877

My gut says September/October, since historically recessions tend to hit in those months.


 No.2858951

>>2858940

These months seem to be all over the place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Great_Depression_onward

Marx claimed that turnover cycles (fixed capital especially) were the underlying cause of the "schedule" for recessions (Capital Vol 2), though I had some trouble parsing the exact chain of events it causes. He claimed that fixed capital had an average turnover rate of 10 years. As far as I understand it, when it comes time to replace the fixed capital, a number of crises occur:

- All the money from deprecation that has been saved up over the lifespan of the fixed capital is withdrawn from banks/passive investment to purchase new fixed capital, fucking up credit and loans (it's almost a bank run).

- Some companies might find that the replacement capital is too expensive/they didn't properly save for it.

- Rate of Profit for new generation of fixed capital is even lower (less labor involved), causing panics/holdbacks.

- ???

As well, the reason that fixed capital investment is roughly synchronized is that all investment is motivated by potential profit. So AFTER a crash, and after capital is destroyed in the crash, the ROP recovers and there is a big wave of investment in fixed capital.

So what does turnover have to do with the market crash month? There are shorter turnover cycles, such as that of goods in circulation. In the USA, this revolves around Black Friday/Christmas for many industries. If consumers happened to reduce purchases at this time, it would lengthen turnover and cause a crisis for many businesses, requiring reduced output or a pause while waiting for the revenue. This would lend credence to a crash after Black Friday, since it could send bad signals. But this would depend on consumer behavior (and thus wages), which would have to go bad first. Something worth looking into I guess.


 No.2858952

>>2858951

>deprecation

*depreciation


 No.2859287

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/08/a-simon-property-group-mall-generates-largest-loss-ever-for-retail-cmbs/

>The dust has settled and the numbers have emerged: A $200-million commercial real estate mortgage on an indoor mall of over 1 million square feet in a suburb of Kansas City, MO, generated a $149.7 million loss for commercial mortgage-backed securities investors, for a loss ratio of 74.9%, when the mall was sold in a foreclosure sale. On Thursday, Trepp, which provides analysis on CMBS, reported that it was “the largest loss ever incurred by a retail CMBS loan.”


 No.2859573

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-cryptocurrency-idUSKCN1RL0C4

China intending to ban bitcoin mining. Such a waste of cheap electricity. crypto market should have fun today.


 No.2859589

>>2859573

Best news today.


 No.2859621

File: 06c612823304d83⋯.png (59.17 KB, 732x287, 732:287, 1.png)


 No.2859645

File: 8c6a12b490bfda3⋯.png (299.78 KB, 1002x795, 334:265, up bart down bart.png)

>>2859621

>checking how much the btc can drop

>notice it's basically upbarts with no downbarts recursively

Oh no


 No.2859646

Keep an eye on SENSEX (bombay stock exchange), looks very worrying to me


 No.2859656

>>2859645

they could pump on a yearly basis


 No.2859657

Someone check this later but I'd short Microsoft now.


 No.2859670

Someone check this later but I'd short Capitalism now.


 No.2859672

>>2859645

Explain this highly sophisticated economic theory of up- and downbarts to me, please.


 No.2859673


 No.2859675

>>2859573

the shitcoin price will end up going up because there will be less supply


 No.2859677

>>2859672

Crypto due to is nature is highly sensitive to manipulation. In fact there is nothing but manipulation going on.

Bart means pump & dump. Upbart means someone bought his own coins for a massive price increase to drive the prices up so that he can dump more (downbart). Downbarts and upbarts happen on day to day or even months to months basis.


 No.2859682

File: 03619b674257d51⋯.jpg (65.44 KB, 950x534, 475:267, 2015/03/06/df/homer.de01b.….jpg)

>>2859677

I see.


 No.2859855

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/08/what-would-stocks-do-in-a-world-without-buybacks-goldman-asks/

>Companies buying back their own shares has “consistently been the largest source of US equity demand.” Without them, “demand for shares would fall dramatically.” Too painful to even imagine.


 No.2860961

File: 09d68f68f4b1f93⋯.png (56.86 KB, 746x310, 373:155, 1.png)

I am crypto. I am poop my pants.


 No.2860965

File: fcd7962340bc14f⋯.png (18.61 KB, 339x285, 113:95, 1.png)

>>2860961

That's a Bart right there.


 No.2860982

>>2859682

>3987^12 + 4365^12 = 4472^12

You motherfucker.


 No.2861038

>>2860965

Let's hope for our cryptofriends out there it doesn't turn into a downbört


 No.2861119

>>2859675

not how it works. A set number of btc is mined every 10 minutes. It doesn't matter how many people are mining.


 No.2861307

File: 48be933b549d902⋯.jpg (60.17 KB, 640x480, 4:3, 22330_screenshots_2011-12-….jpg)

A tragedy is unfolding in the stock market that should worry both bulls and bears

When this rally runs out of steam, the ensuing crash could topple the economy

In the U.S. stock market, it’s all going to end badly. Even some ardent bulls will freely admit to it. The question is how, when and where.

Frankly, a tragedy is unfolding, and discerning eyes can see it. Since the December lows, the stock market has taken the scripted route higher, salivating at the prospect of dovish central bankers once again levitating asset prices higher. It’s a Pavlovian response learned over the past 10 years. Record corporate buybacks keep flushing through the market, and cheap-money days are here again as yields have dropped markedly since their peak last fall.

But investors may sooner or later learn the hard way that this sudden capitulation by central bankers is not a positive sign, but rather a sign of desperation.

In recent years, the stock markets have grown larger than the economy, and they are now big enough to take the economy down with them when they deflate.

The construct is poor, both technically and fundamentally (driven by central banks, jawboning and buybacks), and as it keeps levitating vertically higher, it becomes ever more subject to sudden reversal risk.

What we can do is be mindful of the overall environment, the driving factors and technicals, and recognize that global markets, central banks, politics, the economy, the business cycle and technicals are all converging in 2019 for a toxic combination that may result in combustion. Stay sharp.

>crash date will be October 2019

>possibility of a 30% drop

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-tragedy-is-unfolding-in-the-stock-market-that-should-worry-both-bulls-and-bears-2019-04-11


 No.2861454

File: bacc78859c308e1⋯.jpg (163.5 KB, 1420x1188, 355:297, wojak_05.nocrop.w710.h2147….jpg)

Found this thread on /doomer/ and have been skimming it pretty interesting:

https://8ch.net/doomer/res/5383.html#9533

The main post I wanted to get y'alls opinion on is this:

"In year 2008 our entire financial system was at risk because for many years since the dotcom bubble, money was given cheaply to banks and they used it not for production but for speculation. Lehman Brothers crashed as a result of this insanity. Then to boost growth and make the recession as unhurtful to normalfags as possible, Fed Chariman lowered interest rates near 0% to "stimulate the economy". However, the same shit happened again and everyone used the cheap money from the central bank not to boost production and the real economy, but to speculate. As a result, asset prices have been inflated into infinity, even higher than in the previous bubble:

>real estate prices near all time highs (especially in Vancouver, Sydney, Melbourne, SanFran and London thanks to Chinese millionaires)

>stock indices all over the world in all time highs

>interest rates for savers nearly at 0% (pension funds need to invest in risky stuff to pay the pensions of old people)

On top of that, you have the following problems

>companies in record debts all over the world

>governments in record debts all over the world

this is now becoming a nasty thing because interest rates are going up again.

So more and more of company and tax revenues is used to service their debts.

General Electric is plagued by this right now. They have loaded up so much debts that now with higher interest rates they have lost their credit rating.

They are traded as junk right now and cannot borrow short term money from the regular markets anymore.

To make it short. Since 2008 there has been lots of malinvestment all over the world. And now the mess is beeing cleaned up in a very nasty way."


 No.2861575

>>2861119

won't the reward be distributed differently instead of mostly going to chinese mining companies?


 No.2861707

File: 7f2d2d66277bff9⋯.jpg (8.35 KB, 225x225, 1:1, download.jpg)

>>2861307

October?? Shieet, I still have to radicalize faster !!!


 No.2861722

>>2861707

>unironically posting stirner pepe

Yes, you do.


 No.2861791

>>2861307

Isn't October the new Brexit deadline too?


 No.2861796

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/12/chinese-imports-slump-amid-trade-standoff-with-united-states

>Fears about the strength of the global economy have been sparked by a fall in Chinese imports last month, as the trade war between Washington and Beijing puts a brake on growth.

>Imports to China fell by 7.6% in March compared with a year earlier, according to official figures, worse than City economists’ forecasts for the volume of goods bought from abroad to grow by 0.2%.


 No.2861826

>>2861575

To a degree but there will be black market bitcoin mining. China's also globalizing so they are liable to just move their server farms elsewhere.


 No.2862150

File: 523112e64043d1d⋯.jpg (73.21 KB, 300x500, 3:5, approval-rating.jpg)

>>2858533

We have the power of God and Satan with us


 No.2862166

File: d4f8a3d2a77fc34⋯.png (565.58 KB, 934x768, 467:384, happy.png)

>>2861307

>Less than a year until you get to die and be with God for all eternity

Heaven soon, bros.


 No.2862983

>>2861307

Will it be bad enough where I finally have to buy a gun


 No.2863008

File: 22680dd12eaaea8⋯.jpg (22.4 KB, 750x560, 75:56, 22680dd12eaaea8c6459da83d6….jpg)

Daily reminder that,during the last crash we were probably 6 weeks away from supply chains completely going out and food running low

This one is expected to be at least 5 times worse on top of an even more divided west. I can't wait


 No.2863009

>>2861454

Why do you have to say "Y'all" like some Chapotard?

"Y'all" is equally as cancerous as saying "woke" and needs to be killed in a gulag.

Or gas chamber.


 No.2863010

>>2863008

I'm a huge fan of using State power to fuck over Global capital as hard as possible.

Imagine if the US interest rate increased by 13 or 26% on March 26th this year?

And multi trillion dollar fines on corporations, along with executing all billionaires in the world?

And bombing the mansions of bankers and CEO's?

Imagine having some Communist Gore Vidal as President, who is even more nastier than he was before, just this time he's attacking capital even more.

An ideal society would have mansions for everyone.


 No.2863011

>>2863009

>>2863009

I'm from the south you autistic faggot. It's not my fault that hipsters ruined it


 No.2863013

>>2863011

bullshit. no one from the south knows how to use an apostrophe correctly


 No.2863015

File: 80f02e0d23068cb⋯.jpg (51.27 KB, 960x539, 960:539, 23j7hh.jpg)

>>2863013

>hurr everyone from the south is retarded


 No.2863017

>>2863013

Fucking kill yourself.


 No.2863081

>>2861722

>it doesn't get any more radical than stirner. you're either an egoist or a liberal.


 No.2863096

>>2863081

>read actual philosophy you brainlet


 No.2863880

File: 8247a42758ea532⋯.jpg (24.96 KB, 540x281, 540:281, del-1.jpg)

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/a-delicate-moment/

>The IMF estimates that the world economy will grow 3.3% this year, down from the 3.5% it had forecast for 2019 in January. It’s the third time the IMF has downgraded its outlook in six months. The new IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath reckoned the global economy had entered “a delicate moment”. She offered a decisive insight: “If the downside risks do not materialize and the policy support put in place is effective, global growth should rebound. If, however, any of the major risks materialize, then the expected recoveries in stressed economies, export-dependent economies, and highly-indebted economies may be derailed.” So, on the one hand or on the other….


 No.2863895

File: 3505d2367e22564⋯.png (638.09 KB, 936x717, 312:239, 1.png)

lol


 No.2863901

File: 83aff97746f2f60⋯.jpg (296.14 KB, 601x508, 601:508, 1508685654382.jpg)

>>2863895

wtf why isn't it working

markets aren't supposed to be like dis


 No.2863926

File: decdaa9a678a3ce⋯.jpg (42.45 KB, 575x529, 25:23, 1d7.jpg)


 No.2863985

>>2863901

just print more money


 No.2863989


 No.2864111

>>2858616

>2000BC when god was alive

>periodic debt forgiveness and freeing slaves

>interest bearing loans illegal

>need stim economy? just found new city

>no capitalism

>20XX CE

>god dead

>interest a given

>no periodic jubilee

>era of darkest reaction

>©apitalism for foreseeable future

he's got a point Anon


 No.2864114

>>2861307

my body is ready


 No.2864117

Thread is oddly active on a rather dull series of mostly ups in the stock market. The bond market has also just kept to where it was in January.


 No.2864127

>>2858845

Where did you get these from comrade


 No.2864174

File: b8172915ac45e83⋯.png (53.85 KB, 703x304, 37:16, 1.png)


 No.2864277

>>2864117

The mostly ups are an interesting part of the picture. Scares producing drops that are then followed by the market leaping upward is what happens right before the good stuff. Plus we now have an article in market watch talking about how we could see a crash by October


 No.2864486

>>2864117

wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people here trade for a living


 No.2864491

>>2864117

"mostly ups" mean nothing if you look at the larger pic. We still haven't recovered from the mid december dip.


 No.2864624

File: 5ae7d47c2bac2c5⋯.png (257.75 KB, 960x658, 480:329, screen_shot_2016-11-21_at_….png)

>>2864117

>The scene is again set for a new major international financial crisis. Central bankers, leaders of institutions such as the IMF, the OECD and the Bank for International Settlements are all aware of the situation. Many articles in the specialized press proclaim it. One of the factors is the enormous accumulation of debt by large private companies and the way these debts are used.

http://www.cadtm.org/The-mountain-of-corporate-debt-will-be-the-seed-of-the-next-financial-crisis


 No.2866763

File: 98e40b676e7c0f5⋯.png (79.08 KB, 1185x280, 237:56, 1.png)

Did anyone else notice this?

Last buyback update is from ~1 month ago!


 No.2866775

File: 1ef9f0f2ef61a03⋯.jpg (33.77 KB, 576x381, 192:127, blackout period companies.jpg)


 No.2866783

>>2866763

>>2866775

No news is good news :DDDD


 No.2866816

>>2866775

>it ain't happenin, therefore it's all a green zone

holy shit, imagine being this class cucked!


 No.2867218

>>2849866

This is peak stupidity. The gov can, in theory, inflate any asset not just stocks. They have better a job to do, like investing in the productive economy. The stock market is not the real economy.


 No.2867233

File: 363d7b8fcbb6225⋯.png (574.54 KB, 800x1109, 800:1109, Screenshot_2019-04-19-12-0….png)

>>2866763

There's also this


 No.2867236

i'm starting to think the next recession will be the big one

as in, world historical


 No.2867250




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