/politics/ - News & Politics

>We know the economy will eventually collapse

In short term or long term?

In the short term the US economy is unlikely to collapse fully, although recession sometime soon is liekly.

However in the long term the US has had slowing GDP growth since the mid 60s.

In the 2 decades after WW2 the 10 or 20 Year rolling average for GDP was ~$4% , now its around 2%. The US i still getting bailed out by its world reserve currency status , and that's unlikely to change soon , since most other competing currencies trying to displace the US dollar , coming from Russia/China , and really no one would trust a reserve currency coming out of there due to the corrpution , especially when the US dollar still looks stable.

The US , as bad as things are is still huge economically and has "least shit" status, in terms of economics. So the US can technically afford to coast until some country with potential gets it shit together and overtakes us , as we slowly stagnate and decline.

>What will happen next? The union will break? Pentagon will pull a coup? The government will become more authoritarian?

As it stands right now the Union is unlikely to break , it would have to degrade much further for separatism to become really viable , short of some massive geopolitical event say the US loses a world war and where breaking away from federal power is viable in the next few years.

In terms of more domestic shit , the govt can really only whittle away certain freedoms slowly and even then that isn't guaranteed. The military/feds trying to fight its own citizenry would be a nightmare for them considering there are 112 million gun owners and Nealy as many guns as there are people. Not to mention that we have the national gaurd for each of the states , some states have a state milliary , and about half of fedearl soldiers are oath keepers.

tl;dr

Were most likely going to coast on our laurels and slowly decline , rather than have this rapid crash and disintegration.

>>4454

Long term, maybe 2-3 decades.

>>4457

Given current trends in the coming 2 decades US gdp growth will be even slower , expect it to be under 2% , like a many of those oh so economically "progressive" yuropoor countries.

This will be caused by an increase of anti-business polices and current taxation rates.

Although there is a new manufacturing belt that has started to spring up in the southeast.

The reserve currency status still may be able to bail the US out through such a time period , provided all other countries with large economies comparable to the US are still more corrupt than we are , at least in part.

Although the US still has to deal with the increasing entitlement spending , this is probably the biggest thing that can bring the US down domestically. At the moment state , local , and federal governments spend roughly about 25% of GDP on entitlements , ~4.5 trillion annual , expect this to grow even more as time goes on as the dems bring in more spics to to vote in more government and boomers want to collect all the goodies they voted in back in the 60s at the rate commensurate to the GDP growth at the time.

>>4458

China and other competing economies are going to fizzle due to demographic problems.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/05/chinas-population-poised-to-crash-in.html

>>4467

This too.

Despite China being huge a lot of it is smoke and mirrors , not to mention that government meddling still fucks shit up from time to time , despite a larger trend towards a freer market.

They have to lie and inflate their GDP figures , for example the all those ghost towns out in Mongolia.

They can only keep their labor artificially low through by having a (mostly) fixed excahnge rate.

Their central bank inflated there stock prices,by lowering interest rates , until we saw the the price re-correction by means of a stock market "crash".

China is not run by a bunch of far sighted technocrats , there likely just as inept as the US is and are definitely far more corrupt.

This also goes for Russia as well as the country is horrendously corrupt , starting a business there is a nightmare.

So its no wonder that Russia averages 1% GDP growth.

Problems with entitlement spending plague the West/Central European countries , not to mention that few of them even have comparable long term GDP growth to the US.

Add on the inundation of the 3rd world and it just gets compounded further.

Centra/South America is still corrupt and shit, especially Brazil even before the gommies got a hold of it.

Nigeria might come out fairly powerful economically by mid century , but they have their own host of problems

The US is on the road to stagnation , but not even our best conception is that good or will remain that good.

The US is most liekly going to be on a steady decline , baring some massive geopolitical happening , but at a slower rate than most other countries.

>what is the future of the US

Trump

My expectations are less civil liberties being enacted e.g CISA, as a very large number of Senators voted in favor of it- for it's the desperation of the common people that allows such to be passed.

The anti-corruption movement is small for the time being and hopefully growing, and maybe will stymy the trend. Snowden's leaks have inspired my peers (mind, that I'm usually hanging around in STEM department, the sort that are willing to move off Windows to Linux) while there's still the "I got nothing to hide" apathetics still.

However it really depends on who becomes president, or if people will allow things to continue as is.

I'm not sure if the union will break. A lot of people have moved between states, and I figure the sentiment of state first, union second isn't there- or at least, I've not heard of it in Southern California. Perhaps the sentiment exists in the South, which they have seceded before, and the Confederate flag being labeled as is (and incorrectly), is unappealing.

>>4448

>The union will break?

Highly unlikely, as much shit gets thrown around, there's not enough regionalism or even cultural differences besides the conservative/liberal break to start that. And even if such an even did happen, the nation would reform territoriality within a generation or two(disregarding major demographic changes).

>Future

Slowing economic growth, similar to Europe. We'll remain the dominant world power for the foreseeable future, no one else has the potential to knock us off the pedestal, China/Russia/India all have far too many issues to even think about it.

It's basically going to be the slow stagnation

>>4520

>exists in the South

As someone who's lived in the South, the talk of secession is joke. Southern "Culture" is also somewhat of a joke, it's been utterly commercialized and broken down, especially as the new generation z rises.

>>4520

The problem is that the anti-corruption movement is largely led by polarizing people like Cenk Uygur. I do agree that legal corruption is THE problem with this country at the moment, whether it's state legislatures gerrymandering to make elections less competitive, or special interests literally buying Congressmen through campaign financing. So much shit would get done if it wasn't for politicians trying so hard to enforce the status quo.

To give a good example of the "economic slowdown", adults living with their parents are making a remarkable comeback. Basically no one is moving out, and no one is buying houses

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-27/why-are-half-all-25-year-olds-still-living-their-parents-federal-reserve-answers

>>4772

Not an American. I always hated this aspect in American culture. Letting your parents rot by themselves after you turn 18. Yes you should have a job, be independent and get married, but to leave them die alone? There should be some room ofcourse, maybe a bigger house or adjacent houses.

>>4777

That's a relatively new phenomenon that didn't pop up until the boomers came into power. But there's a big difference in abandoning your parents and being forced to live with them in the prime of your life due to economic conditions that are mostly outside of your control.

But I understand what you're getting at.

>>4827

>Maybe some space shit or something

unlikely within our lifetimes, resources aren't nearly so depleted or expensive that we need to look offworld for them, nor is there the political motive from government to push for such an endeavor

>>4772

Which isnt a fuckin bad thing if people don't get into student debt

>>4854

I know it's pretty far fetched, I'm just hoping for some sort of breakthrough in propulsion technology or some new economic incentive to get things going.

>>4866

look up skylon.

The prototypes are in development today, the engine concept has been proven sound in actual tests, and it will cut costs to orbit by 90%

>>4867

we've been trying to make SABREs for a while , its a fairly tall challenge from an engineering perspective.

>>4867

That's really neat, I hope it pans out.

US Planetary Empire when?

>>4772

>zero hedge

come on seriously? the same website that claims that cars are hoarded by manufacturers to drive up prices and that cars not sold by the end of the model year are scrapped and made back into new cars?

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:5llesCA-UtAJ:www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

>>4874

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2015/october/millennials-living-home-student-debt-housing-labor?&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SM&utm_term=communities&utm_content=oteblog&utm_campaign=5124

Here's the source data

>>4777

Thats not really it. People don't choose to go out on our own its usually our parents dumping us out on the street. Our whole culture is very anti-child during the last 40 years.

>>4777

I come from a very traditional family life style. The purpose of moving out is to go out into the world and thrive on your own. Culturally Americans consider relying on your parents for living arrangements to be childish and a sign of weakness or unreliability. It also shows that you don't have any ambition to create your own success. Americans are much more impressed by struggle than by people being economically smart. At least for me, I know I'm going to be living my dad for a long time because I absolutely staggering student debt that I'm going to be dumping salaries on once I get away from this night position.

>>4903

> The purpose of moving out is to go out into the world and thrive on your own. Culturally Americans consider relying on your parents for living arrangements to be childish and a sign of weakness or unreliability. It also shows that you don't have any ambition to create your own success

I agree, I just think it shouldn't be permanent. Maybe move out for 5-10 years, build your own life, then invite your parents to move back in, or live near by.

>>4919

>live near by.

thats usually what happens isn't it?

>The USD will lose its status as reserve currency. >Trillions of dollars fly back to US.

>HYPER MASSIVE Inflation like nothing seen before

>new reserve currency rises, possibly gold backed

>jews are unaffected by any of this shit because they don't store their fortune in the worthless USD. They also own huge amounts of gold

>US become 99% controlled by kikes. Israel might aswell annex it.

>>5021

>thats usually what happens isn't it?

not anymore, as jobs have become scarcer, people are moving farther and farther away

>>5068

it's sad, even women put their jobs before their families

>>4777

This. I live with my parents and grandparents on one side. We're a family, we help each other. The "moving out" thing was the original sin against family values in America. But I guess that's what you get when you're a nation of large part rebel kids who moved out of Europe and abandoned their families in favour of "better life".

>>5099

> I live with my parents and grandparents on one side. We're a family, we help each other

Nice. What state? Are you married? Do you have a job?

>>5118

Eastern Europe. Not married yet, I have a job though.

>>4467

I've always thought it strange that China doesn't try and poach its citizens back.

Similar to Nazi Germany calling on all true Aryans to return to build/defend the nation.

There must be several million Chinese citizens all over the globe, lots of women too.

If China could encourage these citizens to return, it would help with their demographic problem.

>>4448

Probably splinter into ethnic and regional republics (hopefully)

>>4569

>Highly unlikely, as much shit gets thrown around, there's not enough regionalism or even cultural differences besides the conservative/liberal break to start that. And even if such an even did happen, the nation would reform territoriality within a generation or two(disregarding major demographic changes).

There can always be a race war, whites and blacks in Dixie forming their own states.

>>4777

You don't leave them to die alone. You you prefer to move out when young t have some time (years) to yoruself. When they get old and whatnot, you let them move in with you if you want/if THEY want (they lose autonomy too)

>>4866

There's REALLY preliminary shit into warp drive (look up alcubierre drive and EM drive)

>>4903

> Americans are much more impressed by struggle than by people being economically smart

LOL, that makes people from US seem stupid when you phrase it like that XD

>>4919

assuming you move out at mid 20s, you're out for like 20-30 years. Also honestly, there is a LOT of things which have to be dealt with before you move back in with your parents. changes in habits and whatnot, as you've been out for decades and don't have to worry abotu definitions of 'cleanliness'

>>5325

China benefits more from millions of people in other countries, for their social/business/cultural/etc connections with the people in the countries. it provides a cultural exchange basically (i.e. Chinese food -> higher opinion of Chinese in the US).

It also provides a nice excuse for China to intervene in South Asia, the ethnic chinese there.

Balkanization will never happen. There's far too much weaponry in the military's hands and way too much surveillance here to ever let that happen. The nation will just become a shadow of what it was, with politicians staying corrupt and the quality of life plummeting generation after generation.

>>5325

there can be benefits for China to having Chinese everywhere. Look at Australia

>>5520

>military's hands and way too much surveillance here to ever let that happen

>implying

>>5528

>cities

>successfully seceding

>when they're full of welfare dependents with no guns

>all stacked up on one another with giant "NUKE ME" signs

Sorry, all I see if the cities attempt to impose their will is a John Titor style war in which the subrubs and exurbs walk in with shotguns the residents are not allowed to own and kill off half of them.

>>5528

>California will likely try to secede and/or you'll have massive riots in the liberal cities

>>5528

I think Texas is a lot of bluster and the South is too full of Northerners to have enough of a will to secede. I think Indiana and a lot of the Plains and Rockies would probably side with the South or do their own thing, but I can't see a scenario where the latte-sipping cucks in California would do a goddamn thing. Where would they get their guns from? The cholo bangers in South Central? They'd sooner become a cartel-ran shithole than ever be independent.

>>5538

>They'd sooner become a cartel-ran shithole than ever be independent.

Califag here, you believe they're not already?

The fucking commissioner of my previous county had an RT writeup because she made more than fucking Obama while the whole county went up in flames!

>>5528

>>5356

open secession is far less likely than a unspoken secession where states begins to simply ignore some federal laws. Similar to how Rome fell, with the various outer states in Gaul simply ignoring Imperial edicts.

But that's far in the future if it happens