Protests in Lebanon

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Protests in Lebanon Anonymous 08/24/15 (Mon) 01:17:53 000000 No.16307

No one on /pol/ has even noticed this, and there's relatively little media coverage as well, which makes me think this is the real main event.

Lebanon Minister Warns of Rating Downgrade Amid Stalemate

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/lebanon-premier-warns-of-economic-collapse-amid-political-crisis

>Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam said the government may be unable to pay wages next month, as protesters clashed with police for a second day over the cabinet’s inability to resolve a crisis over garbage disposal.

Lebanon PM Threatens to Resign as Garbage Protesters Rally in Beirut

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/lebanon-pm-threatens-resign-protesters-rally-beirut-n414461

>Protests against the Lebanese government turned violent for a second day on Sunday, and Prime Minister Tammam Salam threatened to resign as public discontent brought thousands into the streets.

Lebanon PM reaches out to critics as trash crisis grows

https://news.yahoo.com/lebanon-prime-minister-extends-hand-beirut-trash-protesters-105606920.html

>Lebanon's prime minister reached out to government critics over the country's growing trash crisis Sunday, as protesters gathered again following a night of clashes with police.

Clashes Break Out During Protests Over Trash Crisis in Lebanon

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/24/world/middleeast/lebanese-protest-as-trash-piles-up-in-beirut.html

>Thousands of protesters streamed into downtown Beirut for a second day on Sunday to demand that the government resign over its inability to remove enormous heaps of garbage from the city’s streets. The demonstrations led to clashes with the police, who turned fire hoses and tear gas guns on the crowds.

Army deployed to Beirut after anti-government anger boils over

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/23/asia/beirut-lebanon-garbage-clashes/index.html

>Lebanese army units were deployed Sunday in central Beirut following violent street protests over garbage going uncollected, said Col. Joseph Moussalem, spokesman for the Lebanese Security Forces.

Lebanon on brink of chaos

https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/Aug-24/312476-lebanon-on-brink-of-chaos.ashx

Guess which state previously occupied South Lebanon, is presently attempting to re-assert itself there, and has a score to settle with the local (overextended) state-within-a-state?

An Overstretched Hezbollah Facing an Israeli Preemptive Strike?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shahir-shahidsaless/an-overstretched-hezbolla_b_7605658.html

>Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah says his group is currently involved in an "existential battle" against insurgents inside Syria. While reports maintain that Hezbollah is currently winning the decisive battle in Qalamoun, on the Lebanese eastern border, analysts believe they are showing signs of being stretched thin. This situation can only worsen, as the group plans to expand and intensify its operations deep inside Syria, from the Lebanon-Syria border as far as Aleppo.

The third Lebanon war scenario

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/The-third-Lebanon-war-scenario-406193

>AFTER EIGHT years of relative quiet on the Lebanese front, there is growing concern in Israel over possibility of a renewed outbreak of fighting with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militia.

Israel expanding 'borders' into south Lebanon

http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/politics/2015/6/28/israel-expanding-borders-into-south-lebanon

>On the eighth of June, an Israeli Army force constructed roads and installed barbed wire on the Sadana mountain heights, on the border area between Lebanon and occupied Palestine.

Israel fires 12 flare bombs over south Lebanon

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/Aug-15/311258-israel-fires-12-flare-bombs-over-south-lebanon.ashx

And if you think it's just Israeli bluster

Hezbollah 3.0: How Israel's No. 1 enemy is preparing for the next Lebanon war

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4683471,00.html

>While Israeli intelligence officials believe the Shiite organization is experiencing the most difficult phase in its history after losing some 1,300 fighters in the Syrian battlefields, its leader Nasrallah is only intensifying preparations for the next conflict with Israel. At the same time, Hezbollah has made extraordinary efforts to show moderation at home and align itself with the international anti-ISIS coalition.

If you want a detailed analysis of how the last one went

How Hezbollah Defeated Israel

http://www.conflictsforum.org/2006/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel/

http://www.conflictsforum.org/2006/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-2/

http://www.conflictsforum.org/2006/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-3/

Anonymous 08/24/15 (Mon) 02:15:25 18d4ac No.16308

>>16307

Lebanon needs drastic steps to avoid bankruptcy

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/lebanon-public-debt-bankruptcy-threat.html

>By the end of January, Lebanon’s public debt had reached $64 billion and its debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 163.1%.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/lebanon/external-debt

Looks like another Argentina

Anonymous 08/24/15 (Mon) 03:04:51 73a8d3 No.16310

This would actually be the perfect time to hit Hezbollah given how tied up they are in Syria. Say what you want about Israel, but they certainly know how to set up the chess board to their advantage

Anonymous 08/24/15 (Mon) 04:26:17 000000 No.16312

>>16310

I don't think it's as simple as merely "hitting" Hezbollah - Israel wants to annihilate them. Doing so will simultaneously secure the northern border, strain Assad to breaking point, degrade Iran's ability to project power, and will be revenge for the defeat in 2006.

Destabilizing Lebanon (note the references to violent agent provocateurs in the reports) could lead to one of three possible outcomes: (1) The replacing of the current semi-functioning government with a more Israel-friendly one, which would try to marginalize Hezbollah and purge state institutions of them, like Hamas and Abbas (this could itself lead to civil war between Hezbollah and a purged army). (2) civil war, assuming a total breakdown of government, subsequent jockeying for power and the exploitation of sectarian tensions created by Hezbollah intervention in Syria, IS and other Sunni groups attempting to muscle their way in, and the refugee situation. (3) An ambiguously pro-Hezbollah military coup, made possible by the Lebanese army becoming more and more Shi'ite and (according to Yedioth Ahronoth) the army having become pro-Hezbollah.

I'm not in any way qualified to prognosticate, but, assuming they're all plausible, two of those three scenarios force Hezbollah to fight on a second front; so what happens when Israel opens the third?