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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

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File: a46710a2ed37ffd⋯.jpg (62.28 KB, 775x514, 775:514, IMG_20180205_092109.jpg)


monitoring the market, trends, fluctuations

original post:

How can a lefty exploit this to their advantage? Is it too soon to try? DOW down about 1000 points since Thursday.


Post last edited at


File: a49a2a463ec849f⋯.jpeg (5.76 KB, 185x272, 185:272, PANIC.jpeg)



Holy fucking shit


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File: 0dede5635276249⋯.jpg (278.87 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190103-195141….jpg)

Update up a slight bit but i doubt itll stay that way


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File: 38cd44235e99cdd⋯.jpeg (6.32 KB, 216x233, 216:233, VERY GOOD.jpeg)



File: d643c49d00e0939⋯.jpg (287.04 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190103-204543….jpg)

Yeah its burning real good


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"""Plunge""" with Chinese characteristics LMAO


File: 38d9adfb3b50276⋯.png (199.95 KB, 1256x1915, 1256:1915, Capture _2019-01-04-00-35-….png)

push it sideways


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File: 8ef8f705061e4b3⋯.jpg (6.04 KB, 250x229, 250:229, hellyeaaah.jpg)


try keeping those gains



Is that bimbo Biedermann?


File: 54c7291acf2493d⋯.png (30.44 KB, 339x306, 113:102, ClipboardImage.png)



Sauce? Pretty hot tbh






I cannot find it :(

it is just me, or does google reverse image searching SUCK these days, like, fucking BING is at least recognizing this is an anime sketch


File: b2a46cc8f2d79ff⋯.jpg (222.37 KB, 1080x1579, 1080:1579, Screenshot_20190104-104009….jpg)


Nice dead cat bounce bitch boy






File: 3bc4c6043092102⋯.jpg (287.63 KB, 1077x1848, 359:616, Screenshot_20190104-104542….jpg)

Slowly but surely declining


this bitch is flying higher than ozzy


Well it seems as if Powell might not be raising up the interest rates much anymore.


File: 282051dc3395371⋯.jpg (10.36 KB, 178x178, 1:1, ttttattka.jpg)

Wow today sucks


File: d15740b7366d7c8⋯.png (94.26 KB, 1151x579, 1151:579, dow 2008.png)

Check out 2008 DOW. There were punctual upticks. High rising starting days don't mean the bubble bursting phase is over, on the contrary.



Dont fret these gains are most likely air and will burnout next week


The Yield Curve is still inverting you dumbos.






>that gigantic fucking plunge on a single day


Company that I work for just had a major order fall through because of the tariffs. I wonder how many other companies are just now getting hit with this? Powell is probably chickening out on rates over this type of thing and the shutdown.


File: fe7b0016deca0cc⋯.jpg (98.08 KB, 523x714, 523:714, pure bliss.jpg)

>The jig is really up. The big bad bear market is already underway, even if it rallies in January. The debt bubble engineered by the Federal Reserve is blowing up and thundering through the system. The epic market instability of December 2018 on the heels of persistent Fed rate hikes points to major credit problems and especially an inability to roll over old debt into new loans at higher interest rates — in particular loans to zombie enterprises that need to borrow to keep paying interest on previous loans (a lot of that among the shale oil companies). The US government can’t take higher interest rates either. It’s already paying about as much in annual interest on US debt as we pay for our war machine. There are only two ways out, both of them nasty. Either suck up debt defaults, which will induce an impoverishing disappearance of money; or provoke high inflation, by injecting more Central Bank QE “money” into the system, which can destroy the value of money. Inflation is typically the choice of governments because it reduces the face value of debts while it allows government to pretend that it is taking action. In the end, you may have plenty of worthless money, which is no different from having not enough money that retains value.

>So, inflation is the usual choice, but it also typically leads to incendiary resentment among the citizenry when they realize they’ve been played and it takes a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread and a jar of peanut butter. I suppose that Fed chief Jerome Powell knows all too well he’s popped the Mother-of-All-Bubbles. He can blame it on Mr. Trump. Everybody else will, of course. Sometime in the second quarter of 2019, the Fed will resume the money-for-nothing gambit of “quantitative easing” in the hope of arresting the damage, but this time the dollar will lose value uncontrollably and catastrophically. Many people will be ruined, especially retirees at the mercy of insolvent pension funds.

>Before 2019 is out, the US could find itself in a situation worse than the Great Depression. Supply lines are much longer now than they were then. If suppliers can’t get paid because trust has collapsed in the short-term corporate paper system, they won’t deliver supplies, which means you may not eat, or fill your gas tank, or heat your house, or get whatever else you need. Also, the USA in 1931 had not yet transformed itself into the fiasco-waiting-to-happen called suburban sprawl. How is Dallas going to work for people who spend a substantial chunk of their income on mandatory motoring (if there’s little or no income)?

>Stock market activity may appear to stabilize in January, but it will go south again later on in the first quarter and the Bear will growl louder for the rest of the year.

>The shale oil “miracle” was an impressive stunt. For a while, it goosed US production way above the former all-time production peak of 1970, and it achieved that with astounding speed — about a decade. But this is oil that is very expensive and complex to produce. It was made possible by massive borrowing at artificial low interest rates, which are now rising. Something like three-quarters of the shale operators never made a red cent in net profit, and many of these companies will find it hard or impossible to roll over their existing debt, especially with oil under $50-a-barrel. But the price is a deceptive metric. If it zoomed up to $100-a-barrel tomorrow, the effect would only be to crush economic activity, because industry requires cheaper oil to pencil out its operations and citizens can barely afford to drive when gasoline hits $4-a-gallon at the pump. At the lower $45-a-barrel, the price crushes the oil producers. Take your pick. There’s no “Goldilocks” price.

>Trouble in the credit markets could shut down shale production for a period of time and create dire problems for the American economy. That could happen in 2019 as poorer-performing companies fail to get new financing. As mighty as it seems to be, the industry is fraught with fragility. Meanwhile, discovery of new, producible oil has fallen to the lowest level since the 1940s, after three recent previous record low years. Current low oil prices at around $45-a-barrel may give Americans a false sense of security. Low prices are mostly indicative of the collapse of the demand for oil at the global margins



File: bd19a18fcfd7cca⋯.png (25.29 KB, 399x521, 399:521, ClipboardImage.png)


>not posting the actual curve


File: d3efea2ede7b661⋯.gif (603.83 KB, 268x165, 268:165, _olkyacvdoD1qa1vf9o3_400.gif)


>tfw both the U.S, and the U.K are going to break into both glorious revolution due to the instability caused by conservative governments failing the workers, and electoralism failing them, on top of previously unseen economic crises.



They've just used widespread destruction and fascism to reset capitalism in the past, and they can easily do it again.


File: 033739dab1ab805⋯.png (383.97 KB, 357x480, 119:160, 4758.png)


>D.C.-area students owe nearly half a million in K-12 school lunch debt

>School districts sometimes withhold report cards or student records of students with outstanding meal debt.

Wow I wonder why America's debt-slaves aren't fucking launching the economy to the stars. Forget student loan debt, what the fuck is this?


how much do you guys think us gdp/economy will contract after the crash?. My best guess is probably in the 10%-30% range.





File: c5c0a9f40897dee⋯.png (342.89 KB, 673x323, 673:323, 0da47ff9d21ba37e52f7f3e523….png)


100% No survivors

legitmately though probably by more than 10% theres no way they can scrape by like 2008 with fucking everything being a bubble now


File: 626761d7695c95f⋯.jpg (7.24 KB, 225x225, 1:1, me.jpg)

File: 7c5a2375e4a7e30⋯.jpg (19.88 KB, 300x300, 1:1, nice.jpg)



>Me when my mom told me her adopted grandparents meet while stealing bread from a garbage bin.

It's all right because i might find somebody 100% better if the stock market goes down 100%.



Way way more. I wouldn't prononce myself but we will see decades of dow growth lost.



expanding on this, I think we've been in recession for far longer than it seems, financial tools are inherently fucked and cannot accurately measure value, just belief in value which is an entirely historical thing & non predictible by mathematics alone


File: ef82d92a47004fe⋯.png (133.23 KB, 1266x942, 211:157, Screen Shot 2019-01-05 at ….png)

inb4 total collapse


File: 1315652d8f46a10⋯.jpg (227.53 KB, 1079x1452, 1079:1452, Screenshot_20190105-215548….jpg)


Holy fuck it lower than it was in 2009



File: 0ca7027816ba829⋯.png (28.41 KB, 510x109, 510:109, 1.png)

Meanwhile, in a parallel universe.













File: cf841eca7a48eec⋯.png (4.29 KB, 200x146, 100:73, Free_German_Workers_Party_….png)


I was thinking that Germany might go fascist again so I googled neo Nazism in Germoney and found this gold.

The history around it was even better, as the party was controlled by a closeted gay man,

who was outed and had to become more accepting. So he started a Nazi party for gay people too



Only a complete retard would think 0% unemployment means good economy. Unemployment was at 0% right before the subprime mortgage bubble blew up and we know how this ended up


File: b2f6f8b9472073c⋯.png (148.63 KB, 218x265, 218:265, 1347690913195.png)




>In what is being described as Germany’s largest post-World War Two fraud scandal, audits into a tax rebate scheme run by Deutsche Bank have allegedly revealed that senior management at firm were aware that they were scamming the government.

>German tax authorities say that the scheme, which also involved several other global firms including Santander and Macquarie, cost them a grand total of €5.6 billion ($6.36 billion).



Germ*ns BTFO.



>>German tax authorities say that the scheme, which also involved several other global firms including Santander and Macquarie, cost them a grand total of €5.6 billion ($6.36 billion).

this isn't the full sum. i actually worked at one of the law firms that invented this whole thing. the damage is AT LEAST 60 billion €, if not more.



To the German government or did they scam others as well?


File: 8dd96f4e255b58a⋯.png (156.11 KB, 400x416, 25:26, 1516419327671.png)










The funny thing is that job gains and wage growth in the real economy are terrible for the FIRE economy, because it indicates that interest rates are going to be raised again to prevent dreaded inflation.



Details comrade, details.


File: cff02e800b55c38⋯.png (33.3 KB, 515x152, 515:152, 1.png)


File: a582c5e99633734⋯.png (44.95 KB, 1146x182, 573:91, 1.png)

First buyback of the year.


File: 7143b85d5f2736f⋯.jpg (38.58 KB, 699x553, 699:553, DwQI-ntXgAAZhVH.jpg)



this seems, like, a lot



How is taking bread from a garbage bin considered "stealing"?



It depends on where you live in burger land






The same way it's okay for business chains to pour bleach onto the food they throw away. Clapistan hates the poor.



To be fair, not all buybacks are carried out immediately after they are announced. For example in 2018, out of $1.1 trillion, $800 billion worth of stocks were bought back. The rest, $300 billion, will be bought this year.

Also buybacks don't include other forms of cash distribution from corporations to investors, such as dividends and mergers and acquisitions.




That's retarded but there's probably an economic reason for this. Just like some clothing companies burn their products to not "devalue" their brand https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44885983


>be markets

>reach peak after trumpian tax breaks

>then realize this is not sustainable

>DOW tanks from 27K to 22K

>Jerome Powell: we will not allow markets to tank

>go up back to 24K

daily reminder that powell did the exact same thing in September.

He came to calm down the investors and then the hit them with an interest rate hike in the face in september.

The federal reserve is trying to taper their own ponzi. However, tapering a ponzi is not possible because once you take away the easy money, everything starts collapsing.


File: 4939bd90ce098fe⋯.jpg (11.57 KB, 400x400, 1:1, 4939bd90ce098fecc3565514cd….jpg)


>trusting Western statistics on China



Deutsche Bank might be the Lehman brothers of our time.

The reason why they are tanking is because they have trillions of dollars of worthless derivatives in their balance sheet. And investors know it. They had to be rescued in 2011 already. They were heavily invested in worthless greek government bonds and if greece would have been allowed to default, DB would have collapsed and taken the entire German economy with it.

It seems that these geniuses at DB did not learn from their past mistakes…



The funny thing about Trump is that he measures his success with the stock markets. What will he do when markets sink below 25%?

Will he still post on twitter how successful his policies are?

Dow is now entering a cycle of lower lows and lower highs. The trend is clear. It just appears that Powell and his wall street cronies are now trying to lure in main street money and 401Ks into the stock market so they can exit now before it crashes.



He will blame the Democrats.



>"I don't like what economic data says therefore it is unreliable"



>economic policy uncertainty index

I mean…



It's something investors invented to be able to secure their own investments: you can call it dodgy but it is made in good faith, it is a mechanism by which porkies try to analyse their capital investment.



fair fair


File: 9269baffeb09bb9⋯.png (38.78 KB, 899x341, 29:11, Screenshot_2019-01-07 Sams….png)




All taxpayer money


Google cum ex scandal and cum cum scandal. Those are the terms (cum as in the latin word not boycream). It was invented in the 80s as a tax law loophole to get the same tax rebate twice. MFers in the SPD government were warned about it several times and knew about it but didnt stop it. It was only "stopped" in the 2010s by closing the tax loophole (cum ex) in a law that was drafted by the German banks. They put a new loophole inside that reformed law (cum cum) and lost money again. This is still going on btw.

Due to porky EU laws this is also happening in France Austria Netherlands Denmark etc

They claim 63 billion USD were stolen but I assume the damage is even higher, this has been going on for almost 40 years at this point


Tax law is what radicalized me from being a old-school social democrat Jimmy Dore type with anti-imperialism flavor into becoming a full-on Marxist-Leninist (with Cockshott characteristics). I have mentioned my story a few times on leftypol.



*30 years i mean


File: e0ad56ac24cec65⋯.png (43.58 KB, 663x548, 663:548, ClipboardImage.png)




File: 6fbbc5fb19840c8⋯.jpg (32.37 KB, 800x450, 16:9, me.jpg)


Samsung's South Korea you chromosome deficient, East Timorese, Zionist. pictured, you


File: f15a4cbf1aa0f86⋯.png (134.37 KB, 1154x540, 577:270, ClipboardImage.png)




File: e47585d25a3e908⋯.jpg (87.65 KB, 546x521, 546:521, 1188550413823.jpg)

Today's gonna be interesting


File: 8565f6619b48c7a⋯.png (33.62 KB, 541x191, 541:191, 1.png)

File: 0c22ee51c862d40⋯.png (32.36 KB, 546x190, 273:95, 2.png)

Gonna be a red or barely green day.


File: 4624f1e82f9a253⋯.jpg (11.96 KB, 177x177, 1:1, takakakaaao.jpg)

Guys we need a 3PM gang miracle


Can a smart anon explain the impossible trinity to me? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity




>In particular, the East Asian crisis (1997–1998) is widely known as a large-scale financial crisis caused by the combination of the three policies which violate the impossible trinity.[12] The East Asian countries were taking a de facto dollar peg (fixed exchange rate),[13] promoting the free movement of capital (free capital flow)[12] and making independent monetary policy at the same time. First, because of the de facto dollar peg, foreign investors could invest in Asian countries without the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. Second, the free flow of capital kept foreign investment uninhibited. Third, the short-term interest rates of Asian countries were higher than the short-term interest rate of the United States from 1990–1999. For these reasons, many foreign investors invested enormous amounts of money in Asian countries and reaped huge profits. While the Asian countries' trade balance was favorable, the investment was pro-cyclical for the countries. But when the Asian countries' trade balance shifted, investors quickly retrieved their money, triggering the Asian crisis. Eventually countries such as Thailand ran out of dollar reserves and were forced to let their currencies float and devalue. Since many short term debt obligations were denoted in US dollars, debts grew substantially and many businesses had to shut down and declare bankruptcy.

If you try to maintain a stable exchange rate while allowing money to freely flow in and out of your country when you have to cut interest rates in your country because of slowing growth investment banks will pull all their cash out at your government stabilized rate (meaning the central bank will have to issue equivalent amounts of foreign reserve currency to them) and your country's economy will collapse once the foreign cash reserves are exhausted and your currency has to be traded at market value.



So much for the efficiency of the market.



what do you think will be the consequences of the investigation? has something similar happened before?


>leftypol thinks there will be global apocalypse

>check dow

>looks fine

So much for theory!


File: 067c60596c8b565⋯.jpg (224.08 KB, 645x773, 645:773, 1514049942843.jpg)

Dow 24k today



<dow at 2017 prices

>dow looks fine



File: 53666c3745203d1⋯.jpg (47.43 KB, 640x480, 4:3, abandoncommunism.jpg)

3PM gang keeps on failing us


File: 6dbb2249895c726⋯.jpg (104.55 KB, 1906x1024, 953:512, gfhkuf.jpg)


>>dow looks fine


File: 436495d68001f25⋯.png (6.94 KB, 274x184, 137:92, download.png)

tbh we're in the "return to normal stage" expect another week of sideways bullshit before it fucking collapses



I know this is true at all parts of the graph but it's making me kek nervously how true it is for it in its entirety.


File: ca2da46fab2031f⋯.png (192.43 KB, 1268x1174, 634:587, Screen Shot 2019-01-08 at ….png)

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File: 08a89d36f1bf15f⋯.png (210.06 KB, 1266x1174, 633:587, Screen Shot 2019-01-08 at ….png)


be afraid


File: 47e9753f2a2c046⋯.png (529.17 KB, 474x476, 237:238, 47e9753f2a2c046c81d63f3701….png)






>ready for the crash that never comes



>Turn on stock charts today

>Futures +0.2%

>FTSE +1.06%

>DAX +1.08%

>Nikkei +1.1%

I hope you're trolling because those end-of-day declines are just a standard part of those stocks' daily cycles: it goes up a lot, stagnates, and falls a bit. That's how it goes most days.


File: bf5703cce0928e4⋯.png (225.84 KB, 564x376, 3:2, ClipboardImage.png)

Folks, I've scoured the net to bring you the grimmest news.

>[Chinese] consumer confidence is falling and household debt is rising, suggesting that Chinese shoppers won’t be able to act as the global economy’s consumers of last resort for much longer.


German exports are falling, creating the potential to trigger a Europe wide recession.


Fed has kept quantitative tightening going, even they as floated a positive media message, and is back to 2014 levels.




Honestly a massive recession in China could be a good thing, it would take the rest of the world with it and the politically educated Chinese (see: all of them) could decide to trim the fat.



>Fed has kept quantitative tightening

This matters why? If it was bad surely they wouldn't do it.


Any chance that Trump forgets his job and defaults on the national debt?



It sort of determines how much banks can lend, and how large the money supply is. Speculators use margin accounts (or loaned money) to speculate driving up asset prices. Without that borrowing capability, asset prices (like stock prices and real-estate prices) will come down. It takes time for that effect to play out, but it will fit the stock market, and housing market.


Reminder to keep an eye out on the Treasury Yield Curve. The 2 Year and 3 Year ones are shooting up at a meteorite rate.



From a wsb thread on China

>They have a P2P lending crisis - one more firm Yidai died 5 days ago.

>Auto sales are down double digits (~20%)

>One of the large real estate firms Evergrande issued debt at 11% interest

>The whole chinese stock market is in dumpster



It's bad, but less bad than the alternative. They're worried that wages will go up.


File: 2b32b3a0dd4e824⋯.jpg (36.93 KB, 499x499, 1:1, 2b32b3a0dd4e824425acfea459….jpg)



>china fud


File: e20a6cc7562455a⋯.png (119.7 KB, 1920x592, 120:37, Screen Shot 2019-01-09 at ….png)

finally some fucking red


File: 751d4ddcbca313f⋯.png (118.15 KB, 1928x546, 964:273, Screen Shot 2019-01-09 at ….png)


1% when?



Ah, hogwash!


File: 12e58c410104e82⋯.png (121.78 KB, 1918x542, 959:271, Screen Shot 2019-01-09 at ….png)

This is where the fun begins


File: 24019e9158445a9⋯.jpg (287.65 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190109-205445….jpg)

This pleases me


this is the most dialectical thread on /leftypol/


File: c9b04ede66259be⋯.jpg (297.53 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190109-211044….jpg)




>German exports are falling, creating the potential to trigger a Europe wide recession.




File: 0451a97d50d08fa⋯.png (108.44 KB, 1137x748, 1137:748, crypto.png)

Wait till you see the-OH NO NO NO



Time to






I though Shitcoin was going up thanks to all the volatility?

Well, more blood and tears for me


File: 9cd90fd1fd8db9c⋯.jpg (280.63 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190110-093102….jpg)



File: c80b0614d681465⋯.jpg (285.12 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190110-095006….jpg)

Slipity slide


File: d13a46788605322⋯.png (133.99 KB, 607x553, 607:553, SOON.png)

File: e4f616f34963612⋯.png (1.03 MB, 800x960, 5:6, bit closer to heaven.png)

>Financial markets have been behaving in a very turbulent manner in the last couple of months. The issue, as I see it, is that the world economy is gradually changing from a growth mode to a mode of shrinkage.

>What seems to be happening is that the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth, as predicted in the computer simulations modeled in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth. In fact, the base model of that set of simulations indicated that peak industrial output per capita might be reached right about now. Peak food per capita might be reached about the same time.

>Many people have thought that when the world economy reaches limits, the limits would be of the form of high prices and “running out” of oil. What we should really expect, and in fact, what we are now beginning to see, is production cuts in finished goods made by the industrial system, such as cell phones and automobiles, because of affordability issues. Indirectly, these affordability issues lead to low commodity prices and low profitability for commodity producers

>I see Trump’s trade policies primarily as evidence of an underlying problem, namely, the falling affordability of goods and services for a major segment of the population. Thus, Trump’s tariffs are one of the pieces of evidence that lead me to believe that the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth.



File: bd0e6baac4787d8⋯.png (30.85 KB, 950x334, 475:167, Screenshot_2019-01-10 Dow ….png)

File: 8b9b2389304d5f5⋯.png (554.87 KB, 537x538, 537:538, 1646496496491.png)





>Market's already recovering.





Wouldn't it be possible, with sufficient capital and liberal use of high frequency trading, to "cancel out" the market dropping to maintain the appearance of a healthy stock market while the bubble is actually popping?

I guess this would cost a bit but it might cost less than not selling those equities and ending up holding garbage.



if you have spare billions that you were willing to throw at the stock market, then, yes.



I don't know, we could quantify that. If enough financial, banking institution, hedge funds etc. are interested and coalize, they might actually make that as a sort of collective buffer time.


File: 56748d8446710df⋯.png (477.74 KB, 800x1065, 160:213, Screenshot_2019-01-10-21-4….png)


File: 1d5a45e8f697471⋯.png (10.63 KB, 364x86, 182:43, Screenshot_2018-10-09 How ….png)



Holy shit this is what true dialectics are



Where are all the blue socialists crying about backing Trump now?




Lesser evil lifelong Democrat voting socialists.




>advertising your new epic cryptocurrency in 2019 after the bitcoin bubble already crashed in late 2017 which is still happening




He's to crypto what Yukio Mishima was to the Japanese Empire



Wouldn't actually cost that much if you're willing to use high frequency trading to affect the market rather than make optimal moves.


File: ef3f406ed58fcd1⋯.jpg (306.5 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190110-142206….jpg)

This is some manipulative bullshit right here


File: 8d37d4c9d9e801e⋯.png (15.73 KB, 808x805, 808:805, 8d37d4c9d9e801e0b009ee566d….png)






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Reminding that a feature of Capitalism in crisis is that bourgeois 'dumb money' and people who rely on real economics start throwing excess money-capital into anything that returns equity including the stock market, property, maybe construction, infrastructure see: Domino's and the late capitalist wild ride etc. That real FIRE shit. If finance collapses watch the rate of profit just fucking drop to nothing.

they'll have no choice but war or a new deal and contracting into public works. full employment and new capital development means low ratios of profit but more instances of return.



fuck germ*ns



File: ad2b0af90868eb4⋯.jpg (286.75 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190111-095200….jpg)

Finally some fucking red


>GM predicting large 2019 profit via savings made from mass layoffs they recently carried out


So I've been posting in /biz/'s smg thread for a couple months now under the trip gommie faggot. AMA.


extreme cost cutting is one way we know profitability is becoming an ever greater problem.



I have been visiting /biz/ occasionally since the great bitcoin crash, especially on red days for cryptos to have a good laugh, and recently on my occasional forays into that board, I have remarked that, lately, there were more and more openly anticapitalist/socialist post and threads on /biz/ and 4Chan in a whole. Do you share this sentiment or is it wishful thinking on my part?

What is your opinion on /leftypol/?

What is your favorite contemporary Marxist thinker?

What is your favorite revolution ?



Yeah I think a part of that anti/capitalist socialist posting is /leftypol/ visitors, the other part is how obvious it is in the board's culture that wage labor is slavery and shitty, and how many people were burned by risky investments.

I've posted on /leftypol/ for a long time but I took a break for the past year. It got boring, and the BO made everything worse.


Well, I don't know if he counts as contemporary but Althusser. After him, it's Zizek and Wolff.

>favorite revolution

hmmm, perhaps Rosa Luxemburg's attempt in Germany after WW1. Otherwise the French February revolution of 1848 which Marx detailed in the Class Struggles in France.



Many heterodox economists (Keynesians and Marxists alike) foresee a global financial crisis, on a level on par with 2008 if not worse, anytime in the next two years. Do you believe this? If so, when do you think it would happen?



Yeah, most of my posts on /bix/ that aren't related to socialism are advising people to get into bonds and other safehaven assets so they can avoid the crash.

There are a lot of big risks in the global economy. US corporate debt, Chinese private debt/real estate bubble are two massive ones. The combination of a tight labor market, trade war costs, and rising rates could likely spell disaster for profits and thus ignite a chain reaction if a big corporation in a durable good industry defaults. My money is it'll be the auto industry.



>My money is it'll be the auto industry.

Yes that's what I'm thinking too, in the U.K. and Germany car sales,in the last quarter, have tanked (if I'm not mistaken Germany is already showing signs of the start of a recession). My bet is Q4 2019, by then Europe will be as a whole in a recession and the effect of Trump's tax cut on the market will have lost most of its steambye (bye bye buybacks).


File: 8f98c2f99ba2dfc⋯.pdf (43.26 KB, the-chart-shows-the-annual….pdf)



>Many people have thought that when the world economy reaches limits, the limits would be of the form of high prices and “running out” of oil. What we should really expect, and in fact, what we are now beginning to see, is production cuts in finished goods made by the industrial system, such as cell phones and automobiles, because of affordability issues. Indirectly, these affordability issues lead to low commodity prices and low profitability for commodity producers.

Isn't this related to the marxist claim that there is a tendency of the rate of profit to fall?



Yes, see the PDF in





I wouldn't be surprised if it happened sooner than that. And yeah, a stagnant or falling rate of profit is the underlying catalyst for every crisis.

I think a similair principle applies to normal profitability with the durable good sector since these are industries which are incredibly important to debt markets one way or another, making their failure a fast contagion to the rest of the economy. A falling or stagnant level of retained earnings in durable good manufacturing has preceded the last 3 recessions.



I feel like I frequently misunderstand what the TFRP is saying so take this with a grain of salt (maybe I'll get critiqued and there will be a better answer) but I don't think so. He still sounds like he is saying that we are "running out" of oil, but not necessarily directly. Like suddenly the wells are running dry. Rather, he is talking about affordability "for a major segment of the population", which sounds like he is saying consumers don't have enough money. The old Keynesian aggregate demand problem.

TFRP, as I understand it, suggests that capitalist competition results in increasing labor productivity through investment in capital goods, which drives down profit margins. However, capital goods are expensive fixed costs. Building a new factory or ordering equipment can be big expenses. So you drive down profit margins, which if this happens across multiple sectors of the economy can drive down the average rate of profit, and suddenly re-investing capital seems more risky/expensive because the return isn't as good. More capitalists or firms cut back on productive investment and start hoarding money in various ways (equities and bonds, other assets like real estate). This initiates the crisis in the form of cutting off demand for capital goods, which causes the producers of plant and equipment to see their revenue drop. They may start going out of business, defaulting on loans or laying people off. This can trigger the spiral downwards as consume demand also begins to fall.

But generally speaking crises aren't initiated by consumers. Consumers have a handful of staples that they buy, most of them have a predictable income. They buy clothes, food, utilities, rent, etc. but it is the capitalists who have massive piles of money that they can move with flexibility into various investments which are the demand and revenue for other capitalists. The movement of that money which is driven by a demand for higher profits is the domino that most frequently causes some kind of crisis.


sup bear gang

anyone get liquidated yet?


File: 35e4a7ce704197f⋯.jpg (85.04 KB, 1201x971, 1201:971, SHUTDOWN_COST.jpg)

Based Trump fucks over the US economy yet again. I bet you anti-accelerationists feel really fucking stupid now.


weekly reminder to check out the yield curve. Currently the 2 and 3 year treasury yields have been rising, while the 10 year treasury has been lowering. It is currently around 15-25 points below the 10 year treasury, but it is rather rapidly declining. At it's latest the yield curve will invert at April.




1 through 7 year have already inverted, which is good enough for me



Dude because of the shutdown no one can send in their tax returns.

It's fucking awesome.



$7.1B is literally nothing. Wake me up when it's a hundred times that.



federal workers, including those working in national security, are now working without pay, with quite a few quitting. US cybersecurity, which includes telecommunications and power grids are now at risk.

Trump is literally disregarding national and cyber security for his I Love Mal wall.



I hope he goes on trial for that stupid fucking wall



gommie faggot is biz's best character. Always livens up the threads, like a heel.



800k workers is also nothing. Wake me up when it's ten times that.



thank you anon, I do my best.







File: 1b9504da9509826⋯.jpg (51.79 KB, 1024x480, 32:15, 1499748957107.jpg)


Can someone tl;dr this?


File: 3d4d7c265b47f97⋯.png (412.67 KB, 576x566, 288:283, po.png)


>They're worried that wages will go up.

Oh yeah. Wouldn't want that.



I don't know why you bother giving well thought out responses to the retards in those threads. But I suppose I enjoy shitposting in them a bit too much.

t. pendulumisafaggot




I'm just addicted to effort posting. I haven't really found a better place to put my thoughts about the economy down in writing.



>Trump is literally disregarding national and cyber security for his I Love Mal wall.

That's a good thing though.



Pension funds have to pay more than they earn, and will eventually face a crisis around 2023, if things continue along the same trend.



well keep at it then, I enjoy your posting there


File: 47c91de83f634c8⋯.png (277.97 KB, 706x412, 353:206, 1500003082739.png)

>Citigroup reports flunk

>Citigroup and other banks proceed to rise dramatically

What the heck am I missing?



Everyone was expecting a bad ER from C, and it wasn't bad as expected. Though I think C is the most exposed to global shit and the worst indicator of the big banks, JPM/GS ER tomorrow will be make or break, until tech starts shitting the bed again.



>TSA not getting paid

Oh man if anyone's been tempted to smuggle weed on a plane now's the time


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the dow has been down all day guys


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Not Low 'Nuff!!


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>Citigroup sucks

>Stock goes up

>JPMorgan has massive gains

>Everyone panics



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I'm kind of worried some false flagger or actual terrorist might do some shit and then everybody will get on board with reopening the government and pushing through bullshit while also allowing Trump to blame dems giving him better chances in 2020.


How is JPMorgan now at a 1-month high despite the bad news? What is it that I'm missing?



The last time the market collapsed citigroup got bailed out to the tune of billions of dollars and then were punished by picking Obama's board of advisors. I would imagine citi's government protection is a factor.




goldman sachs


File: df5b7b8827628f2⋯.png (31.41 KB, 591x197, 3:1, ClipboardImage.png)


>Chinese Property Market

I mean, they expected hundreds of thousands of peasants moving into cities to be able to earn bucketloads from the export oriented economy and pay exorbitant rents before the trade war and the global slowdown started to hit. Despite the government attempting to increase high-tech manufacturing a few elite workers in likely automated plants aren't going to be able to rent out whole shoddily constructed speculative apartment blocks. In addition even if China managed to train a large portion of the population to enter into high-tech industry it would lead to a supply glut and falling prices and rate of profit which would still render them unable to support the greed of landlords.


File: a96e2b16b97c395⋯.jpg (45.51 KB, 288x358, 144:179, 1503849844464.jpg)

>Netflix releases quarterly report

>Results better than expected

>Stock immediately falls 3% post-market



Down is the new up.



Guess we're in for the golden bull market then!


File: c9fdd1f2149f996⋯.png (229.27 KB, 706x862, 353:431, ClipboardImage.png)



>18% price increase

>8% customer decrease, will be made up anyways

>Netflix puts more funds into originals and thrives

How is this a problem? "Might" is not "will" or "will outcompete", for all we know it could go like Walmart and cancel its plans at streaming.


File: c9679187c478684⋯.png (359.67 KB, 753x613, 753:613, ClipboardImage.png)


Costco is launching a competitor as stated in the link, Prime and alternative services are drawing away customers, also Netflix is losing 20% of its library. It might as well be the Ford in the 1930s of the streaming world.



Except Disney is starting their own service and taking all their properties with them. Everyone wants their own special stream to lock out competition, which is why Netflix is gambling on their original productions.

I also recommend Damnation btw. It's revolutionary as hell. The very first episode the mc quotes Marx word for word. It's great.


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File: 81815713021f367⋯.jpg (509.55 KB, 1085x775, 7:5, 1546109254596.jpg)

It's over.


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Leftist cucks on suicide watch, capitalism won confirmed



Haven't seen Damnation but I'll recommend Frontier. It feels like budget GoT set in colonial Canada. The villains are greedy capitalists plundering the land and the """anti"""-heroes are basically terrorists/fugitives fucking their shit up. Based on the quotes they put at the start of the episodes (cringeworthy I know) the people making it are class-pilled.


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I hope he gets his fucking wall.


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this may be a larp but please god let this be real


you guys should move this general to 4/biz/ and troll them with marxian economics 24/7


File: ab5e272aa5090f6⋯.png (395.46 KB, 782x387, 782:387, secret quantitive easing.PNG)


Seems factual but the dates are way off. This is going to crash way before December.



Nevermind I misread it. Seems good.



That graph is literally just central banks buying stocks, right? Is there any news to corroborate that?



Also, why did they track together and then diverge?


File: c4de3c60b20723c⋯.jpeg (33.12 KB, 720x284, 180:71, chart1.jpeg)



correlation does not guarantee causation

don't be fooled by 1 year of gerrymandered data with some lines drawn on it

the apparent connection would likely disappear if you looked at 10 years of data


File: b554a65cf36e668⋯.jpg (35.51 KB, 346x386, 173:193, 1358497430825.jpg)


>hyperinflation in USA



They're not buying stocks. They're buying bonds back, flooding the economy with liquidities to artificially stimulate the market and keep up the appearances of stability. This isn't good. Banks are NOT supposed to be doing quantitative easing atm.




To further elaborate on that, I suspect they've been doing that in 2015, also february 2018, september 2018 and 3rd week of december 2018. This is a short-term emergency measure that only allows them to buy time and only makes the real crash harder. Out of control hyperinflation in the US will most likely happen once this strategy fails.


File: 5c04ef6c59c12a4⋯.png (21.68 KB, 128x128, 1:1, bourdieupalm.png)



What are they buying time for? Why bother?



If we see a 2008-type of stock market krach, Trump might as well be done for.



Doesn't he plan on running for a second term though? Or just finish this one and throw the blame to the next president?



It literally doesn't matter. If the stock market blows up this year, he will lose the support of the industrials/his core base. If we're looking to a truly apocalyptic scenario (which is very likely at this point), Trump might as well be already dead in the water.



>his core base

That's where you're wrong, Trump's suburban base would absolutely pick up the gun and go to war if he asked them to, would they succeed? No, would they cause a lot of pain and suffering to the Feds and ordinary people? Absofuckinglutely



I don't think you understand. We're looking at extreme levels of unemployment/hyperinflation.



And 30% of Americans believe his every word as if it were from the mouth of Christ, if he says the Dems and antifa ruined the economy, they'll believe it.



The problem (for them at least) is that they are also too old to do anything except die.



Be prepared for wheelchair suicide bombs


File: ed49d97db8601f4⋯.png (16.19 KB, 64x64, 1:1, Non-Discriminatory_Conscri….png)


War… war has changed…


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nikkei open nothing special happening probably will close by 92 points lunch time then maybe slow decline from their



tbh there's something about margarine that makes marriages go sour


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File: 62c2a35c9160d24⋯.png (150.69 KB, 1113x326, 1113:326, 2.png)

5 billion buyback comin thru



Will we ever see deflation? I kind of want to see deflation of the market at least once in my life before I die / the economic mode of production changes.


File: 04a227c96cd0def⋯.jpg (40.43 KB, 720x720, 1:1, 1500563200009.jpg)





If the Federal Reserve is reducing its balance sheet that means it's auctioning off assets and taking money out of the market. Capitalists are complaining about the balance sheet reduction, along with the rising interest rate both are taking money out of the market and they can't make their profits as easily. They bought a bunch of assets from the failing banks during the recession to keep them operating with free money since they weren't making any profitable investments. Originally they bought government bonds, but the banks ran out so the government bought mortgage-back securities instead.

It looks like the Federal Reserve reverse course to buying assets again but the problem is the banks are holding fucking nothing but bad corporate loans. The Fed isn't allowed to buy stocks under current law if the bonds and mortgages run out.


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File: 477b0435bf8558b⋯.png (250.57 KB, 1996x1172, 499:293, Screen Shot 2019-01-21 at ….png)

>the federal reserve has blown through 400 billions dollars since January 2018 to keep the market alive

holy fuck


File: 29db8ade0092072⋯.gif (578.26 KB, 480x368, 30:23, boxxy_love.gif)


Combine that with (I'd say roughly) the same amount of private buybacks and we've got a recipe for LOOOOooOVE


File: d846c4258edfc6a⋯.png (236.23 KB, 595x528, 595:528, ayyyyy.png)

You know what comrades, allow me to make a broad statement. Considering how I'd say the international position of communism is lost since the USSR, we have essentially a dead worker's movement, and the class struggle has been obscured by false consciousness to its highest point in history, everybody on this board hopes and believes this upcoming crash will be the largest validation of Marxist ideas not only to the the mainstream, but to themselves as well. Most of us here are young, the legacy of communist movements only touches some by association, and as such, our lives and the public perception filled with hostility and ridicule that weighs so heavily in our hearts bleeds into a quasi-religious hope. To even those who are well-read in theory, and in less dire cicumstances, their revolutionary conviction would not be shaken in the slightest, they cannot help but enjoy the perverse pleasure of how cold, harsh reality clearly destroys bourgeois ideology in its purest form. I am not trying to accuse anybody of anything, just pointing out this observation with the reminder, whether any comrade needs it, that with the emerging troubles means an increases responsibility on any self-proclaimed Marxist to actively organize, practice self-dicipline, and insert themselves into the class struggle in the effort to instill that revolutionary character into a fledgling working class movement.


File: 805c5eb15c4db02⋯.jpg (20.45 KB, 320x320, 1:1, 82c3c3ba7d67d2a10d06099e39….jpg)


Anon that means they're selling off assets to take money off the market, not to put money into it.


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Nice red


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1% when?


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File: 0ba9e5c3e3e8bb6⋯.jpg (25.37 KB, 498x405, 166:135, f24844af1d492be960b470f26d….jpg)


so the tax breaks lead to $1trn buybacks, and half the buybacks are consumed by federal reserve asset sales.



Sounds healthy :^)




This balkanization of media platforms is such a good argument for nationalization.


File: 66122f28aed8253⋯.png (133.82 KB, 1964x550, 982:275, Screen Shot 2019-01-22 at ….png)

Fucking finally some good red


all in all the odds of the market crash occuring before march are low



Eh, it's gonna happen sooner or later anyway. Later might be better since you time to prepare but it's not like I'm not hoping for red every time I check Reuters' stock section




*since you get more time to prepare



I already bought physical gold. The prices have been soaring since I've bought it and should capitalism hold, I'll be wealthy. Gold in a superinflation context is pretty much the only refuge value.



Good luck, I'd buy if I had the funds for it atm.


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File: df92f873dca623e⋯.png (717.25 KB, 878x945, 878:945, 234234234.png)

Here we go



Ho boy



US is finding out how weak their negotiating position actually is when they can't just invade or coup their negotiating partner.


File: db11851490d5d24⋯.png (39.2 KB, 134x185, 134:185, 20190122_140051.png)



>tfw your diplomacy is practically shit when there isnt the threat of war or coup detat backing your statement


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im ready for 500


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Fire I'll take you to burn


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File: 8b87a494c755bac⋯.png (4.47 KB, 42x100, 21:50, Screen Shot 2019-01-22 at ….png)

oh fuck off cuck boi



This is the dude that shorted the banks in 2008 in the movie "The Big Short". (don't watch this video , but if you do, skip to 15:45)

Anyway here's a quote:

>In 2007 the size of the triple B (1 above junk) corporate bond market was 750 billion. Today it's 2.7 trillion.

>The real issue is that nobody will buy this debt for the same price as the did in 2007. Dealer inventory has shrunk by 80 billion from 100 billion in 2007 (so 20 billion today) because of the Volcker rule. That means that when the crisis comes, losses will be colossal, since banks will buy this debt for way less, if at all.

That being said, he doesn't see a crisis this year or the next….




>corporate debt

some of you guys are alright, don't work for corporations tomorrow


File: 10e8b1b38b1d992⋯.png (46.44 KB, 1014x304, 507:152, 1.png)

Dow under 20k by mid February.

screencap this


File: 349befe78f993d1⋯.jpg (17.32 KB, 400x400, 1:1, 1547933303409.jpg)

Trader says he has ‘no money at risk,’ then promptly loses almost 2,000%

>“Stay tuned for the comeback tour,” he wrote this week.




It's not that he doesn't see it, it's that he doesn't predict anything.


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File: 3a7278ce5cad8ab⋯.png (123.73 KB, 1926x556, 963:278, Screen Shot 2019-01-23 at ….png)

there was an attempt at green


So what's to stop the Feds from just using QE to reinflate the same bubble that's about to pop when it does ad infinitum?


File: 37d0eb3dc7ed685⋯.png (130.43 KB, 1938x566, 969:283, Screen Shot 2019-01-23 at ….png)

from nearly 300 points green to 70 points red wew



money running out tbh theyve spent more than 400 billion dollars since jan 2018 to keep the market alive as seen here >>2794107 they cant simply keep pumping money eventually they'll run out of money and everything goes fubar due to a horrifically more inflated bubble meaning a greater crash



A runaway train of corporations bidding up the stock market so much that becomes obvious that's it's a bubble and all that cash leaves the stock market and bids up real commodities like food, water etc causing hyperinflation. Its already kinda happened in the real estate market. Demand is flat or falling, but prices are rising still.


File: e4c79b407249f36⋯.png (38.61 KB, 662x272, 331:136, Screen Shot 2019-01-23 at ….png)

the fuck?



Awesome, I'll check it out



For QE to work there first has to be wealth to be quantitatively eased, and that penny's spent. People went broke in 2008 and never really got it back, while every government on the planet is looting every public service or subsidy possible while slash and burning through the budgets at every level of government (except military of course).

The writing is on the wall. They know full well that a crash is coming, one way or another, and even if they don't believe it will or could happen, it's not like they're not so fantastically wealthy that they can't afford to waste a few billion banking on the end of the world.

Even if the result isn't apocalyptic, it seems pretty clear that the bourgeoisie are preparing to just abandon civil government and resort to martial law. If the economy crashes, they have no plan for getting it started again. They cut social programs month after month, are scrapping virtually all environmental protections, openly meddle in elections, and have spent the past decade siphoning capital out of the public and government while also stealing literally hundreds of billions of dollars from the public, which they horde despite the immense human suffering it causes, and turning the police force into a domestic occupying army, paid for by the people it's built to kill.

The political status quo that has endured since the end of WW2 is about to come crashing down and the people in charge have no idea what to do, except grab everything they can before time is up.


are empathetic CEOs generally bad at their jobs?

Would you class Tim Cook as one?


how is the venezuela intervention going to affect the price of Oil?




Less oil from Venezuela, at least currently, means less world supply and therefore greater demand, which reflects the recent increase in oil price. This will likely be undone and oil will fall in value again once Venezuela is 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧stabilized🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧.



would be a massive pump and dump if it full recovered, surely not



They are because they are drunk on ideology. Being nice as a CEO isn't going to improve the life of the average worker, he is going to destroy the company anyway. Capitalism cannot solve its own contradictions, he has to be a ruthless psychopath to lead the company to greater profits. Either way the worker is fucked.




Full video so everyone can clip it properly unlike this article (skip to 7:15).






weird how trump keeps bragging about low oil price.


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File: 148a68ea9280b5a⋯.jpg (116.48 KB, 1080x565, 216:113, Screenshot_20190128-094616….jpg)

Ho boi



Who the fuck told the PPT to stop pumping the market?


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>tfw 4th largest crypto is just a fake US dollar


File: 8a93566fbaac28e⋯.png (198.68 KB, 600x335, 120:67, su.png)

Its staying down boys


asia must burn aswell


File: d3411e55be79b55⋯.jpg (284.74 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190128-202720….jpg)


Whoops forgot pic








B-but… onee-chan~… the bubble… it's a-already so big…


File: ffdb30aa5601a4b⋯.png (89.47 KB, 1152x355, 1152:355, 1.png)


$8.5+ billion buyback coming thru


File: dfa82406f6817db⋯.png (60.23 KB, 1192x522, 596:261, curve.png)



They can't stop it, the yield curve is already partially inverted. This is just as good a predictor as a full inversion. Right now, 1 year bonds have better interest than 2, 3, 5, AND 7 year.






Anyone have the comparison chart between the DOW in 2007 and the DOW now since October?


File: a8df12a8bbc7338⋯.png (139.74 KB, 800x519, 800:519, 0gxrKPd.png)

File: 85c7730c93b030d⋯.png (79.86 KB, 780x358, 390:179, bubble.png)

File: d15740b7366d7c8⋯.png (94.26 KB, 1151x579, 1151:579, dow 2008.png)

File: cd0dc6001a5d811⋯.png (63.6 KB, 1145x556, 1145:556, dow 2019.PNG)

File: e8f8d660bdd547a⋯.png (36.01 KB, 869x428, 869:428, vix.PNG)


It's very easy to look for it yourself.



Take a look at the last pic called vix.PNG, it's market volatility measured by the VIX. Take a look at the overall trends. Before 2008, volatility has a smooth curve headed for the bottom, then undergoes a period of instability before spiking to huge amounts (the actual crisis).

We've already had the smooth downwards trend and we've been in instability for a while.


Recession isn’t going to come. It’s obvious this is a massive bubble, but the fed and banks can keep propping it up. Especially because investors are falling all over themselves to buy at any hint of good news and ignoring all bad news. Commies BTFO, I suppose.

Now to continue losing money on SQQQ for the next year


German economy growing far slower than expected. China as well. The ripple effects will hit the US



>but the fed and banks can keep propping it up

Not forever they can't. Eventually the returns people expect aren't gonna turn up. Then they're going to pull out.



This. You can only deny reality existing for so long until it shows up banging at the door. And if you don't open up the door, it will break a window, get through the chimney or the faucet.




Not when it switches the market pumps into MAXIMUM OVERDRIVE


File: 785eacb1585334f⋯.jpg (92.08 KB, 1280x720, 16:9, tiresome.jpg)


File: a98e1b1e5c6f1eb⋯.png (217.38 KB, 1920x1080, 16:9, ClipboardImage.png)

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File: 804c0a0d2ff7204⋯.png (66.82 KB, 476x306, 14:9, ClipboardImage.png)



I never understood technical analysis, it looks like pseudo-scientific crap to me, like astrology or numerology.



It really is.


File: 65bf3747705b1d3⋯.gif (5.35 KB, 193x194, 193:194, merlin-do-magic.gif)


Astrology is not that bad compared to borgissi finance



are we not on wave 5 up?



File: 79d0910dceaafa9⋯.png (268.14 KB, 1920x1080, 16:9, dow_jones_world_ender.png)



ooof I dunno. I'd like to think wave 5(supercycle) just ended so everything can go to shit as fast as possible but its really not clear



with elliot wave there are 64 possible iterations of waves going into the next swing and you can calculate the probability of which one is most likely with pattern recognition and trends. Your supposed to have a primary, alternate, and alternate alternate "count". Over multiple iterations you have a >50% probability of being correct.

Until we break the high on the S&P and the Dow theres a greater than 50% chance that we are in a downtrend and theres an extreme likelyhood like 80% we will see at least 2150 on the S&P and a greater than 50% chance we will see as low as 1500 which if broken would imply a 50% chance that we will go to triple digits.

These are generalities but you can backtest by checking the ratios in the boom and busts of historical data on the specific to further refine your probabilities to get increasingly more accurate targets.

Even if I'm completely wrong and the 64th least likely permutation is correct, and it breaks the 2940 high, all that means is that we will have an even sharper correction sometime in the future because the contradictions of capitalism necessarily generate boom and bust cycles. I'd like to think that because its so incredibly shit upon by capitalists that subscribe to modern portfolio theory that its probably correct but they are framing it as a crystal ball so the miss the point. It will never tell you exactly whats going to happen.



Thank you.

Just curious, do you work in a finance related field or do you just do technical analysis in your spare time? The idea of a wall street ☭TANKIE☭ is really humorous to me.


File: 69b45664e369236⋯.png (101.29 KB, 993x453, 331:151, a-elliot-fib.png)

File: c9b1252bd5cd7bc⋯.jpg (25.67 KB, 569x398, 569:398, MW-DN103_Comple_2015060117….jpg)

File: 3387750b2049659⋯.png (11.32 KB, 697x728, 697:728, ending-diagonal-aud.png)

File: 637b28dc361d2c2⋯.png (32.55 KB, 721x417, 721:417, endingdiagonaltrading.png)

File: 8de77bbaf24f785⋯.png (250.92 KB, 1920x1080, 16:9, ClipboardImage.png)



I do TA on bitcoin for fun and I started looking at the Dow and S&P bc this thread.


File: bf4e381d27ea727⋯.png (71.78 KB, 726x590, 363:295, wut.png)


>the stock market rises when people buy, drops when people sell

>actions always taken after the fact as new information about the future profits crops up

>"market cycles" and "market analysis" is literally trying to predict the future

>everybody is doing the same, using the same principles, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy


File: 5dc1559688b4b9d⋯.png (43.77 KB, 1493x679, 1493:679, Untitled.png)


stock price reflects material conditions not the other way around. a change in production or inventory always proceeds a change in price thus resulting in news.



File: b9ef9a43a3c91f8⋯.png (1.01 MB, 2047x1052, 2047:1052, ClipboardImage.png)

ignore the second to last one, the date is wrong


Can anyone point me to some books? Or a guide or something? I don't understand any of this and it seems kind of interesting to use all the tools of capitalism as best as I can. At least then I could feel that it isn't assraping me every fucking day I work.



I would recommend you first read all three volumes of Capital so that you can understand how the real economy works before trying to understand fictitious capital (which is what the stock market deals with). After that, you can read "Finance Capital Today" as well as "Fictitious Capital".


File: b5ec4a84d12c02d⋯.png (78.93 KB, 1151x302, 1151:302, 1.png)


Further 6.35 billion dollars buyback coming thru.



if you want to learn how to use the tools as best you can, go to the personalfinance subreddit and do what they say basically:

>Credit card, but use it to improve your credit history and ideally only ever use it if you know you can pay it off;

>Emergency savings account to cover a few months of something bad happening (especially if you are in a place with shit healthcare i.e. USA)

>try to pay off debts as quickly as possible.

>invest in a low cost globally diversified index fund (exploit the workers of the world).

>try and save and invest as best you can but don't eat ramen noodles every day unless that really is all you can afford, and if so then you don't have money to save.

And yeah, reading capital is worth it, but take it slow, and ask in other threads for help if you get stuck/want other reccs. Podcasts and stuff can be good for picking up bits and bobs too.


New Michael Roberts




So wait, MMT LITERALLY IS "Just print more money lmao"???? How has bourgeois economics degenerated this far??? I thought the porkies at least hated taxes and inflation enough to understand that this was bullshit.



There's only one thing porkies hate more than inflation, it's recession. They're desperate and taking desperate measures to keep the appearances of stability. This will cause extreme hyperinflation and unemployment soon.



>As Stephanie Kelton, a leading MMT exponent and adviser to Bernie Sanders, says “The issuer of currency can never run out of money because it can always print or mint more dollars, pesos, rubles, yen, etc.”

holy fuck, I'm at a loss for words. dear lord people need to read Marx.


File: db64d2875c3e19a⋯.png (201.06 KB, 1508x1326, 58:51, Screen Shot 2019-02-05 at ….png)

File: 949daeb825026de⋯.jpg (33.05 KB, 421x480, 421:480, 5bd.jpg)

federal reserve balance sheet updated down 8 billion since jan 23rd 2019 and down <400 billion since January 2018

this update is from jan 30 mind you



Someone please explain this to me. Are the feds doing quantitative easing? Why isn't anyone talking about this outside of taiwanese basket-weaving BBS bulletin boards?



I mean the MMT folks are right that public debt is basically just a measure of the money spent into existence by the government (point also made by Graeber in Debt). The problem is not all of them acknowledge that money represents actual resources, and the value of money is a ratio of the resources to the money supply. Some of them are retards who think you can just print money. Some are saying control of resources is mediated by how money is spent, but most seem to be the retards who hide behind "MMT is complicated and it's ok if you don't understand."



>public debt is basically just a measure of the money spent into existence by the government (point also made by Graeber in Debt).

But fiat money is a representation of labor values, the govt doesn't create labor values when spending or getting into debt. Government debt has to be paid off eventually with taxes.

>The problem is not all of them acknowledge that money represents actual resources, and the value of money is a ratio of the resources to the money supply.

Also wrong, "resources" is vague. A "resource" only enters the economy when labor has been expended transforming it. As well, all existing money does not represent all labor values that exist. There are a lot less existing money labor equivalents than total labor values. The money only exists in circulation and hoards, and since the money circulates, a single unit of it can serve as the medium of exchange for many different exchanges.

I feel like you are on the right track but really need to read Capital.


Since we're talking about debt, here's a fun quote from Vol 1:

"The system of public credit, i.e., of national debts, whose origin we discover in Genoa and Venice as early as the Middle Ages, took possession of Europe generally during the manufacturing period. The colonial system with its maritime trade and commercial wars served as a forcing-house for it. Thus it first took root in Holland. National debts, i.e., the alienation of the state – whether despotic, constitutional or republican – marked with its stamp the capitalistic era. The only part of the so-called national wealth that actually enters into the collective possessions of modern peoples is their national debt. [7] Hence, as a necessary consequence, the modern doctrine that a nation becomes the richer the more deeply it is in debt. Public credit becomes the credo of capital. And with the rise of national debt-making, want of faith in the national debt takes the place of the blasphemy against the Holy Ghost, which may not be forgiven…"

Read the full thing here:



File: feb9da8c76ba176⋯.png (58.5 KB, 1144x222, 572:111, 1.png)


3 billion more


File: e2633e2a521a85f⋯.png (35.08 KB, 541x191, 541:191, 1.png)

File: 5bb3818cdaedd62⋯.png (26.88 KB, 529x159, 529:159, 2.png)

EU and Futures


File: a0514c2b5fdf0b0⋯.jpg (157 KB, 1080x1314, 60:73, Screenshot_20190207-082841….jpg)

Rip duestch bank


File: 66044c19f6f8ef3⋯.jpg (79.24 KB, 942x694, 471:347, dow.jpg)

So according to that bubble popping graph, there would one peak, a dip, another 'return to normal' peak, and then the real drop. the DOW is moving towards a third peak on this graph. Is the first 2018 peak an 'illegitimate peak' due to the tax cuts, and so would that suggest the current month of green is the real 'return to normal' period beginning.



In the comments there was someone suggesting that MMT is primarily ideological, and confronting neoliberal ideology. I’d say that seems fair. MMT isn’t just “print money stupid”, it’s more like the belief that the economy can be directed much more heavily by the public sector and that modest inflation isn’t really so bad.

Basically as far as the MMT people are concerned, the public budget and how the economy is organized between the private and public sector is literally a political issue that has been rendered an economic one (in the vulgar sense). They say that if we want to spend public money on healthcare, pay for everyone’s healthcare. Don’t fear inflation, just do it. If inflation comes, raise taxes. If you want a huge infrastructhre or jobs program like the “Green New Deal”, just pay for it. You are just competing with the private sector over scarce labor. Worst case scenario inflation starts rising with wages, but for MMT that is just an indication you need to raise taxes.

They do also believe that the economy is a lot more flexible than people would suggest, that paying a bunch of laborers such and such to do the Green New Deal will just drastically diminish the unemployed and cause production to shoot up with minimal inflation (because they used to suggest that the productive economy was at something like 70% real capacity).

Ultimately I don’t think MMT sounds very profound to a lot of people on the left, especially now, because it really is like a resurrection of Keynes that pushes a little further. It’s radlib shit. It just makes neoliberal heads implode because MMT doesn’t really fetishize the market, they just think of money as a tool to order people around (plan the economy) and that if inflation happens it just means the public sector is tying up too much labor so either taxes need to be raised in order to diminish people’s spending power, or spending actually needs to be cut until the economy can catch up.



Also, apparently AOC pushes it? I fully support her socdem reformism backed with the arcane magic of MMT specifically because I think it is a possible, necessary dialectical movement for American radlibs to realize the error of their ways. Though it’s possible the timescale just means we get caught in another long political cycle of reformism back into neoliberal austerity, but I anticipate the MMT people fearing a real clash with capital. Sure, they’ll try to tax them at a 70% marginal rate or whatever, they’ll try to inheritance tax the shit out of them, whatever, but wait for the acts of sabotage and political maneuvering by the elites. It’s class war. Using the state to raise wage share of GDP and crunch profits, whatever back road you try to take (like jobs guarantees and big projects) is still class war, and the rich know it. Socdems always run into that problem eventually of thinking they can just democratically and peacefully legislate away the privileges of the rich, but they’d literally rather destroy the ecology of the planet than risk some kind of critical loss of power. We can see their intent right now, they’re refusing to come to an agreement about how to save the fucking oceans from boiling. They’d risk nuclear fucking annihilation to keep the status quo. Radlibs have to learn this lesson eventually. Class war. It’s violence, slow or fast and at some point there will be pushback and you have to go all the way or you really will become vuvuzoola.


File: eddeabe8ca86b4e⋯.png (31.48 KB, 546x192, 91:32, 1.png)

Here we go.


File: 1f9d0d69144ff0b⋯.jpg (279.68 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190207-105721….jpg)



File: 1660ea3e928ecbc⋯.jpg (292.79 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190207-110653….jpg)



File: 963ec5c54e0871f⋯.png (32.82 KB, 542x181, 542:181, 1.png)


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File: 0a5bb5bb71e110e⋯.jpg (304.13 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190207-115015….jpg)



File: 0208b126983dd71⋯.jpg (296 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190207-115332….jpg)



>plunge protection gang barely active since spastic BO banned them

*sticks sign in ground* No anything allowed.


File: 005f99ae343304b⋯.jpg (292.28 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190207-120356….jpg)



File: 0446517acde5f7f⋯.jpg (327.43 KB, 848x507, 848:507, Screenshot_20190207-120527….jpg)

A sea of red



What are these sorts of graphs(?) called? They're really useful for mapping out a nations economy but I can only get my hands on them when someone spoonfeeds me them.


File: 5d1e5321eca1e7f⋯.jpg (54.93 KB, 948x350, 474:175, 5d1e5321eca1e7f392f54cd9cb….jpg)


Dialectic in motion again!



I honestly dont know anon but heres where i got the charts from https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=w1

Hope this helps




>tradingview ideas




Ah yes, instead we should listen to the bab**ns on leftypol. Brilliant



as far as im concerned, the more people trading in hopes of one outcome, the less likely that outcome will occur



Actually leftypol ppl don't pray for infinite exponential growth and only look at financial charts for political/historical purposes so yea



These are called heatmaps


File: 0a53ee8a9e5b54c⋯.jpg (304.9 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190208-000042….jpg)

Fuck yes


File: 049ae008ee3f17c⋯.jpg (279.78 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190208-102632….jpg)



File: dacc5655251e3e6⋯.jpg (291.64 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190208-111550….jpg)




>keynesianism stopped working in the 70s

>lets try it again except this time the banks are even more powerful



what could possibly go wrong?



These neo-Keynesians think that neoliberalism was an ideological movement that took control away from the “rational” Keynesians. Therefore all that needs to be done is restore power to Keynesians. They don’t realize that neoliberalism was simply a response to the falling rate of profit causing the crisis in the 70s. Neoliberalism was brutal, but it did raise the profit rate. Any Keynesian policy implementation now would just lower the rate of profit and cause another crisis. Of course, even if neoliberalism continues, a crisis will still happen, just slightly later. Honestly, the only fucking hope we have is socialism.


File: c50f7ece2fb7bd6⋯.png (52.41 KB, 949x331, 949:331, screenshot-www.marketwatch….png)

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File: e3cacce18e3ce04⋯.gif (240.66 KB, 374x374, 1:1, 968749.gif)

>LeftyTARDS start some shit thread on how about "HTE MAKRET IS GONA CRASH I SWAER".

>One year has passed.

>Nothing has happened.

>LeftyFAGGOTS still believe that, just by memeing and truly believing in themselves like in a shitty chinese cartoon, they will bring along the collapse of modern, western civilization.



>See the market go down by just 0,0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.

<"L-l-l-lmao P-Plunge Protec-ction G-ang BTFO!!!"

Could you just, I don't know… Grow up?

I mean, this IS pretty pathetic, you LeftyNIGGERS need some medical advisement to just go on in life, OH WAIT, I FORGOT, YOUR POOR, YOU CAN'T PAY FOR IT, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!







File: 3b70d9553e22578⋯.jpg (78.82 KB, 716x768, 179:192, Bill_Wilson-0.jpg)


File: d15740b7366d7c8⋯.png (94.26 KB, 1151x579, 1151:579, dow 2008.png)


Where were you in 2008 PPG?


File: 3f3c42bc9552aaa⋯.jpg (35.67 KB, 362x346, 181:173, CjcQBE6.jpg)


Putting in place austerity measures in Europe.

Why you ask?


lol you retards don't understand the first thing about investing

neglect to invest in US equities as your own risk



I don't need to my mommy does it for me



I believe we call this schizophrenia




>when the entire economy is a gigantic network of speculative bubbles waiting to burst


File: 0c97417ac803400⋯.png (23.47 KB, 525x345, 35:23, gold rates.PNG)

Gold rates going higher correlate with less trust in monetary systems & banks.

I actually cashed out a few months ago and bought physical gold, I'll probably be rich once this blows up.


the weekend is so fucking boring

why do they close markets at all in the age of globalism and computers this shit is so dumb


File: d10dd80a7623548⋯.png (21.11 KB, 948x582, 158:97, Dead_cat_bounce_NASDAQ_IXI….png)

File: 76ee39da378b1f0⋯.png (84.92 KB, 686x460, 343:230, 2001337_orig.png)



I read once that the banking industry is basically layers upon layers of outdated technology, with modern ipad stuff laid on top of 80s IBMs on top of 60s vacuum tubes on top of 40s mechanical computers on top of 20s telegraphs and tickertapes, and that basically they've been relying on this technology so long that the costs of upgrading it all would be astronomical. This was years ago though, so who knows what it's like now.



I'm not working at the other fields, but as a IT specialist, I can confirm our technology are outdated as fuck. Modern Linux, TCP/IP are basically 70s era university experimental tech + some hacks, patching to make it scales. Windows is quite modern, but the 90s design become bloated over time, attempt to revise it (Windows 10) only make thing worse, because our IT workers are shit now (the result of half century of education for profit). Intel x86 is a mess, and ARM also become bloated. Lacking of central planning, technology become a frankstein mess of patches and afterthought additions. But capitalists and shareholders don't care, because they don't understand, there is no alternative and most importantly, they still receive their profit.



Replace with what? Drones? Trucks seem pretty reasonable and cost-effective for now.



>the banking industry is basically layers upon layers of outdated technology

yes, this is true. that's why your bank password has such a low character limit.



Just check the listed programming languages when a bank looks for IT specialists.



File: aafbb202b884912⋯.png (301.21 KB, 2004x1222, 1002:611, Screen Shot 2019-02-10 at ….png)

federal reserve balance sheet update down 13 billion since last time


File: 2b118a8fdf64b01⋯.png (71.38 KB, 1159x273, 1159:273, 1.png)


0.6 billion more buybacks


File: 9c6baedb220a3c6⋯.jpg (286.62 KB, 1080x1848, 45:77, Screenshot_20190211-103102….jpg)

Good very good






File: e3cd58a06ac98da⋯.jpg (44.92 KB, 719x713, 719:713, samhydejournalists.jpg)

>Weak hands may signal major market decline, expert warns



File: 690986fefc54aa4⋯.jpg (231.85 KB, 1200x1200, 1:1, doomerfinalform.jpg)


This thread feels a lot like endless ritualism. That makes me happy. I'm insane and deeply spiritual, so i'm going to make a sigil of market crashing and charge it with my own blood. I'm going to fucking do it /leftypol/. You'll get your market crash, i'll make sure of it.


File: 9b35d7e88428224⋯.png (441.32 KB, 720x1280, 9:16, sigilofmarketcrashing.png)



It's avestan text.


File: ecae9175fb90a4b⋯.mp4 (1.01 MB, 640x360, 16:9, auroraborealis.mp4)



I should add that the actual word for "crash" would be "ava-baraiti" which means "to bring down", so i'm probably gonna have to remake my sigil.


File: 0e5fabdcb9bb8a5⋯.png (455.77 KB, 720x720, 1:1, bringitdown.png)


Here it is. Unfortunately, i can't make this one look like a stock market crash like the first one i made.


File: f4e565f02f30def⋯.png (560.52 KB, 666x666, 1:1, 2757-1505961312.png)


Post after the blood based faggot



File: 6605c6ddf88cbcd⋯.gif (19.05 KB, 600x713, 600:713, mevsopponent.gif)


Soon. I just have to find my knife.


File: 20c3f62d8e2c401⋯.jpg (116.83 KB, 617x1050, 617:1050, Welcome-to-the-Desert-of-t….jpg)


>feels like

<muh feels

>endless ritualism

<muh ignorance

Hey, babby. Welcome to /leftypol/, where Marxists take into account the empirically observable facts about capitalism that Marx unearthed.

Capitalism creates cyclical and self-threatening crises not out of or due to some kind of "conspiracy theory," but because how it is systematically built.

Educate yourself on the very basics here:



This is a very good opportunity for you to go beyond your pseudo-intellectual mysticism and learn about systemics.

Overall: this thread is not about "meme magic" (that's a rightist genre). This thread is about the systematically inevitable.

Cheers, edgelord, and Welcome to the Desert of the Real!


File: edb63986344a36f⋯.jpg (2.84 MB, 2448x3264, 3:4, tmp-cam-551968470393069883….jpg)


I'm gonna do it


Kys tbh



Where's your actual response, you pseud?




Keep the insults coming guys, great work!


File: 5b59f84a6197d56⋯.png (11.86 KB, 403x450, 403:450, 5b59f84a6197d5606a465bd238….png)


>still no response



haha you mean COBOL?


File: d20cd8e31b04a00⋯.png (149.68 KB, 1291x2228, 1291:2228, summoning.png)

Sorry guys, i keep getting interrupted and i'm too on edge. Gonna have to wait for a little while until my nerves are good.



Based schizo poster


File: ac2c636a7ea6a40⋯.jpg (59.21 KB, 783x391, 783:391, images-4.jpg)




I've calmed down, but i feel drained. I don't know what's been draining my energy today, but it's not my depression. I'm gonna do it tomorrow faggots.

If anyone wants to participate the sigil is depicted right here >>2812959

Good night anons.



I'm not going to draw a man who is wearing a diaper to summon a succubus.



if you pull this off plunge gang will be absolutely pleased with this shit



god speed ritualistic anon


I legit wonder why this wicca shit continues on to this day, or ever occurred at all. I mean, are people really thinking that drawing some lines is going to summon a demon? Maybe they think that if they "summon" a demon of let's say war, they'll attribute their successes in fighting something to that demon and this believe goes on. If so, it's a pretty weak-minded thing to believe in.



anyone read that George Soros article? There's a real air of desperation in it, just trying to hold on to that liberal utopian dream.



should we help give it power?


File: 7fc8289ff582be6⋯.png (1.04 MB, 1280x712, 160:89, TAKE MY ENERGY.png)


might as well




> "meme magic"

is real


File: cde19635ca26464⋯.png (142.53 KB, 625x773, 625:773, cde19635ca264641a1f08dbf3b….png)







>literally hijacking this Marxist thread towards pseudo-science and anti-materialism

Reported all of you.



Can we have our funposting please?



>Marxist thread

<can we have diarrhea on your thread?




Kill yourself immediately.


File: 017116beb094719⋯.png (31.58 KB, 499x536, 499:536, 017116beb09471960a66090f4d….png)


File: 3ebf00219ef54ed⋯.jpg (112.42 KB, 700x1053, 700:1053, e62f2fc78fb5a75453efa8fddf….jpg)





File: e0ce68b883890f4⋯.png (123.26 KB, 1884x584, 471:146, Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at ….png)

nikkei right now nearly up 300


File: 4e82171bbca093a⋯.jpg (44.7 KB, 254x255, 254:255, 4e82171bbca093ae9eaed1fbe9….jpg)


Proof that fun is bad


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>autistically screeching about microfluctuations in stock markets

>no marxist analysis of economy whatsoever

<Marxist thread

haha this is more like /leftytrash/ with dow jones charts








All the same poster. Don't be a fucking dweeb - schizo-esotericism is the way forward! not really, but stop reporting people because you've got a rod up your ass



Okay, not >>2813155 , my bad




>dow losing 4000 points in two weeks in december

no jon, you're the trash here.



i fucking knew it



>calling out a poster for using his autism to stop thread derailment

Harsh times require harsh measures. The poster deserves a medal. Any more discussion about this "meme magic" stuff will be subsequently deleted by yours truly for thread derailment. Keep that stuff elsewhere, but not here.


File: 00b2039f826be21⋯.png (21.52 KB, 488x463, 488:463, 00b2039f826be21f6c9b38c6d0….png)


>rod up your ass

familiarize yourself with Marxism101, honestly. Lenin wrote thousands of pages about anti-religion; Marx did too, albeit much less.

Ehat you actually wanted to say here was:

>chill, bro, this an' chinese board n' shiet

<hurr, imageboard n' shiet



'''Which brings me to the following:"""

Are we going to tolerate literal psedo-scientific shit for "keks and lols," or are we gonna behave like Marxists (or even, serious anarchists/nihilists), for whom the number one enemy was demagogy and religion, or are we going to pretend that we are a "normal kind of board that tolerates all kinds of opinions for lols?"

Serious question, you worthless idiot.



>Any more discussion about this "meme magic" stuff will be subsequently deleted by yours truly

Agreed, and I retract most of what I've said above.



still, this is something miraculous:





File: df2c565e852184c⋯.jpg (2.59 MB, 2448x3264, 3:4, tmp-cam-469987416217179967.jpg)



I couldn't get much blood. I was sitting on the floor for about half an hour with a knife in my hand at 3:00 A.M. though so i feel satisfied with the results.

As for thread derailment i'm sorry guys i'll leave the thread alone after this post

I did it for plunge gang



holy fuck the absolute madlad


File: 7297c0565df7b28⋯.jpg (192.15 KB, 1200x1200, 1:1, 7297c0565df7b289fbeb73114e….jpg)


Nice desk, did you buy it at Sotheby's?


File: 16113f33921bea7⋯.jpg (13.54 KB, 300x419, 300:419, kinda awesome.jpg)

File: cb79c0397aac123⋯.png (124.35 KB, 1948x580, 487:145, Screen Shot 2019-02-12 at ….png)


well fuck the madlad anon delivered

in other news dow up by 340 points


File: f1545c87588a592⋯.jpg (70.37 KB, 792x468, 22:13, NO BREAKS.jpg)


Good this sacrifice pleases me


File: 9a1e6dd85724c83⋯.jpg (12.59 KB, 352x47, 352:47, AnInterestingDevelopment.jpg)


Did my sacrifice create the final bubble?

Probably not because it would take multiple sacrifices to truly change the dialectic also i didn't lose enough blood

It's hard to type so i'm taking a break from /leftypol/ today



Shit i forgot to take off my baboonposting flag


File: c43fef41b167012⋯.jpg (23.53 KB, 380x368, 95:92, c43.jpg)


shit man i would assume also good shit on actually delivering anon

mfw we call on the powers of hell to destroy capitalism


File: a0ef7245981f545⋯.png (123.42 KB, 1918x580, 959:290, Screen Shot 2019-02-12 at ….png)

dow update




not that surprising if you've been following the auto industry, they were giving out loans like candy

wolfstreet has been following it and reporting on it for over a year now I think

>Serious auto-loan delinquencies – loans that are 90 days or more past due – surged to 4.47% of total auto loan balances in Q4 2018, according to New York Fed data this morning. This put the auto-loan delinquency rate at the highest level since Q1 2012 and just 0.6 percentage points below the peak during the Great Recession in Q1 2011.

>At the end of 2018, there were over 7 million Americans with auto loans that were 90+ days past due, 1 million more than at the end of 2010, at the peak of the overall delinquency rates

>New York Fed: “the substantial and growing number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefitted from the strong labor market.”

>Since the prior peak in Q2 2008, total auto loans and leases outstanding nearly doubled to $1.27 trillion (this is slightly higher than the data reported last week by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as part of its consumer credit data).

>But the number of auto-loan accounts rose only 28% over the decade, from 88 million accounts in Q2 2008 to 113.4 million accounts in Q4 2018, even as the loan balances nearly doubled.

>The share of loans that were current or in early delinquency in Q3 and became seriously delinquent in Q4 ticked up to 2.4% of total auto loan balances.

>But among subprime auto loans, the share of loans that transitioned into serious delinquency rose to over 8% of their balances in Q4, “a development that is surprising during a strong economy and labor market,” the New York Fed added.



File: ec19b25480b17fd⋯.jpg (10.01 KB, 311x162, 311:162, images.jpg)







Also i'm well aware of the difference between corporate, shitty amusement park fun, and making each other giggle like retards, lads


Illinois Explores Ways to Pay Down Pension Debts


>Illinois’s $134 billion of pension-fund debt built up over years as the state, like many others, failed to set aside enough money to cover all the benefits that have been promised. Using more conservative investment return assumptions, Illinois pension shortfall is $250 billion.

>Governor J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat who took office last month, is turning to business experts to figure out how to chip away at the massive debt to the state’s employee retirement system that’s left the government’s credit rating dangling just one step above junk. Among the options it will weigh: How to use the state’s other assets – like buildings and roads — to pump more money into the pensions.

>No state is struggling more with its retirement obligations than Illinois, but the steps it’s exploring aren’t unprecedented. New Jersey handed its lottery system over to its pensions, ensuring that politicians won’t shortchange them as badly as they have in the past, and Connecticut has considered following suit. Arizona sold its capitol to raise cash after the last recession. And former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger proposed selling 11 state office buildings, though the plan was scrapped by his successor.

>The creation of a panel of experts to consider such plans marks an early effort by Pritzker to contend with an issue that eluded his Republican predecessor Bruce Rauner, much of whose term was marred by a clash with the Democrat-led legislature over the budget.

<It’s a very good sign – I think it shows the gravity that they’re viewing the situation with,

>Gabe Diederich, a municipal-bond fund manager for Wells Fargo Asset Management, which oversees $39 billion of state and local debt, including some issued by Illinois.

<Investors would hope for some kind of resolution to minimize future drains on the state’s finances. It’s obviously encouraging to see that they are moving forward with this.

>With a court ruling that benefit cuts are barred by the state constitution, Illinois has no choice but to raise more revenue. New Jersey’s lottery transfer promised an additional $1 billion annually for its retirement system. Connecticut has fielded offers from private equity firms for as much as $2 billion for office buildings, health-care facilities and transit related properties. California’s ill-fated real estate sale would have raised $2.3 billion.

>Pritzker’s task force may consider similar steps, said Michael Belsky, executive director of the Center for Municipal Finance at the University of Chicago. The state, for example, owns the James R. Thompson Center – a 16-story glass building located in the middle of downtown Chicago.

>But such measures would be no panacea, and privatization efforts have frequently generated a political backlash, including in Chicago, where residents were riled by the impact from a sell off its parking meters.

>All of Illinois’s capital assets – like land, buildings, and infrastructure – were worth about $23 billion in 2017, according to its financial statements. And the state lottery fund’s revenue that year was far short of its annual pension bills.


File: 386450495ca3c29⋯.png (163.11 KB, 1600x828, 400:207, Screen Shot 2019-02-12 at ….png)

10-2yr spread atm


File: f4214775c546f3a⋯.png (4.56 KB, 225x225, 1:1, download.png)


This isn't the main point of the article, but that's what they write about suntrust and bb&t merger:

>This merger isn’t born out of froth and exuberance, but pragmatism. Big banks like JPMorgan are spending billions of dollars a year on technology. Smaller banks like SunTrust and BB&T have to spend on technology to stay relevant, but don’t have the budgets that bigger banks do. It stands to reason that a combined entity could spend on technology upgrades more efficiently and effectively than the two banks individually


File: 9dd90fae3e6c9f8⋯.jpg (10.75 KB, 227x223, 227:223, porky.jpg)


>It’s a very good sign – Wells Fargo anticipates being able to obtain maximum capital assets for minimal cost


File: 2b2f89697367a4d⋯.png (365.91 KB, 600x590, 60:59, 2b2f89697367a4db1cb1ae5693….png)

CEOs Ask Trump to Help Them Sell Nuclear Power Plants Overseas


<d-daddy gubbermint please help me!


File: 3ed888158f12c7e⋯.png (21.64 KB, 730x340, 73:34, industrial output.png)

Whoops! Industrial production in the Euro Area slumped 4.2 percent from a year earlier in December 2018, following a downwardly revised 3 percent contraction in the previous month and compared to market expectations of 3.2 percent drop. It was the steepest decline in industrial production since November 2009 as output fell for all categories. Among Eurozone's largest economies, Spain posted the largest decrease, followed by Italy, Germany and France.



>Collapse in industrial output in the ru along with recccesions popping up




i mean the eu whoops



n i c e



Oh, so exactly what is happening to Turkey and Argentina.


File: bd5bde8ca7630a3⋯.png (72.41 KB, 500x500, 1:1, f5c639627ed8c32d61498aef23….png)


>Spain posted the largest decrease




Between 1936-1939 all good people died. What is left is a bunch of scum.


China’s Mountain Of Debt Is About To Crumble

>I wasn’t aware that cross-company guarantees were common in China. This is alarming for two reasons. First, it is presumably explicitly to allow the borrower to take on more debt than warranted given his financial condition, so it allows for widespread high levels of leverage. Second, it is just about certain that guarantors don’t disclose how much in the way of guarantees they have made, which means any assessment of their credit-worthiness as a borrow or guarantor is likely to be too generous. Third, cross guarantees create contagion. When one company fails, its guarantors are expected to pay up. They may fail or delay payments to suppliers and other creditors, increasing stress.

>Financial deleveraging was a key goal of President Xi Jinping’s 2015 supply-side structural reform plan. The campaign was meant to curb growing risks in the country’s overheating financial markets mainly through tighter asset management and clamping down on shadow financing.

>A couple of years down the line, hordes of private Chinese firms have been folding up as they struggle to raise new funds to repay old debts let alone survive. Corporate debt defaults tripled in 2018

>Yet, another unexpected problem has surfaced: many companies that guaranteed other ’s loans are unable to honor their obligations. This contagion risk in a web of cross-guarantee system is the last thing that the country needs even as the government calls on state banks to boost lending to the private sector. The warning bells have already sounded in the once-prosperous city of Dongying, a famous oil refinery and industrial hub

>According to Reuters, no less than 28 firms in the city are now seeking to avoid bankruptcy by restructuring their debts as the loans they guaranteed for other firms turn soar. Among the 28 include iconic names such as Shandong Jinmao Textile Chemical Group and Shandong Dahai Group, both of which featured in the list of China’s top 500 best-run private enterprises for 2018.

>How bad is the cross-guarantee problem? Probably worse than you would imagine. Shandong Dahai Group has guaranteed debt for 14 companies adding up to 2.67 billion yuan ($394 million) or nearly half of its total assets. Of the 14, 6 have already run into financial or legal trouble while two have been blacklisted by the courts as ‘dishonest debtors’ due to their abysmal creditworthiness.

>Meanwhile, the resource-rich Dongying area has seen two prominent banks– Guangrao Rural Commercial Bank and Dongying Bank – hit by a sudden surge of non-performing loans that threaten their very survival. More than 95 percent of Guangrao Rural’s bad loans were backed guarantors who themselves were heavily indebted.



File: ff497d314c34229⋯.jpg (923.53 KB, 540x720, 3:4, JazzGoes.jpg)



China's about to collapse!

Any minute now!

Next year!

Next decade!

I promise you it'll happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I'll believe it when I see it, they've been saying this for almost 30 years now.



China on its deathbed. Collapse right behind the corner


File: 140d47976a00176⋯.jpg (11.37 KB, 228x223, 228:223, porky.jpg)

For the biggest group of American workers, wages aren’t just flat. They’re falling.

>For workers in “production and nonsupervisory” positions, the value of the average paycheck has declined in the past year. For those workers, average “real wages” — a measure of pay that takes inflation into account — fell from $22.62 in May 2017 to $22.59 in May 2018

>This pool of workers includes those in manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as all “nonsupervisory” workers in service industries such health care or fast food. The group accounts for about four-fifths of the privately employed workers in America, according to BLS.

>Without adjusting for inflation, these “nonsupervisory” workers saw their average hourly earnings jump 2.8 percent from last year. But that was not enough to keep pace with the 2.9 percent increase in inflation

>Stephen Moore, a conservative economist at the Heritage Foundation and campaign adviser to President Trump, said the figures were troubling. But he added that the drop in real wages could be a reflection of the economy adding low-end jobs, rather than declining values further up the chain. If so, he said, that would be a sign of economic vitality, as the economy pulled in unemployed workers.

>falling wages

>sign of economic vitality

>heritage foundation




Jack Rasmus was saying something similar months ago:


>Contrary to media ‘spin’, business press misrepresentations, and US government agencies’ ‘statistical legerdemain’, real wages for the vast majority of the US labor force—especially the 133 million core US working class— are not even close to rising in the US under Trump. Nor did they under Obama, Bush, or Clinton. Since 1980 and the advent of neoliberal capitalist restructuring of the US and global economy, a key element of neoliberal policies has been to compress wages—for all but the roughly 10% that US Capital considers essential to its further expansion and for, of course, the salaries of executives and managers. The rest of the US workforce has undergone constant wage stagnation and decline over the long term. The pace has accelerated or abated at different times, but the long term direction of decline and stagnation has not.

>When wage change is not limited to considering only permanent, full time employees or averaged out, when conveniently excluded categories of workers are considered, when wages are adjusted for true inflation rates, when interest and debt effects are accounted for, and when ‘deferred’ and ‘social’ wage payments are factored into wage totals in general—it is overwhelmingly the case that US wages have been declining for some time and that decline continues in 2018 despite the media-government spin that wages are rising in America.





File: ca8d062b8e49a0e⋯.png (61.22 KB, 1150x233, 1150:233, 1.png)


17.5 billion buyback coming thru!





How does this relate to the Vuvuzelan situation?



Disregard, I'm retarded



They better renationalize their shit.



>The party system of individual states reflects the divisions that mattered in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, such as the conflict between capital and labor. But the cleavage that matters most today is between pro- and anti-European forces.



File: 3da62fbcbc57b6b⋯.jpg (154.16 KB, 653x635, 653:635, 1418909351520.jpg)

It'll collapse at any MOMENT! I say as I retreat back into my Hearts of Irons 4 walkthrough. Steamrolling the Germans while I dream of some fantasy when the proles aren't total cuckolds.


File: e93ea70efd0ae40⋯.png (21.35 KB, 865x250, 173:50, Capture.PNG)



File: b149ad433db83f5⋯.png (1.25 MB, 792x1185, 264:395, tumblr_ogsjz7P8QI1vivde4o1….png)


My man trying to boujee-fy Mao's theory of principle contradiction lmao


File: 18a1c1031c72142⋯.png (129.74 KB, 1936x550, 88:25, Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at ….png)



File: 319471a085df3db⋯.png (124.33 KB, 1918x562, 959:281, Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at ….png)

china is slipping



<CCP coffers run empty

This'll be a fucking disaster for everyone involved, including the imperialist nationd


File: 14d7d456f7cb362⋯.png (121.19 KB, 1920x560, 24:7, Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at ….png)


holy shit


File: d7384f37959959e⋯.png (121.21 KB, 1908x556, 477:139, Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at ….png)




File: 2ed80abd1009448⋯.png (122.02 KB, 1948x554, 974:277, Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at ….png)



File: 91245b8b618bc5e⋯.png (128.66 KB, 1914x552, 319:92, Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at ….png)




File: 8cd42287744ea6c⋯.png (23.51 KB, 855x254, 855:254, Capture.PNG)


even more fire


File: 01feefb2215f4ff⋯.jpg (58.75 KB, 648x537, 216:179, goatse-100.jpg)



File: ea9467b84831d28⋯.jpg (19.71 KB, 500x313, 500:313, COME ON NOW SON.jpg)




The market never reacts to political news. It reacts to trade related news, the release of economic data corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve.

Trump can be shot tomorrow and the market will be up on Monday. There could be a massacre of congressional democrats by armed MAGA hats and the market will be up. America could declare war on both Venezuela and Iran and the market would be up.



>market never reacts to political news

Except when communists get elected.



The market will price in the communists getting elected weeks in advance unless it's a massive upset and on the day of their election the market will be up.



The default assumption is that political shit and political parites are a P.T Barnum tier dog and pony show that mean nothing. If actual Bolshevik tier Communists are getting elected that means shit has already collapsed at that point. If fake and gay muh healthcare government gib socialists are getting elected in the current socio-economic-geopolitical environment then it doesn't fucking matter. The mexican leftist dude got elected and the Mexican stock market rose and didn't give a fuck on the day of his election, it's far more interested in trade shit and Nafta shit. Bernie Sanders or Corbyn can be elected and the stock market won't give a fuck at all.


Well, ya pumped the market back up to 26k. Now what's the next step of your master plan?



Except for trump getting shot, these would all be great news for the market




dow crashing thread the anime

a cruel investors thesis


Global growth is set to slow sharply in 2019. This is because business investment growth, already weak in the Long Depression, is going to drop off further. In turn, that investment slowdown is driven by low profitability in most economies and in most sectors. Only the huge tech companies in the US have bucked this trend, helped by a recent profits bonanza from the Trump tax ‘reforms’. But as the effect of those handouts wear off this year, tech profits may also head downwards – even if the US and China reach a trade deal.






File: d861e1d3cdadd51⋯.jpeg (18.2 KB, 225x225, 1:1, images (1).jpeg)







In what way do the effects of the tax handouts wear off? are US taxes going up again?





File: 9acffa67b681dde⋯.png (30.94 KB, 543x189, 181:63, 1.png)

EU start.


File: e754f067b6acc4c⋯.jpg (33.28 KB, 413x569, 413:569, e75.jpg)


File: 7b3bb554251933a⋯.png (318.58 KB, 583x702, 583:702, af5ad6a224137bc689d165d55f….png)

Get comfy boys.

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