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File: 1440176728606.jpg (67.3 KB, 826x570, 413:285, USMap.jpg)

67c8c4 No.16239

So since we can't really have these threads on /pol/ anymore due to "defeatism" and "muh Trump", I figured it'd be more constructive to have a discussion on it here.

We, in the US, have a major problem when it comes to demographics and voting. Specifically in terms of electoral college votes, the Democrats(who are more multicultural) have a significant advantage over the Republicans. Roughly 250-257 electoral votes will be Democrats in a given election from their solid blue states. The Republicans in contrast only have a solid 149 electoral votes accounted for. So right out of the gate we can see the disparity between the two.

http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/#28114101=0

67c8c4 No.16240

Building off this, It's a general truth that the Republican party is the party of white voters in many ways. However, they don't have all the white voters by a long shot, and this represents a major problem for them. For example in 2012 the R-D white vote was split 59%-39% nationally. So the Democrats still have a significant white base to draw, and mind you Obama wasn't at the height of popularity in 2012, so white turnout for the democrats could be higher(I personally think that's unlikely however). Roughly speaking the Republicans need to get into the high 60%(65-68%) to win the electoral college. But as before, this present several major problems for them, based off how moderates have tended to view the Republican party due social views shifting leftwards, and the Republicans doubling down on their voting base.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/08/04/how-many-more-white-votes-did-mitt-romney-need-to-get-elected-in-2012-a-lot/


67c8c4 No.16241

File: 1440178127651.jpg (10.54 KB, 250x201, 250:201, Detroit1950.jpg)

Demographically speaking, we're in far more a pickle than many even on /pol/ would like to admit. Roughly speaking, non-hispanic whites account for 62% of the population, however that number doesn't account for illegal immigrants nor does it account that non-hispanic white =/ european-american. When these two factors are brought into the equation, our percentage of the population falls into the 50% range. The good news regarding this matter is that whites are still the group that tends to vote the most, but whites don't vote as an ethnicity even if they do favor the Republicans. As mentioned above, we need roughly 65%+ of the white vote to win the electoral college, frankly I can't see the Republican party doing that anytime soon. They have a problem with a disconnect between the moderate portion of the population you need for a national win and their base which is far more right wing. So when election season rolls around they have to either flip flop on views or pick a candidate that either moderates or their base can't rally behind. I fear that Trump is a candidate like this, if the party doesn't block him entirely(I think that they will, rather than let him in). If the Democrats can figure out how to mobilize their hispanic voters, the Republicans are going to have some major problems, especially in states where they could turn solid Reds into purples.

Politically speaking we're up against a rock and a hard place, especially considering that Republicans are not really a good solution for the long haul considering their current status on immigration and minority populations. This also doesn't account for outside elements trying to manipulate or rig the elections.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/how-google-could-rig-the-2016-election-121548.html#.Vddfk5fgxYM




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