/biz/ - Business and Finance

But I did answer it. When the world starts new, gold backed, currencies the end will be near. Wars will wage. Death will be everywhere…

> Phew…getting myself all hot and bothered just thinking about it!

>>629

There's a jobs report coming out tomorrow (fri 8/7) that should be the last bit of info released before the Sept 16-17th fed meeting. If its like the adp payroll numbers earlier this week it should be below estimates, but still holding unemployment steady at 5.3%.

The fed ought to be raising the intrest rate in September, all the data lines up. The markets are already rattled though, Exxon and chevron dropped around 3% this week. Disney apple and Tesla are all down about 12%. If the markets get hit by intrest rates, I could see them smashing right through support levels on the way down.

>>635

Yeah, there's no doubt the credibility of the $USD is only becoming more suspect with time, it's just a question of whether that credibility has truly been drawn to its fullest extent. Seven years of near-zero interest rate is a tell if anything else. What else can these guys do to keep the USD as the reserve currency? What I'd like to know is, what's likely to happen if they just sit and do nothing at all? Would that leave the global economy in complete limbo until the first major player takes a move? I suspect the Fed's bluffing about interest rates and will do nothing whatsoever, let it play out so they can't catch any blame. Who knows, it's very interesting..

But anyway simply looking at something like the S&P is enough to know things aren't right. It's catching some mad hangtime right now, we haven't been seeing the same growth in 2015 as we have the past few years. Markets hate this kind of uncertainty. The youtube video I attached is a decent discussion on this, the one guy makes a good point, the market will have to revert through the mean (on a chart), else it doesn't really have relevance as a market at all. You cannot have a sustainable economy when things are constantly going up all the time; we've only seen an increasing wealth gap during this massive runup. The prosperity of a nation's citizens requires its markets to trend around some form of equilibrium, and it doesn't look like we've had that at all since 2000, unless you count the two major crashes we've experienced. The third is only a matter of time.

I mean it's just plain retarded, the debt of a country is supposed to be backed by its taxpayers, but if the taxpayers wealth is constantly being depreciated through massive money creation.. like fuck man. There's just no way.

What's a good financial institution to hold pure cash with? I'd want to do that and just wait and see what happens. If by some ungodly miracle the Fed or whoever pulls something out their ass and the $USD retains its hold for several more years I can just jump right back in. If shtf this/next year I'll be ready to buy at bargain prices.

>>640

Whether or not they move the intrest rate or not I figure it should be easy enough to make some dosh off it this September, I'm gonna buy either call options or just outright buy shares of VIX or one its trackers like UVXY all of which are sitting almost at record lows at the end of August. Ill sell them early the week of the 14th when people are buying it for insurance of a rate increase causing a market drop. Then on the 17th when they annouce a rate increase or not I'm buying either a call or put on SPY based on no increase or rate hike respectively as the market will definately move the direction it starts in for the remainder of the day.

Should be able to double up my retirement fund in a few weeks I figure.

>>643

I need to get familiar with derivatives and other trading vessels..

hope you make mad gains man. Thanks for posting your strategy. I'm learning a little every day how to profit off this.. stuff.. not yet ready to jump in.

Do you think a money market account with a prominent brokerage will be a safe place to park cash? The biggest problem I'm having isn't so much making money trading, but knowing how to retain my wealth for the long run. Where do you store your savings, if you don't mind me asking?

>>664

If you're looking for a safe place for saving, hope for.a couple interest rate increases. Then park it in a CD. When I was a kid my folks set up a 5 year CD for me that was pulling something like 7% I think. Regular savings accounts were pulling in 5%ish.

That's a big reason stocks are inflated now I think, things like CDs or savings accounts don't even outpace inflation with the near zero intrest we have now. If they raise the intrest rates I'm pretty sure lots of people, especially older folks getting close to retirement are gonna pull out of the stock market and take a guaranteed 2% over risking their retirement fund in stocks trying to get 5%.

Until rates go up I guess you could buy short term treasury bonds, they don't pay shit worth of interest right now but uncle sam will cough up the cash for them when they come due.I hope, otherwise we're all probably screwed

>>665

honestly i really doubt the fed will increase rates. i don't know enough to make a more accurate prediction but from what i understand they really backed themselves into a corner with QE; they can't lower rates because that'll further destroy faith that the USD is strong enough to be the #1 currency, they can't raise it because that'll put pressure on the economy which it frankly can't take. So I'm guessing they're just going to bluff their asses off until the world wakes up to what the real situation is, which is all fiat currencies are suspect.

This devaluation on the Yuan i think is China calling the US' bluff, by putting the $USD into a more prominent position they're telling the US to step up to the plate in delivering on their claims. That's just a guess, i have no real idea.

I wouldn't want to park it in a CD because don't those come with the condition you can't touch it for >year, else you lose any gains on interest? I'm not really looking for interest gain, just something that can *preserve* wealth. because that's what we're gonna have to focus on should the entire currency system fall into disarray. Everything priced in fiat will take a hit.. if that happens we'll experience several months of deflation on the USD, and once the panic wears off it'll be buying season and THEN we'll see huge inflation on the USD. That's why I'm thinking about a money-market account, so i'll be ready to jump in when the getting's good. But i have 0 experience with them.. so…

>>668

> they can't lower rates because that'll further destroy faith that the USD is strong enough to be the #1 currency,

No they can't lower them because they are at 0%-0.25% right now. Historically they have sat at around 5% during normal conditions.

They will raise them this year, if not in September then in December.

>>668

A quip on the china devaluation, it's not calling the USA's bluff. It's trying to balance it's economy and put itself in a more advantageous position.

The reasoning is that china wants more focus on their manufacturing sector and this tips the balance towards that

>>631

So how does the recent renimbi adjustment factor into what you said?

>>675

yeah i'm gonna cease namefagging because i really dunno what the fuck i'm talking about

apparently the 'adjustment' was a result of the chinese gov't ceasing some artificial pressure they were putting on it, so the current movement is actually a natural process rather than some kind of further regulation.

all the smart money in china bailed out before the crash, so perhaps allowing the renminbi to float more freely is china preparing to take a more long-term stance?

i'm still paranoid about a gold-peg behind their currency, only because that'd be a deathblow to fiat money all over the globe and China is the only country positioned to do that. it'd allow them to displace the US entirely. although i'd figure Russia would want a cut of that action.

I should really finish reading Currency Wars.